Monday’s Best NBA Player Props: Bet on Buddy Hield in Pace-Up Spot
Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Sacramento Kings guard Buddy Hield (24).
- Monday's nine-game NBA slate features three player prop bets offering value.
- This piece will focus on Kings SG Buddy Hield, Bucks C Brook Lopez and Thunder G Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
Betting on props can be one of the easiest ways to build your bankroll. Sportsbooks tend to offer lower limits and take less action on props than they do on games, so they don’t have as much incentive to post an accurate line.
That’s where our Player Prop tool comes in handy. We compare our industry-leading NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks to identify the best plays each day. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
Odds as of Monday afternoon. Check out DraftKings, where Action Network users get a risk-free bet up to $500.
How about a little reminder on just how impressively these bets did last season? Props with a Bet Quality of 10 posted a win rate of 60.31%, and props with a Bet Quality of nine won at a 58.82% clip.
As is the case with most sports, betting on unders proved to be more profitable than betting on overs last season:
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 10: 341-172 (66.47%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 9: 457-273 (62.6%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 8: 898-589 (60.39%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 7: 1447-1086 (57.13%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 6: 1992-1663 (54.95%)
Overall, if you just blind bet every under with a Bet Quality of eight or higher, you would’ve won at a 62.1% clip on more than 2,700 bets.
Tonight’s props come from three of the slate’s nine games:
- Sacramento Kings at Houston Rockets: 8 p.m. ET
- Orlando Magic at Milwaukee Bucks: 8 p.m. ET on NBA TV
- Oklahoma City Thunder at Utah Jazz: 9 p.m. ET
Let’s dive in.
Kings SG Buddy Hield
THE PICK: Over 4.5 rebounds (-143)
The Kings look like a great over team today, and Hield is one of my favorites. They’re taking on the Houston Rockets, who have played at the fastest pace in the league this season. The Kings have been the slowest team in basketball, making this the most extreme pace-up spot possible.
Hield has also played a ton of minutes recently for the shorthanded Kings. They’re currently without De’Aaron Fox and Marvin Bagley III, and Hield has played at least 36.2 minutes in eight of his past nine games. He’s coming off just four rebounds in his last contest, but he grabbed at least five boards in each of his five previous games.
This line seems way underpriced given Hield’s combination of matchup and recent performance. I like the over up to -175.
Bucks C Brook Lopez
THE PICK: Under 10.5 points (-125)
The Bucks are an absolute juggernaut at the moment. They rank second in offensive efficiency and first in defensive efficiency, resulting in a ridiculous Net Rating of +12.9 points per 100 possessions. That’s +3.5 more points than the Lakers and Mavericks, who are tied for second with a mark of +9.4. They’ve won 14 straight games, and they’re currently 12.5-point favorites tonight vs. the Orlando Magic.
With that in mind, don’t expect to see a ton of Lopez in this contest. He’s played just 24.7 and 18.1 minutes in two games since returning from injury, and he’s not expected to play much more than that today. Lopez has played 26 minutes or fewer in 10 contests this season, and he’s recorded single-digit points in seven of them.
Points should also be difficult for Lopez to come by when he is on the court. The Magic rank ninth in defensive efficiency, and they’ve played at the second-slowest pace in the league.
There are lots of different ways for us to win this prop. Lopez could play reduced minutes in a blowout. He could have an off shooting night. This game could be played at a snail-like pace. I’m willing to roll the dice up to -140.
Thunder G Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
THE PICK: Over 4.5 rebounds (-100)
SGA is definitely capable of filling up the stat sheet, including the rebound category. He’s pulled down at least five boards in three of his past four games, and he’s grabbed at least nine boards in two of those contests. Overall, he’s averaging 4.6 rebounds per 36 minutes this season.
He should also see a boost in value on the glass today with Danilo Gallinari out of the lineup. He’s seen a team-high boost of +0.9% to his rebound rate with Gallo off the court this season. That may not seem like much, but it increases his rebound production to 6.3 boards per 36 minutes. He’s played at least 36.3 minutes in each of his past three games, and he’s eclipsed 38.2 minutes in the past two.
SGA has a tough matchup today vs. the Jazz, but the Gallo injury is creating enough value for me to take the over. I would play it up to -125.