NBA Betting Odds, Picks and Predictions: Rockets vs. Kings (Sunday, August 9)

Rockets vs. Kings Betting Odds

Odds as of Sunday at 8 a.m. ET and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.

On Sunday, the Rockets look to put the Kings out of the playoff picture entirely while also attempting to lock down a top-four seed in the Western Conference. The Kings have a very outside shot at the playoffs, but at this point they’re just playing spoiler to the Rockets.

Houston Rockets

The Rockets are coming off a strong win against an undermanned Lakers team. Even without Russell Westbrook this Rockets team coasted to a win against the Lebron-less Lakers. Once again the Rockets will be without Westbrook, and Eric Gordon will also miss this game.

The Rockets continue to shoot 3s at a historic pace. Per Cleaning the Glass, the Rockets shot a league high 45.7% of their shots from 3-point range this season. What’s incredible is that they’ve actually increased this percentage in the bubble to 55.9%.

The Rockets are a mathematician’s dream — they take high-value shots and completely disregard the mid-range game as that’s the lowest value in terms of difficulty/reward.

The one thing the Rockets need to do is get back to the rim. In the bubble they are taking shots at the rim, which is a 5% decrease in frequency from the regular season. Getting to the rim more means Westbrook is not taking pull-up shots, the team is drawing fouls and there’s less variance as shots by the rim are higher-percentage looks. Additionally, it’s more difficult for opponents to stay planted around the perimeter on defense.

With Westbrook out, expect Harden’s usage rate to skyrocket again. Per Cleaning the Glass, Harden had a 46.4% usage rate against the Lakers without Westbrook.

Sacramento Kings

The Kings enter this game without Richaun Holmes (hip) and Kent Bazemore is listed as questionable.

The Kings are not a great rebounding team. On the season, they secure only 49.2% of all rebound opportunities per NBA.com. I don’t think this will matter too much against a Rockets team that does not work to rebound the basketball, but this could present a few easy second chance gifts to the Rockets.

The Kings have a high ceiling — they can beat some of the best teams in the league — but they struggle with consistency. Here in the bubble, they have the third-worst Net Rating (-5.8) per NBA.com.

Betting Analysis & Pick

Expect the Rockets to rain 3s against a Kings team that gives up the fourth-most looks from beyond the arc per Cleaning the Glass. When Westbrook does not play, the Rockets shoot 54.4% of their shots from deep.

This presents a massive matchup problem for the Kings. They have 3-point shooters, but their offense is not structured to keep up with the Rockets. They take too many shots from mid-range and do not hit them at a good enough clip to keep this competitive.

I like Rockets -5 and think it has value up to -6.

The Pick: Rockets -5 [Bet now at DraftKings and get a $1,000 sign-up bonus.]