Moore’s Win Total Projections For All 30 NBA Teams

The NBA season is officially underway. Here's where I project each team based on my power rating to determine how much each team should be favored against a neutral opponent on a neutral court, built out over 82 games.

These projections are based on last year's results, adjusted for offseason losses and additions, injury changes and expectations, and other weighted factors. My projections are team level, focusing on halfcourt and transition offense and defense.

You'll notice several teams tied here, which isn't out of place as teams typically wind up in win tiers separated by a handful of games.

You'll notice I don't project any team to have over 50 wins this season. That's unlikely, but bear in mind only two teams, Denver and Memphis, finished over 50 last season.

The Grizzlies are missing Ja Morant for 25 games and Steven Adams and Brandon Clarke for the entire season.

Denver overperformed their Pythagorean expectation last year. Based on point differential, they were expected to win 50.1 games. So the No.1 seed last season should have won just one more game than my No.1 here. This reflects the truncated, high-parity state of the league and the West in particular.

The result is a fairly clear projection at the top and a messy middle of teams that likely swing wildly in one direction or another based on health.

One thing the projections cannot do is accurately represent swings based on ideal outcomes. For example, as you'll read below, the Clippers and Pelicans projections are firmly in the middle of their real potential outcomes.

Let's look at each team and see where the projections would have me bet their over/under. Let's start with the West.

(Win total average based on lines from six sportsbooks.)

Western Conference

The Suns are one of the most challenging teams for me to project. How much do I even consider last season's performance? They were injured for most of the season, and 8-0 with Kevin Durant and Booker in the regular season.

I'm bearish on their offense relative to expectations. They have immense firepower, but they were one of the lowest 3-point rate teams among contenders last season. No Frank Vogel team has averaged more 3-point makes per 100 possessions than their opponents since 2014.

I'm slightly bullish on their defensive capacity after adding Keita Bates-Diop to go with Josh Okogie on the wing. Still, Jusuf Nurkic is a downgrade defensively from Deandre Ayton, by my estimation.

The Suns will be an excellent team, but 50 wins, given Durant's injury history, is a touch optimistic. I haven't bet on it; Phoenix's ceiling is very high. But betting on other teams to win the division holds value.

My best bet of any in the futures market, the Nuggets under stood out to me from the jump when the market opened.

After losing Bruce Brown and Jeff Green in free agency, Denver's gambit is that they can manage not just this season but future seasons better by investing in young talent and developing them than by trying to find short-term answers with end-of-career veterans.

The result is a bench almost entirely made of players who can't rent a car under the 25-and-under rules.

The front office wisely figures that even with the inexperience, the bench will likely not be worse than the non-Jokic minutes last season, which saw Denver lose those minutes by a startling 10 points per 100 possessions. "The bench can't be worse. It can only be better" is not a flawed premise.

The problem lies in the stagger rotations. Jamal Murray will once again stagger with the second unit. They'll lose those minutes; that's fine. The issue is that when Murray went to the bench in the first and third quarters last year, Bruce Brown was his replacement. Now it's Reggie Jackson. Those minutes last year were +13 because Brown, with the starters (Jokic), crushed teams.

Will the same be true of Reggie Jackson in that spot? They'll be positive; on average, Jokic crushes every minute he's on the floor. But that lowers the margin of error for the bench.

The same is true for injury situations. Jeff Green would step in if Michael Porter Jr. or Aaron Gordon needed a night off. The Jeff Green minutes without Jokic were a disaster, but the Jokic-Green minutes had a decently high floor thanks to Green's experience. Will the same be true if it's Peyton Watson?

The good news is that Julian Strawther looks like another draft hit, Justin Holliday can provide emergency minutes, and if Zeke Nnaji can stay healthy (always a perilous proposition), maybe the non-Jokic minutes are better than the -10 per 100 possessions last season.

Denver will still be great, but their focus is on being ready to defend their title in June, not secure seeding. I've bumped them up off a strong preseason but still have them under.

I had Memphis as the No.1 team in the West with 50 wins before the Steven Adams injury news. Without Adams, their offensive and defensive ceiling drops.

I still think this will be a great team. Essentially, you need to know that the Grizzlies are 35-15 the last two seasons when Ja Morant does not play. They slid to 11-10 last season, but even that gets them within striking range for this over when Morant returns.

The Grizzlies' defense is three points per 100 possessions better without Morant, even as the offense slides. Those numbers are significantly worse without Adams but still very good in the Jaren Jackson Jr. minutes.

With the addition of former DPOY Marcus Smart, Memphis figures to be elite defensively again.

Taylor Jenkins has discussed changes to the offensive philosophy to help address their bottom-10-ranked half-court offense.

Ziaire Williams has shown some pre-season pop, which would significantly impact the rotation if it can carry over to the regular season.

The Grizzlies will still get Morant for 57 games minus injuries (factor roughly 15 games with Morant's playstyle). Their margin for error is thin at this point, but the roster is still top-end on both ends of the floor, and they are being downgraded too much by the market.

I don't feel great about this win total landing within two wins of my number. It feels like the Lakers will either be a 53-plus-win heavyweight or slide back into the 45-wins range and just be an als0-ran. Being in the middle feels unlikely, given the roster.

Do you trust a 39-year-old LeBron to stay healthy? Do you trust Anthony Davis to stay healthy? Can the improved roster hold them up to around or above .500 when one or the other is out?

I upgraded the Lakers by four wins based on last year's projection, which factors an average health projection for James and Davis and the improved roster after the midseason trades (plus the additions in the offseason of Taurean Prince and Gabe Vincent).

Davis has said he wants to play 82 games and worked on his jumper in the offseason. Those two things alone would carry them over. But if Davis and James play their average number of games together that they've played the last three seasons (35), and the March run they went on was more about how funky the league is, then an under is very possible.

If you like the Lakers, play their division title odds. This roster isn't as good as it's talked about, but the fit around the Big Two is better, and James and company seem as motivated as they've been since 2019.

The Wolves won 42 games last season, with Karl-Anthony Towns playing 29 games. This number is bonkers. They are a well-coached team with rim protection, shooting, and a true star in Anthony Edwards.

They found their identity towards the end of last season and are filled with a capable roster of professionals instead of the knucklehead group from a few years ago.

Their baseline projection from last season, with Towns out all that time, still had them over at 45 wins. I upgraded them to 2.8 wins based on Towns' return and some internal development.

This over is one of my best bets, and I also like their division odds.

I lean under, but not enough to make it an official lean. I gave the Warriors a generous bump in their power rating based on getting Andrew Wiggins back after last season's absence for personal reasons and the upgrade of Chris Paul over Jordan Poole.

Paul's worst season for Estimated Plus-Minus (last season) was still better than Poole's best season (the 2022 title season).

Jonathan Kuminga may be finally making the leap, and Gary Payton II's healthy season may improve their bench.

The Warriors were also the worst ATS road team since numbers are available to be tracked last season. Their defense mysteriously fell off a cliff on the road, and it seems unlikely that bizarre quirk continues.

There's an urgency with this team that's evident in interviews. Not only may this be Chris Paul's last good chance to win a ring as a top-six rotation player, but there's an understanding that time's running out on the Splash Brothers era with Klay Thompson's upcoming free agency.

But to get to the over, you must believe nothing about last year's team will carry over. They'll return to their consistency, the defense will stabilize, and most importantly, Steph Curry and Draymond Green will stay healthy.

Last season, the Warriors kept trying to reach for that fastball, that knockout punch, that superpower that has made them the best team in the league over the past nine seasons. And for the first time, it wasn't always there. I wonder whether they can rediscover it and what happens if Superman can't leap tall buildings any longer.

My numbers think the Mavericks are a pretty basic sub-contender. Great offense, mediocre defense. Should win more than 45 but less than 50 games. By this evaluation, I should play the under.

I'm terrified of this number.

The Mavericks went overseas for preseason, playing in Abu Dhabi and then stopping off in Barcelona to play Real Madrid before returning home. Teams that travel to the Middle East or further East for preseason have gone 13-5-2 to the under on their win total in the past 11 seasons. It messes with your conditioning and preseason rhythm, teams who have made the trip say.

The Mavericks intend to start either one (Derek Lively) or two (Lively and OMax Prosper) rookies. This is a lot to ask for a team looking to contend.

The offense will be great, though. Kyrie Irving and Luka Doncic will provide minutes with a 120+ offensive rating. Can a defense cobbled together with an undersized power-forward defensive specialist (Grant Williams) and a mishmash of uninspiring veterans and unrealized potential get their defense above 20th?

Teams that finished bottom-ten in defense have gone 46-33 to the under the last 11 seasons; bottom-ten defenses with a win total of more than 44 have gone 11-4 to the under.

Numbers say over; instinct says under. I'll pass.

I was set to make a small play on the over, but their worrisome preseason (1-3, -3.9 net rating) has me a little spooked.

My numbers projected the Kings at 46 wins vs. their actual total of 48 last season. But I also can't find any reason to downgrade them.

They lost Richaun Holmes, but was a negative for them. They added JaVale McGee to replace him, which is fine. They also added Chris Duarte, a slight upgrade as a bench scorer, and drafted some promising players. The core: De'Aaron Fox, Domantas Sabonis, Harrison Barnes, Keegan Murray, and Kevin Huerter, all return.

Euro addition Sasha Vezenkov is talked about as the best shooter on the team, which is saying something.

Sacramento probably won't finish with a top-three seed again, and they may find this season more difficult after an outlier good-health year in 2022-23.

But there's very little hard evidence to suggest a sub-44-win season.

This number isn't correct. The Clippers will win more or fewer games than this, but probably not within three of it in either direction. It's the same thing for my projection, which is dead on.

The Clippers are healthy and try, and they win 50+.

The Clippers are not healthy and load manage again, and they finish around .500.

Notably, I gave the Clippers a bump in power rating based on a small assumption Paul George and Kawhi Leonard will be more available than last year, and Russell Westbrook and Bones Hyland both gave them a bump.

They may also add James Harden, who still represents a talent upgrade despite all his baggage.

I have bet the division number at +550; if you're going to bet on this team, bet bigger than this. But passing on them is a wise decision as well.

I think it's good every year to have teams you bet over just because you believe in them. This is mine this year.

I gave OKC only a conservative one-point bump. They didn't add any key veteran players; the bump comes from Chet Holmgren, what should be a willingness to pursue a playoff spot instead of prioritizing health and rest, and internal development from Josh Giddey and Jalen Williams.

But that should be enough. This team is dangerous and exceptionally well-coached. Their pathways to the over outnumber the pathways to the under, and with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander at the helm, I feel confident enough to play the projected over.

Like the Clippers, they'll either be 5+ over or -5 under this figure on the actual and projected figures.

I love this team's potential if healthy. With Zion Williamson at point forward, their combination of defense, athleticism, and scoring makes them as dangerous as any team beneath the top tier.

But Trey Murphy is already out with injury, and the Pelicans have been unable to keep the role players, much less Zion, on the floor.

If you think they can get the injury luck they need, bet the division, bet their seeding, bet playoff futures on them, bet Zion MVP or Willie Green COY. Otherwise, this isn't worth messing with.

Utah was solid last season before it pivoted to its future and traded Mike Conley, Malik Beasley, and Jared Vanderbilt.

The question is whether I should upgrade them, given how they sat players for draft position late in the year, keep them even, or downgrade them, given their late-season swoon.

Ultimately, I downgraded them slightly based on the continued league talk that they have put Collin Sexton and Talen Horton-Tucker in various trade proposals. Utah is still in asset-accumulation mode.

But also, they're well-coached, and Lauri Markkanen is a legit scoring centerpiece. It's better to wait and see what this team intends to do and then bet them in-season for playoff futures.

My projections see a healthy gap against the win total. But that assumes the team is playing all its players and trying to win. The odds are high that Portland will shift to focusing on draft capital to find talent next to Scoot Henderson.

They do have NBA players on this roster, though. Anfernee Simons, Jerami Grant, Deandre Ayton, Matisse Thybulle, Robert Williams, Malcolm Brogdon, Shaedon Sharpe. Those seven plus Scoot make an eight-man rotation of players who will all be in the league in three years.

But how many will still be on Portland after the trade deadline? It's much safer to stay away for now and if they get off to a good start, bet the under in-season given the logic of them pivoting towards a further rebuild.

I was an under on this team initially but bumped them up enough in preseason after watching them to want an over.

Ime Udoka has the Rockets playing with structure, discipline, and identity. Those things with the talent on this roster after shelling out in free agency are enough to give an over bet value.

The veterans like Fred VanVleet, Dillon Brooks, and Jock Landale will set boundaries for the young talent, who will be put in better positions to contribute and optimize their skills.

Houston's problem hasn't been talent; it's been professionalism and approach. Both things look radically improved.

An under is tempting, given this team's age, inexperience, and roster makeup. They are plotting for the long run with Wembanyama and will be as patient as needed.

That said… you've seen the highlights. You know what this kid looks capable of. I'm not betting against a player who looks like the kind of transformational presence Wemby does.

There's talent on the roster. They actively ensured it didn't play together last season to ensure their draft position. Just an effort to not get in their own way might get an over. But they might again want draft equity over regular-season momentum.

Eastern Conference

It's a very different picture from the West. We have four teams over 50 here.

You're probably wondering how I have the Bucks below the Cavaliers. My numbers hated the Bucks last year and believed they weren't nearly as good as their record. That's not just my numbers, either. Most analytic projections on them wound up with figures that showed the Bucks probably won more games last year than they "should" have.

So even after a massive upgrade on them, I'm left with a team in 3rd place. Do I think the Bucks will finish behind the Cavaliers? No, I don't. But the Bucks' roster is not noticeably better than last year's outside of, you know, the top-five offensive player they added.

They also gave up Jrue Holiday in that deal. If I bump the Bucks up five points in power rating by adding Damian Lillard, how many do I reduce them for losing Holiday? What's the net between the two?

Ultimately, I was generous and bumped the Bucks a net of two points, landing them just under 52 wins.

This is despite an aging roster and a rookie head coach.

You'll notice I'm extremely bullish on the Pacers with big upgrades after adding Bruce Brown and expecting a return to where they were at midseason, competing for a playoff spot. I wanted to upgrade the Hawks more for a full season with Quin Snyder, but the loss of John Collins without much in the way of replacement value limited how much I could bump them.

This also projects a competitive race for the 6th seed, with seven teams within seven games of the 6th-seed Pacers.

Here are my projections and analysis on the East.

The projections think this is the best team in the league, and the team most likely to reach 60+ wins.

I have Boston substantially upgraded from last year's mark (when they were the best team by my numbers). Kristaps Porzingis was substantially better last season than Marcus Smart. That's not true for their careers, and they may very well swap back this season. But for now, that's an upgrade. Jrue Holiday over Malcolm Brogdon and the sparse games the Celtics had Robert Williams is also an upgrade.

I will cop to some reservations after the Holiday trade. Holiday didn't want to be traded to Boston. Their depth, both at point guard and center, is now paper thin. They're banking considerably on Payton Pritchard to contribute to a top-level team. Something about the situation bugs me.

But the number clearly says over and by margin. Boston should be favored vs. any team in the league on neutral court.

This is deciding to brave the wind and weather to ski downhill in the dark during a blizzard.

All the conversation is about how Donovan Mitchell won't be a Cavalier at the end of his free agency in 2025. It's described as the worst-kept secret in the league by folks like Bill Simmons and Brian Windhorst (who has extensive Cleveland ties).

There has also been chatter the Cavaliers may look to deal Jarrett Allen. While many doubt their two-big alignment as the pathway towards title contention, the results have still been excellent. Still, they may trade Allen and move Mobley to center full-time.

In short, everything that makes this bet enticing may be altered permanently by the deadline.

But we have this team right now, which is a great team (in the regular season).

Mitchell's numbers are underrated; he's one of the best offensive engines in the league. I'm not necessarily banking on big leaps from Mobley offensively; the cart is well before the horse in his case. Garland is a dynamic No.2 in the backcourt, Allen is one of the most efficient rim finishers in the league, and they added Max Strus and Georges Niang to provide stable shooting wings.

This is an elite defense, and top-3 defenses are 25-7-1 to the over in the last eleven years.

Fortune favors the bold. Or in this case, the Cavalier.

Damian Lillard and Giannis Antetokounmpo. How is that not the best team in the league?

As I said above, the Bucks' performance last year forecasted a worse team than their win/loss indicated. They won 58. Their Pythagorean expected win total was 51.9. This is a three-win bump. That sounds light for adding Lillard, but again, it's adding Lillard and losing Holiday.

That's an upgrade; the notion floated in some circles that Holiday is more impactful is nonsense.

But do you think it should be two wins into the 55-plus range? That's a big jump, believe it or not, especially when you get to this win total altitude. For what it's worth, teams with a win total of 54.5 or higher have gone 21-12 to the under in the past eleven years.

If you think they stay healthy and everything clicks, I don't blame you for betting the over. But I have bets on the under and recommend against overs.

How am I supposed to project anything with this team?

You can make the argument that even starting with last year's numbers is flawed for a number of reasons. But most of those teams will be somewhat similar year over year.

The Sixers have a new coach, lost significant role players, and, oh, that's right, their second-best player is away from the team due to personal reasons and simultaneously in a standoff with the team following a trade demand as he feels the team backed out on a make-good agreement to trade him, specifically to the Clippers for Terrance Mann and some picks.

So yeah, there's a lot of variance here.

The bones of this ship, so to speak, are still good.

Embiid is the reigning MVP and no matter your feelings on last year's vote, he's one of the most dominant regular-season offensive players in the league. PJ Tucker single-handedly wrecks possessions defensively. Tobias Harris is underrated. Tyrese Maxey is one year late on a breakout season that feels inevitable. Nurse is well regarded as a tactical genius even if his manner can be abrasive.

The number feels soft if Harden was simply out with injury. But he's not, and the tapestry is a lot more complicated from Daryl Morey to Embiid on down.

This one doesn't require much discussion. I think the Knicks will be a playoff team, a good squad. The number is sharp. There's upside if things go sideways and they pull off a major trade, but there's not much value in trying to anticipate how trades will shake out.

Just ask my Miami title futures bet after Damian Lillard's trade demand.

Indiana was 20-17 on January 1st, sixth in the East. A brutally young team learning its identity was sixth in the East. Since then, they have added players like Bruce Brown and Obi Toppin, who both fit their fast-paced identity and help reduce sloppiness. Their young players have a year of development. And it's pretty evident that this team, as it often does under Herb Simon, wants to compete for a playoff spot.

The finishing figures for Indiana were skewed by decisions they made with draft equity in mind. Upgrading for that and the roster, I like this team into the 40's.

You know what sounds more fun than betting against Erik Spoelstra with a team that almost missed the playoffs with a negative point differential who wound up in the NBA Finals?

Literally anything. Anything sounds more fun than that. Let's just keep it moving.

My numbers are probably a little too skeptical of Hawks improvement. Part of the reason they didn't jump more with the addition of Quin Snyder for a full preseason is the trade of John Collins for almost nothing. That's a pure loss of a player who struggled last year but still brings production to the table.

Still, with Snyder who has coached a top pick-and-roll offense in Utah and will likely help with their defensive principles, and internal improvement from Onyeka Okongwu, Saddiq Bey, and AJ Griffin, there's a lot of runway for this team to compete for the division.

I wish my projection had them higher so I could bet stronger on them.

They won 40 last year and beat their opening win total over. They didn't lose anyone significant in the rotation. Billy Donovan dragged this team to a top-6 defensive rating.

They dealt with uncertainty about Lonzo Ball all year and added JeVon Carter. Coby White seems to have turned a corner in point guard play. DeRozan will still play a ton of games and be regular-season good.

This doesn't seem difficult.

Oh, and ownership always wants the playoff revenue and never wants to rebuild.

Orlando won 34 games last season. This would be a max play if they'd managed to sign or trade for a point guard like they attempted to, but as it stands, there's enough internal improvement expected to project an over with this number still.

Franz Wagner will make some waves in the MIP conversation, and Paolo Banchero's shooting percentages probably improve. They've committed to better offensive process this season (though they're still struggling to produce enough 3-point attempts). Any marginal improvement gets them over this figure.

It's too tight for a play but there are a lot of windows for an over here. The Nets are a Frankenstein's monster, cobbled together from various trades they were forced, not opted, to make.

But there's talent. Mikal Bridges is the favorite for MIP. Cam Johnson is not recognized for how talented and efficient he is. Nic Claxton is a legit DPOY candidate (I have a bet on him).

They will likely move some combination of Spencer Dinwiddie, Dorrian Finney-Smith, and Royce O'Neale by the end of the season. But those trades can make the roster make a little more sense.

This defense will be really good; Claxton, Bridges, new addition Dennis Smith Jr. and DFS are all high-level defenders. If they can figure out a way to scheme an offense built around 3-point efficiency, they'll be a pain every single night.

I don't like their superstar as the engine of a winning team. I don't like their supporting cast. Gordon Hayward is always an injury risk. The young talent is thin, the veteran depth non-existent. But even the most skeptical analysis can't get past the number.

As of now, Miles Bridges is set to rejoin the team. That may change with his off-court legal situation involving incredibly disturbing domestic violence allegations. But for now, no matter how we feel about it, it's an upgrade on the on-court Hornets product.

The vibe otherwise with the Hornets has been good in preseason.

Brandon Miller will be good if unspectacular. There are enough players to get them over. If LaMelo Ball takes a step forward then this team is not a 30-win squad, it's a 40-win squad. I have bet alt overs for Charlotte at 31.5, 34.5, 39.5, and 44.5. The number is just that wrong.

What a weird summer. The Raptors traded a first for Jakob Poeltl last season to try and compete. (They lost in the play-in.) They tried, and failed, to retain Fred VanVleet on a big-money contract. Then they gave Poeltl an extension.

Then they actively floated Pascal Siakam in trade talks and tried to get in on the Damian Lillard trade with OG Anunoby.

Then on media day, Masai Ujiri basically said the team was selfish last season, particularly concerning a potential Siakam extension.

Then, somehow, the preseason vibes were great, and the Raptors went undefeated (a good sign in the last ten years with such teams going 13-7 to the over). New coach Darko Rajakovic has brought the team's spirits, and everyone raves about the change of tone from Nick Nurse.

Now, I don't know what to expect. Based on some promising early-season returns, I bumped them a bit, but this still feels like a roster with an expiration date. I'll stay away.

This is pretty simple. I have them projected over because the number doesn't anticipate them to tank and artificially lower their win total. They would probably be around or over this figure but by the time February rolls around, it will once again be in their best interest to move the other direction.

The offense concerns me most. They have Monte Morris (who will be out early season with a leg injury) and Bojan Bogdanovic. But the young players are all hyper-athletic non-shooters and that will make for clunky lineups.

Number's too low to mess with, but I lean slightly under.

Same deal with the Wizards. Giving Jordan Poole an unrestricted green light is not a pathway to 30 wins. There's some talent on this squad. I'm high on Kyle Kuzma and Cory Kispert. But the roster doesn't have enough punch and should struggle defensively nightly.

They may pivot to draft equity, which puts some value on the under but not enough for me to be compelled to bet it.

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