Tuesday NBA Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Nets vs. Bucks Preview (August 4)
David Sherman/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Giannis Antetokounmpo #34 of the Milwaukee Bucks.
- The Bucks are a massive favorite over the short-handed Nets on Tuesday afternoon; they're the biggest favorite of the NBA Bubble by a mile.
- Brooklyn is missing more than a half dozen of its best players, while Milwaukee may not have incentive to push its stars with nothing to play for.
- Get our full preview for Nets vs. Bucks below.
Nets vs. Bucks Odds
|Nets odds||+18.5 [BET NOW]|
|Bucks odds||-18.5 [BET NOW]|
|Moneyline||+1500/-3335 [BET NOW]|
|Time||1:30 p.m. ET|
The Bucks are coming off a loss to the Rockets in an absolute thriller while the Nets will be without their best scoring threats. Is this a trap game for the Bucks? How motivated will they be to risk their stars’ health against a depleted Nets team?
Let’s analyze the matchup.
The Nets announced on Monday that they would be without the following players for their match-up against the Bucks: Jarrett Allen (rest), Joe Harris (back) and Caris LeVert (thigh). That’s in addition to the bevy of their players who are already out for the season. It’s also unclear whether Jamal Crawford will be ready as he ramps up his conditioning. If Crawford sits, this leaves the Nets with only 10 players available.
Per Cleaning the Glass, there have been only 10 such possessions in which all the above players have been off the court. The Nets will likely be led by Tyler Johnson (5.8 points/1.8 rebounds/1.8 assists), Garrett Temple (10.1/3.4/2.5), Chris Chiozza (4.3/1.7/2.5), Rodions Kurucs (4.2/2.6/1.0), Lance Thomas (3/2/1) and Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot (6.8/2.4/0.6). Of those players, only Johnson and Temple have averaged more than 20 minutes per game this season.
Player props are worth consideration for this game. With the Nets, turn to per-36 minute player props. Lines haven’t been posted as of writing, but here are all of the above players’ per-36 minute averages this season for your reference:
- Johnson: 12.2/3.8/3.8
- Temple: 13.0/4.4/3.2
- Chiozza: 12.5/4.8/7.1
- Kurucs: 11.5/7.1/2.6
- Thomas: 7.7/5.1/2.6
- Luwawu-Cabarrot: 14.1/5.0/1.3
Of course, putting up production against second units is not the same as doing it against the starting lineup of the best team in the league. And while it’s hard to know what to expect, our experts will project stats for every player, so be sure to consult the FantasyLabs NBA Props Tool to check for any value on Tuesday.
The Bucks have just removed Eric Bledsoe and Pat Connaughton from the injury report after testing positive for the coronavirus. Wesley Matthews is listed as out with a sore right calf.
At the time of this writing, it’s unclear the squad the Bucks will send out, but they’re a half-game away from securing the top seed in the East. It’s entirely possible they rest Giannis, Brook Lopez and Khris Middleton in this one. The incentive to push for this victory is low.
If the Bucks play all of their starters, I could see them jumping out to a quick start, building a lead, then ultimately resting their players down the stretch.
Betting Analysis & Pick
The market for this game is going to swing depending on the lineup the Bucks decide to start. You should track the status of that here.
The Nets are double-digit underdogs. Over the last three seasons, it’s been profitable to fade big favorites.
The public will likely back the Bucks against an undermanned-Nets squad without a true center. If you’re going to play this game, fade the big favorite without much incentive to press their best players.
If you’re really looking to take a side, back the Nets, though I would not take anything less than double-digits. As for me, I’ll be focused on finding value on props for the players above.