NBA Championship Odds: Where All 30 Teams Stand Post All-Star Break

NBA Championship Odds: Where All 30 Teams Stand Post All-Star Break article feature image

Getty Images/Matt Roembke of Action Network. Pictured (L-R): Paul George of the Clippers, Jayson Tatum of the Celtics, Devin Booker of the Suns, Nikola Jokic of the Nuggets.

NBA All-Star Weekend is done and we still have a few more days of a break before we get to actual games. The end of the "first half" of the season gives teams and bettors an opportunity to reset before the final stretch.

Here's a look at where all 30 teams stand after the All-Star break and how sportsbooks are pricing their odds to win the 2023 NBA championship.

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NBA Championship Odds

Odds via FanDuel as of Feb. 20.

TeamOddsImplied Prob.
Trail Blazers+490000.17%
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The Top Contenders

The Celtics have been in pole position nearly all season and they still have a significant edge in terms of their implied probability to win the title.

They still lead the NBA in Net Rating at +6.2 — third in Offensive Rating (116.9) and fourth in Defensive Rating (110.6) — but have just a half game lead on the Milwaukee Bucks in the overall standings. The Bucks and Phoenix Suns have been followed closely behind the Celtics on the oddsboard all season.

The Bucks were starting to get healthy before the break until Giannis Antetokounmpo popped up with a wrist injury that impacted him during All-Star Weekend. The Suns are still awaiting Kevin Durant's on-court debut, but have Devin Booker and Chris Paul back in the lineup after weeks of injury issues.

Teams on the Cusp

The Denver Nuggets lead the Western Conference in wins but they fall just outside of the group of teams with a double-digit percentage chance of winning the title based on their implied probability.

Behind the Nuggets are the Los Angeles Clippers, who, much like the Bucks and Suns, dealt with injuries but seem to have turned a corner entering the break. The Philadelphia 76ers round out this group of teams with a better than 5% implied probability and they sit just three games out of first in the East.

cavaliers vs. 76ers-odds-pick-prediction-preview-nba-february 15-2023
Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Joel Embiid #21 of the Philadelphia 76ers.

Outside Looking In

The Memphis Grizzlies and Dallas Mavericks have the same odds to win the NBA title at the break but their paths have been drastically different to this point.

The Grizzlies started the season hot before hitting a rough patch in mid-January. The Mavericks were trudging through the season before they swung the blockbuster trade for Kyrie Irving that changed their trajectory for the rest of the season.

That trade seems to be the main reason why these two team have the same chance to hoist the Larry O'Brien trophy in the eyes of oddsmakers as the Grizzlies have a 4.5-game lead on their division rivals in the Western Conference standings.

The Golden State Warriors also fall into this group of teams that could be perceived as a threat to the top teams. Stephen Curry's injury and their generally inconsistent level of play have held them back from being seen as true contenders. Still, the Warriors are at .500 with 24 games left in the season and the books at least think they have a small shot to make a run.

Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images. Pictured: Stephen Curry #30 of the Golden State Warriors.

The Cleveland Cavaliers are the last team in this range. They are fourth in the Eastern Conference, have the second-best Net Rating in the NBA (+5.8) and the league's top defense (109.3). They have about a 3% chance to win the title based on implied probability.

The Longshots

Only three other teams have a better than 1% chance of winning the championship based on these odds: Miami Heat, New Orleans Pelicans, L.A. Lakers.

Each team is currently outside of the top-six teams in its conference and each team has key question mark (or two) that would dismiss them from the conversation immediately if things didn't break positively in their favor.

The Pelicans don't know when, or if, Zion Williamson will return to the team after a hamstring injury.  The Heat, who reportedly agreed to a deal with buyout candidate Kevin Love, don't know if their depth is enough to make up for a lack of star power and injuries. The Lakers don't know if Anthony Davis or LeBron James will be at full strength for the remainder of the season.

Keith Birmingham/MediaNews Group/Pasadena Star-News via Getty Images. Pictured (L-R): Anthony Davis and LeBron James of the Los Angeles Lakers.

Just making the playoffs would be an accomplishment any of these three teams at the moment; a championship, as the odds here suggest, is even harder to imagine.

NBA Finals Matchup Odds

Click arrow to expand full NBA finalist odds
Boston Celtics vs Phoenix Suns+650
Boston Celtics vs Denver Nuggets+700
Milwaukee Bucks vs Phoenix Suns+850
Milwaukee Bucks vs Denver Nuggets+1000
Boston Celtics vs Los Angeles Clippers+1100
Milwaukee Bucks vs Los Angeles Clippers+1500
Boston Celtics vs Memphis Grizzlies+1600
Boston Celtics vs Dallas Mavericks+1600
Boston Celtics vs Golden State Warriors+2000
Milwaukee Bucks vs Dallas Mavericks+2100
Milwaukee Bucks vs Memphis Grizzlies+2100
Philadelphia 76ers vs Phoenix Suns+2500
Milwaukee Bucks vs Golden State Warriors+2700
Philadelphia 76ers vs Denver Nuggets+2800
Cleveland Cavaliers vs Phoenix Suns+4100
Philadelphia 76ers vs Los Angeles Clippers+4300
Cleveland Cavaliers vs Denver Nuggets+4500
Philadelphia 76ers vs Dallas Mavericks+5500
Philadelphia 76ers vs Memphis Grizzlies+5500
Cleveland Cavaliers vs Los Angeles Clippers+6500
Boston Celtics vs Los Angeles Lakers+6500
Boston Celtics vs New Orleans Pelicans+6500
Philadelphia 76ers vs Golden State Warriors+7000
Milwaukee Bucks vs New Orleans Pelicans+8500
Milwaukee Bucks vs Los Angeles Lakers+8500
Miami Heat vs Phoenix Suns+9000
Cleveland Cavaliers vs Dallas Mavericks+9500
Cleveland Cavaliers vs Memphis Grizzlies+9500
Miami Heat vs Denver Nuggets+10000
Boston Celtics vs Sacramento Kings+11000
Cleveland Cavaliers vs Golden State Warriors+11000
Miami Heat vs Los Angeles Clippers+15000
Milwaukee Bucks vs Sacramento Kings+15000
Brooklyn Nets vs Phoenix Suns+19000
Miami Heat vs Dallas Mavericks+20000
Miami Heat vs Memphis Grizzlies+20000
Brooklyn Nets vs Denver Nuggets+21000
Philadelphia 76ers vs New Orleans Pelicans+23000
Philadelphia 76ers vs Los Angeles Lakers+23000
Atlanta Hawks vs Phoenix Suns+23000
Miami Heat vs Golden State Warriors+25000
Boston Celtics vs Minnesota Timberwolves+25000
Atlanta Hawks vs Denver Nuggets+25000
Toronto Raptors vs Phoenix Suns+28000

A Celtics vs. Suns NBA Finals matchup has the shortest odds (+650) on the board coming out of the All-Star break. The top four potential NBA Finals matchups feature either the Celtics or Bucks facing the Suns or Nuggets.

The top-two matchups with the Clippers representing the Western Conference are next on the board with Celtics vs. Clippers listed at 11-1 and and 15-1. A Celtics vs. Grizzlies Finals matchup (the only one Ja Morant is worried about) is listed at 16-1.

A rematch of last year's NBA Finals between the Celtics and Warriors is priced at 20-1.

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