The Minnesota Timberwolves (1-0) and San Antonio Spurs (0-1) will clash in Game 2 of the NBA Western Conference Semifinals tonight. Tipoff is set for 9:30 p.m. ET from the Frost Bank Center in San Antonio, Texas. The game will broadcast live on ESPN.
The Spurs are 9.5-point favorites over the Wolves on the spread (Spurs -9.5), with the over/under set at 215.5 total points. San Antonio is a -395 favorite to win outright on the moneyline, while Minnesota is listed at +310 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Timberwolves vs. Spurs predictions and NBA picks for Game 2 on Wednesday, May 6.
Timberwolves vs Spurs Prediction
- Timberwolves vs Spurs pick: Spurs -9.5 (-115, DraftKings)
My Timberwolves vs. Spurs Game 2 best bet is on San Antonio to cover the spread. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NBA odds page.
Timberwolves vs Spurs Odds for Game 2
| Timberwolves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9.5 -105 | 215.5 -110o / -110u | +310 |
| Spurs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9.5 -115 | 215.5 -110o / -110u | -395 |
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Timberwolves vs Spurs NBA Playoffs Game 2 Preview
Minnesota Timberwolves Betting Preview, Analysis
I’m a bad Wolves fan, and I expect bad things, so maybe this is just ingrained in me, but I didn't think the Timberwolves would have enough juice to get the job done right off the bat in Game 1. They proved me wrong, but let’s look at how they did it.
Outside of a monstrous 35-point scoring burst in the fourth quarter, the Minnesota offense was putrid in the series opener. The Wolves' quarter-by-quarter scoring for the first 36 minutes was 24, 21, and 24. That is a full-game pace of 92 points; and a half-game pace of just 46.
The Wolves found a trump card late in Game 1 by going to a small-ball lineup with Naz Reid and Julius Randle. It pulled Victor Wembanyama away from the rim and allowed them to steal a game they probably had no business winning.
But here’s the thing about trump cards: you can't play them every single hand. Rudy Gobert has to play. This Minnesota team is built on defense, and they take it very seriously.
The biggest concern for the Timberwolves right now is Anthony Edwards. He looked great for a little while—scoring 18 points in 25 minutes off the bench—but he was clearly jogging by the end of the game. Now he has to play again coming off just one day of rest.
If the Wolves fall behind early in Game 2, why would they push him? If you’re down 18 in the fourth, you pack it up, save Ant’s legs, and head home to Minnesota for Game 3. I expect the Wolves to struggle to find that same offensive success again today.
San Antonio Spurs Betting Preview, Analysis
The Spurs are in what I consider an auto-bet spot. I live for Bet Labs trends like these. Since 2003, home teams in Game 2 who are down 0-1 in the series are 53-36-3 against the spread. That’s a 60% clip. It’s a great starting point, but we can get much more specific than that.
The real trend is this: Game 2 home teams who lost Game 1 as a favorite of seven points or more. This isn't just any 0-1 deficit; this is a team that was labeled by the market as a significant favorite and suffered a shock home loss. In that scenario, the home team is 26-12 against the spread (68%) and they cover the spread by an average of six points per game.
We all thought the Spurs were the better team coming into this series. They are younger, they are healthier, and they are dominant at home.
Everything about the situational spot suggests San Antonio is going to punch back with everything they have. The Spurs choked in the fourth quarter of Game 1, and historically, double-digit favorites who choke away a fourth quarter lead in Game 1 are 5-0 straight up in Game 2 with an average margin of victory of 24 points.
Timberwolves vs Spurs Pick, Betting Analysis
Spurs Spread Escalator
Because I expect a big bounce-back for the Spurs here, I’m not just playing the standard Spurs -9.5. I don't love laying nearly 10 points at -110 odds in the playoffs. If I’m betting on a team to win by double digits already, I have to look at the escalators.
In the modern NBA, once a team is up by 10+ points in the second half of a playoff game, the other team often lets go of the rope. We saw the Knicks win by 39 in Game 1 against Philly; blowout margins are the story of the postseason.
The Spurs are built for blowouts; 37% of their wins this season were by 15 points or more, and 21% were by 20 points or more. They already did that twice in the first round.
Conversely, Minnesota has shown a tendency to collapse once things get ugly—seven of their 10 losses by 15+ this season ended up being 20-point losses.
If the Spurs are right, they are going to be really right. I am playing this escalator across DraftKings and bet365:
- Spurs -14.5 (+178 at DraftKings): Historically, teams in this spot win by 15+ nearly half the time (47%). This should be closer to even-money.
- Spurs -19.5 (+400 at bet365): We hit this 24% of the time within the parameters of this trend. That's great value at +400.
- Spurs -29.5 (+950 at bet365): If Minnesota pulls Ant and prepares for Game 3, this could land in the 30s. It's worth a nibble.
Timberwolves Team Total Mineshaft
If you think the Spurs roll, you probably also think the Wolves will struggle to score. So, I’m taking the Timberwolves First Half Team Total Under 50.5.
I played the wrong version of this in Game 1, but the read was correct: Minnesota’s offense is not functional right now outside of that one small-ball burst.
Through three quarters in Game 1, they were on pace for a 92-point game. I’m playing the mineshaft on this because I think the first half will be particularly jarring for them as San Antonio ratchets up the defensive intensity.
Here is how I’m attacking the Wolves' scoring struggles:
- 1H Team Total Under 46.5 (+185 at bet365): This was their actual pace in Game 1.
- 1H Team Total Under 40.5 (+650 at bet365): Just in case we get an ugly first half where nothing falls.
- Under 50.5 Both Halves (+330 at DraftKings): This is a bet on Minnesota never finding that fourth-quarter burst. If the game isn't close, there is no reason for Minnesota to make a push late.
- Under 45.5 Both Halves (+1200 at DraftKings): The ultimate mineshaft play. If the Spurs shut them down early and run away with it, the Wolves might not even crack 90 points.
We saw this happen with the Spurs against the Blazers—San Antonio goes on a run, totally shuts down the opponent, and the game ends in the 80s or 90s. If Edwards isn't his true self and the Spurs are locked in, Minnesota might be in for a very long Game 2.
Brandon Anderson's Timberwolves vs Spurs Game 2 Best Bets
- Spurs -9.5 (-115) / -14.5 (+178) / -19.5 (+400) / -29.5 (+950)
- Timberwolves First Half Team Total Under 50.5 (-110)
- Timberwolves Team Total Under 50.5 Both Halves (+330)
- Timberwolves Team Total Under 45.5 Both Halves (+1200)
