Bucks-Knicks Christmas Betting Guide: Value on the Over/Under?

NBA Betting Odds: Milwaukee Bucks at New York Knicks

• Spread: Bucks -9.5
• Over/Under: 224.5
• Time: 12 p.m. ET
• TV channel: ESPN

In Christmas Day's first game, the 22-10 Milwaukee Bucks will visit the lowly 9-25 Knicks, who are in the midst of a 2-8 ATS streak.

Will New York turn things around and cover the double-digit spread? Is there any value on the over/under? Our analysts dive in.

Notable Injuries

• Milwaukee Bucks: Ersan Ilyasova (nose) is without a timetable to return.
• New York Knicks: Mitchell Robinson (ankle) is out. Allonzo Trier (hamstring) is expected to play.

Notable Stats

Betting Trends to Know

Since 2005, the Knicks are 2-6 SU and 1-7 ATS on Christmas Day, including 0-5 ATS as an underdog and failing to cover by seven points per game. — John Ewing

Between 2002 and 2008, the Knicks didn’t play at home on Christmas Day. In the last decade, the Knicks are 1-7 against-the-spread at home on Christmas, failing to cover the spread by 5.1 PPG, making New York the least-profitable home team on Christmas in the Bet Labs database.

Since 2005, only three teams have been larger than a seven-point underdog at home on Christmas Day:

• 2015: Lakers (+12.5) vs. Clippers, Lost by 10
• 2013: Knicks (+10.5) vs. Thunder, Lost by 29
• 2013: Lakers (+9.5) vs. Heat, Lost by 6 — Evan Abrams

Locky: Why I Like the Over/Under

This spread is a little higher than what I have from a strict modeling standpoint, but considering the circumstances, it looks about right to me.

The Bucks are coming off a really embarrassing game. They went to Miami on the second night of a back-to-back, played as sluggishly as they have all season, Giannis played one of his worst games and they almost came back to win.

The team was frustrated. It was their worst offensive game of the season efficiency-wise, per Cleaning the Glass, and they haven’t played two really poor offensive games consecutively all season.

It is unlikely you will get a poor effort from them here, which is troublesome for the Knicks. A double-digit spread is reasonable, and considering the game might be lower-scoring than some would expect (and therefore have fewer possessions), I wouldn’t bet Milwaukee at more than the posted 10/10.5.

The interesting thing here is the total, and it would be hard to pass up the under. Of course, we’ve all read about the under trends on Christmas, but this one is of particular note because of the most recent meeting between the teams.

On Dec. 1, the Knicks beat Milwaukee 136-134 (in OT) in a really high-scoring, fun game. But that is quite unlikely to happen again. It was the worst defensive game by the Bucks this whole month, and New York had a hilariously-unrepeatable 63.2% effective field-goal percentage.

Partly due to that game, you are getting a really high Christmas noon game total here at 228. Considering the likelihood the Bucks really stifle New York off a sloppy effort, and the unlikely chance New York can repeat its success against Milwaukee, I would bet the under in the first game of the day.— Ken Barkley

Mears: The Knicks Should Struggle to Score

Over the last month, the Knicks have been absolutely atrocious, sitting dead last in the NBA with a -11.4 point differential. They're 24th on offense and 29th on defense in that span.

They've had just three wins over the last month, and they're in the midst of a poor 2-8 ATS stretch over their last 10 games. Although it may seem enticing to take a double-digit home favorite, just realize how bad the Knicks have been. The Suns have been a laughing stock — and the Knicks somehow have worse metrics!

Overall, since 2005 double-digit home dogs have gone 153-140-3 (52.2%) ATS. That said, over going an impressive 25-9 in this spot in the 2016-17 season, those teams have gone just 14-19 over the last two seasons. The Knicks since the beginning of last season have been in this spot five times, and they've gone 1-4 ATS.

If I had a lean, it would be Milwaukee -10. But like Locky said above, I think the total is probably more interesting. There's no doubt the Bucks will be able to put up points, but I'm skeptical the Knicks will be able to hang on the offensive end of the floor.

The Knicks just don't have a ton of paths to easy buckets. They're 24th in transition frequency, and that actually goes down with Mitchell Robinson off the floor (he's out with an ankle injury). They don't take a ton of 3-pointers, and in particular they rank 29th in frequency of shots from the corner.

The Bucks pack the paint defensively, ranking first in frequency of opponent shots at the rim. They funnel teams to long mid-rangers or 3-pointers, and the Knicks will have no problems turning to those long-2s, which just aren't an efficient way to keep up with Milwaukee.

One area the Knicks have done well is pounding the offensive glass, especially in the half court. That's a problem because, well, the Bucks are first in the league in defensive rebound rate. They're also first in opponent free throw rate. You get the picture: Nothing offensively will come easily for the Knicks.

Of course, like they did earlier in the season, the Knicks could get hot: They hit 58.8% of their 3-pointers — the 98th percentile of all games this year. They went 58.6% from non-corner-3s (98th percentile) and 60.0% from the corner (84th). You want to bet on that happening again? I certainly don't.

Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.