NBA Expert Odds & Betting Picks (Tuesday, March 3): Our Staff’s Favorite Bets for T-Wolves vs. Pelicans, Wizards vs. Kings and More
Will Newton/Getty Images. Pictured: Bradley Beal #3 of the Washington Wizards.
- Betting Tuesday's NBA slate? Or course you are! Our staff sorted through all eight games on the schedule to find betting value.
- Among the games they are betting is an potentially high-scoring game out West between the Washington Wizards and Sacramento Kings.
- See the game analysis for our staff's three favorite bets and their picks below.
There are eight games on Tuesday’s NBA schedule and our experts are betting on these specific matchups:
- 8 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Clippers at Oklahoma City Thunder
- 8 p.m. ET: Minnesota Timberwolves at New Orleans Pelicans
- 10 p.m. ET: Washington Wizards at Sacramento Kings
See the three bets they’re making below.
Tuesday NBA Betting Picks
John Ewing: Clippers at Thunder
- Spread: Clippers -5
- Over/Under: 226
- Time: 8 p.m. ET
The Thunder last played on Friday while the Clippers are on a standard two days’ rest. That extra time off not only gives players time to rest and recover, but creates an edge for gamblers.
Since 2005, NBA teams with four or more days between games have gone 984-971-28 (50%) against the spread (ATS) in the regular season according to Bet Labs. That’s nothing spectacular, but the results improve when we adjust for the time between games for opponents.
In that same span, when the opposing team has two days between games — standard in the NBA — the well-rested squad (four or more days between games) has gone 383-361-9 (52%) ATS.
When is extra rest the most beneficial? Late in the season, of course. The grind of the 82-game schedule begins to weigh on teams as the season progresses. When the calendar flips to January it has been profitable to wager on teams with extra rest.
The edge here is small but extra rest can point bettors in the right direction. Plus, underdogs like the Thunder have been even more profitable winning more than 55% of the time.
The PICK: Thunder +3.5
Brandon Anderson: Timberwolves at Pelicans
- Spread: Pelicans -11.5
- Over/Under: 247
- Time: 8 p.m. ET
The Pelicans and new-look Wolves score a lot of points and play fast, fun, run-and-gun basketball. You already know this, so let’s focus on a whole bunch of numbers today in short order:
- The Wolves’ over is 8-2 during their past 10 games; the Pelicans’ over is 6-4.
- The over is 19-11 on the road, while New Orleans’ over is 16-13-1 at home.
- The Pels’ over is 14-9-1 when they’re favored, the Wolves’ over is 23-15 when they’re dogs.
That’s a whole lot of numbers, and every one of them points toward another over. Ready for another number? It’s 247. That’s tonight’s over/under, and it is absolutely absurdly high. That’s an implied score of New Orleans 129, Minnesota 118. I just can’t get there. There are so many ways this can go under at that meteoric number.
Either team could go cold, honestly, even for a quarter. The Wolves could struggle to score without Towns. The Pelicans could decide to play some defense. Zion Williamson could remember he’s a rookie. These refs (all three at least 58% under on the season) could take over. I just can’t get to 247. Call the fun police. We’re going under.
The PICK: Under 247
Rob Perez: Wizards at Kings
- Spread: Kings -5.5
- Over/Under: 235.5
- Time: 10 p.m. ET
Welcome to The Action Network’s favorite recurring segment: “How is this total not in the 240s?” Today, we welcome to the studio the Washington Wizards and Sacramento Kings! Let’s get the obvious out of the way, if you haven’t watched the Wizards play this season it is truly a treat.
Never will you see a professional basketball team commit to playing pick up more than these guys. They rank fifth in the NBA in points per game and sixth in pace; Washington loves to just go and get their best player Bradley Beal out in transition. They’ll figure out the rest later. We might as well call their secondary break improv.
Oh, and the defense? Dead last in the NBA in points allowed per contest while simultaneously holding the league’s least efficient defense. They somehow check both boxes. A modern day marvel.
I mean I hear you, Wizards, we all hate getting back on defense too. We’d rather just throw our hands up, complain about a no-call, and watch our one teammate hold the hot gates against Xerxes. But we don’t get paid millions of dollars like you.
Long story short: Anytime the Wizards are on the floor, expect the affair to look like an all-star game, and not this year’s Elam Ending one, the one’s where Stephen Curry was bounce-passing alley-oops to Giannis Antetokounmpo as the other team took selfies. As for the Kings, normally you’d expect the same. To their credit, however, they’ve really turned things around here … and fast.
This current 4-1 stretch, has started with their defense — conceding only 103, 94, 112, 101, and 100 points in the five games. For the Kings, let alone 2020 NBA, this is eye-popping. But here’s the thing: speed kills. The rules of the game favor high-powered offenses and the Kings will not have an opponent who is interested in complying with their newfound style of play.
You will see the Kings of old tonight, and I’m not quite sure if that’s a good or bad thing, but it means there are going to be points. And I mean a lot of points.
The PICK: Over 233.5 (total has moved up to 235.5)