Angles for Sunday's games based on matchups and trends…
Mavericks at Wolves
- Spread: Mavericks -7.5
- Over/Under: 244.5
- Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
THE ANGLE: The Mavericks are elite in shootouts
Let's build a framework, here. The Mavericks and Wolves are both rotten defensive teams. Dallas is 18th defensively, the Wolves are 20th. That's why the total is so high, up at 244.5. It is the 21st game this season with a total over 240, the most for any season in our database going back to 2003.
Now, the under in those games is 13-8, because, well, it's hard to hit that kind of number on both sides. But I can't reasonably tell you to take the under, here. The Timberwolves, for example, are dead last, 30th in the NBA in defensive rating since their trade deadline moves, sending out Robert Covington, Gorgui Dieng, and, I guess, Andrew Wiggins. They're giving up 119. I can't reasonably back the under.
However, here's what we know: this is going to be a shootout. And Dallas is great in those games against the spread. Dallas hasn't had a total over 240 this season. But in games where the total is above 230, they are 9-3 ATS. Dallas is +2.2 in ATS +/- vs. teams with a bottom-ten defensive rating this season per Cleaning The Glass, with a point differential of 7.9.
Meanwhile, Minnesota is -8.2 in spread differential vs. top-ten offensive teams.
Now, an important caveat. Luka Doncic is questionable with a thumb injury. If he doesn't play, this line likely drops. If it stays at 7.5 without Doncic, I don't love it. But if it moves at least 1.5, I still like Dallas in this spot. They are just too good with too many weapons vs. teams like the Wolves. The Wolves without Karl-Anthony Towns don't have the firepower to hang.
THE PLAY: Mavericks -7.5 if Doncic plays, -6 or shorter if Doncic is out
Pistons at Kings
- Spread: Pistons -8
- Over/Under: 216.5
- Time: 6 p.m. ET
THE ANGLE: Warped perceptions
The Kings are 0-4 as a home favorite vs. East teams this season. Detroit has fallen off a cliff since their team imploded at the trade deadline; they're 1-7 straight up since, with a bottom-five offensive rating. But the Kings are 3-8 as a home favorite this season.
Sacramento is all over the place in their performance profile. I don't think there's value on the Kings at this number.
But I like the under. The under is 6-2 for the Kings in games vs. teams under 40% win percentage with a total below 220. Sacramento is 12th this season in defensive rating vs. bottom-10 offensive teams; they beat up on teams that can't score. The Kings' offensive profile is inconsistent, and the Pistons are surprisingly not-terrible there. They're basically middle of the pack, even since trading all their good players.
It's a low total at 216.5, but I think one or both of these teams land pretty close to 100.
THE PLAY: Under 216.5
Raptors at Nuggets
- Spread: Nuggets -3.5
- Over/Under: 218
- Time: 6 p.m. ET
THE PLAY: Duel of the fates
Man, talk about an impossible spot. The Raptors, coming off two losses, on the road vs. a Nuggets team that is 8-4 straight up but just 5-7 ATS vs. teams with a winning percentage over 60% this season at home.
Both of these teams are superb vs. bad teams and pretty-good-not-great vs. great teams, as you would expect. The Raptors are 7-5-1 ATS as a road dog.
There's probably value on the Raptors against the spread and on the Nuggets on the moneyline at -160. It's close, but Denver has been great at home and the Raptors are just 5-11 straight up with a -3.4 point differential vs. teams with a top-ten offensive rating.
Denver has also been in very few shootouts with good teams this season. The under is 8-4 in Nuggets games at Pepsi Center vs. opponents with a winning percentage over 60% this season:
The Raptors are without Fred VanVleet which could further hurt their offense. I think the best plays are the under, followed by Nuggets moneyline and then Raptors ATS.
THE PLAY: Under 218, Nuggets ML
Wizards at Warriors
- Spread: Wizards -6.5
- Over/Under: 231.5
- Time: 8:30 p.m. ET
THE ANGLE: A great Wizards spot
The Wizards are never road favorites, so we have almost no sample on them. However, they are 4-2 this season vs teams bottom-10 in both offense and defense, which Golden State most assuredly is.
The Wizards are much better on the road vs. bad teams; they are 3-1 ATS. Golden State is giving up a 60% effective field goal percentage to catch-and-shoot opportunities, the worst in the league. Golden State is 14-25 vs. teams that score over 110 points per game, and the over is 27-11 in those games.
The Wizards should bomb from deep vs. an absolute joke of a Warriors team that just beat the Suns. I don't trust them to win two in a row.
THE PLAY: Wizards -6.5, over 231.5
