Mavericks vs. Grizzlies Odds, Pick: NBA Betting Prediction (March 20)

Mavericks vs. Grizzlies Odds

Two Southwest Division rivals collide on Monday as the Dallas Mavericks visit the Memphis Grizzlies. Going into Monday's games, the Grizzlies (43-27) are tied for the second seed in the Western Conference while the Mavericks (36-35) are in the sixth seed.

The Grizzlies currently hold a 7.5-game division lead over the Mavericks. With Ja Morant out for the Grizzlies, the Mavericks had an opportunity to narrow the gap. However, they have underperformed and lost nine of their previous 14 games, including two against the Grizzlies.

While the division may be out of reach, playoff seeding still matters for Dallas as only two games separate them from the 12th seed New Orleans Pelicans.

Here’s a look at the odds, as well as a betting pick and prediction for Grizzlies vs. Mavericks.

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Will Mavericks Road Woes Continue?

The Mavericks just lost a two-game series against the Grizzlies last week, but neither Kyrie Irving nor Luka Doncic suited up for those matchups. Both Irving and Doncic are dealing with ailing injuries and listed as questionable for Monday's game.

While Irving's arrival has given the Mavericks another dynamic playmaker, it has done little for their defense, an area they have struggled with all season long. They are 23rd in Defensive Rating, per NBA Advanced Stats, and have struggled immensely with defending the paint.

The Mavericks struggle on the road: their Net Rating is 22nd (-3.4) on the road while they are 14-21 SU and 15-20 ATS away from American Airlines Arena. Another interesting trend to note: the Mavericks are 9-24-2 ATS after a win, per the Sports Data Query Language at Killer Sports.

They are an excellent 3-point shooting team – first in 3-point Rate and second in 3-point Accuracy since the All-Star Break, but the Grizzlies boast an excellent perimeter defense and are fourth in the league in 3-point percentage allowed since the All-Star Break.

Grizzlies Still Elite at Home

The Grizzlies may be without Morant, but they've managed to survive without him. They have won five of their previous six games. They are also the league's best team at home, boasting an elite 29-5 record.

Tyus Jones has filled in admirably for Morant, averaging 16.4 points, 4.4 rebounds and 8.5 assists per game in the eight games since Morant stepped away from the team. His facilitating and playmaking have benefited the entire team. Jaren Jackson Jr. has scored 25, 28 and 31 in the past three games.

Their defense has kept the magic going. The Grizzlies are second in Defensive Rating for the season and post All-Star break. They have the personnel to defend the perimeter and the interior.

They should continue to have success on offense as well – they lead the league in points in the paint, and the Mavericks are 21st in the league at points in the paint allowed since the All-Star break.

Mavericks-Grizzlies Pick

My pick is simple: back the elite home team to win again. The Grizzlies have a 29-5 record at home, and the Mavericks struggle on the road. The Grizzlies' defensive intensity will be too much for the Mavericks to match, and I expect another big game from Jackson Jr. with the Mavericks' lack of interior defense.

I make this line Grizzlies -3 with Doncic and Irving in. Both of them are listed as questionable, which gives this play some additional upside if at least one of them sits out.

Pick: Grizzlies -2

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