What if I told you … the New York Knicks ripped off an all-time red-hot 13-game win streak shredding everyone and everything in their path in perfect team alchemy, only for everything to turn on its head in Game 3 in front of a stunned Madison Square Garden and never win another game that season?
Presenting Spurs in six.
NBA Finals Futures, Series Bets
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 8:30 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Spurs vs. Knicks NBA Finals Future Bet
It’s always darkest just before the dawn, and it can’t get much darker right now for the Spurs. San Antonio led with two minutes left in both home games and could easily be up 2–0 or at least tied 1–1, but instead it must now do something no team in NBA history has done — come back from down 0–2 at home to win the NBA Finals.
So much has gone wrong for the Spurs down the stretch of these games, and Victor Wembanyama has been at the heart of it with a key late turnover and ugly missed shots in both.
But the truth is that San Antonio’s defense has been more than good enough in these games. It’s the offense holding the Spurs back.
The Spurs have held the Knicks to 105 points in both games. New York is under 50% EFG for the series, despite outlier 3-point shooting. Anunoby, Bridges, and Towns are a combined 12-of-24 (50%), while Landry Shamet and Deuce McBride have nine 3s off the bench.
Meanwhile, as reliable as he’s been late, Finals MVP favorite Jalen Brunson is just 15-of-39 on 2s for the series, an ugly 38%, and appears to be wearing down (and was hurt twice in Game 1).
San Antonio is doing its job on defense. It’s holding its own on the glass and winning the free throw game too. The Spurs just need to fix things on the other side of the ball, cut down killer mistakes and hit a few shots.
Fox finally hit a few shots in Game 2 and has an extra day off that ankle injury. Vassell and Johnson got going a bit, and Wembanyama’s offense was improved. Champagnie has gone quiet since the first half of Game 1 and Castle has been downright bad, but the Spurs still have the series X-factor in Dylan Harper.
With both teams struggling to score 50 in a half, Harper’s young legs and ability to attack the basket have the potential to swing the series.
But that feels impossible, doesn’t it?
The Knicks haven’t lost since April and the vibes are absolutely immaculate. Team Friendship is hitting every shot, opponents are missing all theirs, Knicks fans are bing-bonging across all five boroughs, and it feels like New York will never lose again. Meanwhile the Spurs keep choking in the clutch and all the narratives are so easy to latch onto.
The young team just isn’t quite ready. The lights are too bright. The veteran Knicks have something a little extra analysts can’t quite put their finger on but it just keeps working and working. Books and movie scripts are already being written.
But we bet on logic, not vibes.
The truth is that even as poorly as the Spurs offense has been, San Antonio has led late with every chance to win in both games.
Right now, four wins feels impossible because even one win feels like an insurmountable mountain. But San Antonio is still correctly priced near a coin flip tonight, and if the Spurs hit a few more buckets and win even once, everything can change on a dime.
The vibes in New York are incredible right now. It’d be a real shame if there was something — anything really — that could trump those pristine vibes and throw everything off at Madison Square Garden.
As much as the Knicks and their fans believe right now, imagine how quickly things swing if the Spurs grab Game 3? Suddenly New York feels like a must-win spot in Game 4 to stay on the front foot, and the crowd will emanate that nervous energy. Now it’s 2–2 back in front of a rocking Texas crowd, and suddenly it’s San Antonio 3–2 in front of a terrified MSG crowd worried it’s coming to a funeral.
Not every home court is an advantage.
If New York lets this young team back in it — if they let the Spurs believe — the impossible can become possible in a hurry.
The Spurs don’t need to win four in a row yet. Right now, they just need one.
Each time they win, their belief and confidence as a young team will grow, and so will their odds of winning each successive game as bettors remember exactly who the better team has been over the course of 100 NBA games.
A coin flip has a 1-in-16 chance of coming up heads four times in a row, or +1500. That's effectively the odds we're getting on Spurs in six.
You're sure the team with the best player on the court is worse than a coin flip against a star that's worn down, playing hurt, and struggling to make shots? You're positive the surest part of the matchup checking out so far — San Antonio's defense doing its job and giving the Spurs a high floor even when they don't play well — doesn't give them a coin flip chance going forward?
You're certain you won't like the Spurs a little better each game they win and remember that they can? You're 100% sure MSG remains a home court advantage and not a disadvantage if this series tilts the other way and all those vibes start coming into question?
I'm not.
What if I told you the Knicks gave their fans an incredible six-week run they'd remember forever with clutch bucket after clutch bucket, airtight defense, outstanding coaching adjustments, and all around elite team play… only for it to come up just short of the finish line when the better team and better player right the ship just in time and those unbeatable, indefatigable Knicks didn't win another game that season?
Spurs in six.
Pick: Spurs in 6 (+1600, Caesars)
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