The NBA Finals return to New York tonight as the red-hot New York Knicks look to build on their commanding 2-game lead and stretch their postseason winning streak to an incredible 14 games.
New York took the first two games of the series on the Spurs' home floor, leaving a desperate San Antonio squad in a critical position with the Finals shifting to Madison Square Garden for the first time since the late-90s.
Continue below for our NBA Finals Game 3 best bets for Spurs vs. Knicks on Monday, June 8.
NBA Finals Game 3 Best Bets
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Spurs vs. Knicks Player Prop Bet
By Joe Dellera
Karl-Anthony Towns recorded totals of 30 and 34 points & rebounds in the first two games in this series, and I feel pretty good about the way that he’s controlling himself.
The most encouraging factor is his defensive discipline. Despite picking up four and five fouls in those two games, he still managed to avoid fouling out during an poorly officiated Game 2.
In the past, KAT would have committed a silly moving screen or picked up a frustration foul, but he appears to be completely in control right now.
From a rebounding perspective, the opportunities have been there for him. Towns has logged 12 and 13 rebounds on 25 and 18 total chances across the first two games.
His ceiling is huge here for a couple of structural reasons:
- Wembanyama's Fatigue: Wemby is starting to look visibly gassed at the end of games, leaving the interior exposed.
- Perimeter Spacing: The Knicks are actively dropping off Wembanyama when he tries to stretch the floor, inviting him to be a shooter. With nobody left in the paint, Towns is cleanly eating up defensive rebounds.
The largest risk here is the chance of a New York avalanche victory that cuts his minutes short, but at 29.5, the over should still be a good bet.
Pick: Karl-Anthony Towns Over 29.5 Points & Rebounds (-112)
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Spurs vs. Knicks Prop Bet
By Jim Turvey
While Mitchell Robinson’s raw rebounding numbers have looked bizarrely low so far in the Finals, Game 3 presents a nice bounce-back opportunity at a depressed floor price of 5.5 boards.
The biggest factor working in Robinson's favor is his execution at the charity stripe; he made his free throws in Game 2, which heavily minimizes the risk of him being played off the floor via a "Hack-a-Mitch" strategy.
Though Towns has played disciplined basketball, he is always one dicey whistle away from serious foul trouble. If New York runs into an erratic officiating crew at home, Robinson will be an immediate beneficiary of those frontcourt minutes.
He is currently averaging 12 rebound chances per game in this series.
While a large portion of his energy has been spent on the baseline boxing out and physically executing to prevent Wembanyama from tracking down loose balls, Robinson remains one of the best players in the league at converting his opportunities.
With a potential motivational boost from a few notable attendees in the Madison Square Garden crowd, expect Robinson to hunt down misses aggressively in Game 3 tonight.
Pick: Mitchell Robinson Over 5.5 Rebounds (+110)
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Spurs vs. Knicks ATS System Pick
By Bet Labs
Our Bet Labs system titled "Low Radar Home Favorites" aligns nicely with tonight’s NBA Finals matchup.
The Knicks are priced as small -2.5 home favorites at Madison Square Garden in Game 3 tonight.
Falling squarely within the moderate spread parameters of the system, the market is currently pricing this game as a near-equal battle, underestimating the structural advantage of the home court.
The tracking data from the Action Network app mirrors this system's core theory of market hesitation.
The public handle is split down the middle, and actually leans slightly toward the road underdog, with 57% of individual tickets backing the Spurs.
However, the larger, disciplined wagers are quietly fading the public crowd, as 51% of the total money is riding with the Knicks, creating a distinct +8% money-to-bet differential.
This balanced distribution has suppressed line movement, preventing public bias from inflating the spread. As a result, bettors can back a red-hot Knicks team at a discounted number in this spot.
Returning home to a raucous Finals crowd for the first time in 27 years, the Knicks' familiarity, crowd energy, and comfort under pressure offer an edge that doesn't seem to be factored into the price tag for Game 3.
Pick: Knicks -2.5 (-105)
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Spurs vs. Knicks Player Prop Bet
By Joe Dellera
Landry Shamet has left me speechless with his level of play lately.
He is slotting perfectly into New York's preferred sixth-man bench role, logging 33 and 30 heavy minutes over the first two games and cleanly jumping Miles McBride in the baseline rotation.
Shamet is on absolute fire from the perimeter, averaging 11.5 points per game since the midway point of the Knicks' second-round series against the Sixers.
- Game 1 vs. Spurs: 13 Points
- Game 2 vs. Spurs: 13 Points
Just on three-pointers alone, Shamet has knocked down three or more triples in six of his last seven games—meaning he is practically clearing this 8.5 points line strictly from beyond the arc.
What makes this line too low is his willingness to alter his shot profile. He isn't just standing in the corner waiting to spot up; he is driving to the rim and drawing contact.
In Game 2, he launched 12 field goal attempts (seven were threes), and the game prior he took nine shots (six were threes).
The sportsbooks are still pricing this line as if he is splitting backup minutes evenly with McBride, but as the clear engine of the second unit, he should be able to keep printing money against this defense.
Pick: Landry Shamet Over 8.5 Points (-105)
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Spurs vs. Knicks Prop Bet
By Jim Turvey
This is a very straightforward, projection-based cap on a guy who is simply too good to keep off the floor.
Dylan Harper has cleared this line in both games of the Finals so far. He has done a lot of the heavy lifting on hyper-efficient shooting, meaning that even if his scoring efficiency naturally dips as a rookie playing his first true road game in the Garden, the raw floor-time scaling should more than compensate for the variance.
Oddsmakers have aggressively adjusted this line, representing a massive 5-PRA jump from where it opened at 17.5 in Game 1 and 20.5 in Game 2.
The media and fan pressure on the Spurs' coaching staff to expand his role is reaching a boiling point. It would be a tough look for San Antonio to drop into a 3-0 series hole while their best transition threat sits on the bench.
Stephon Castle, Devin Vassell, and Julian Champagnie are all at risk of losing defensive rotation minutes to Harper.
He is already clearing these thresholds in limited floor time, and once Mitch Johnson gives him the starter-level minutes he deserves, 22.5 PRA should be an easy target.
Pick: Dylan Harper Over 22.5 Points, Rebounds & Assists (-115)
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Spurs vs. Knicks Over/Under Pick
By Matt Moore
The total for Game 3 sits at 216.5, and the basketball breakdown supports a lower-scoring environment in this spot.
On the floor, the Spurs' offensive process looks completely broken against New York’s overwhelming physicality and intensity.
San Antonio continues to hurt themselves with their inexperience, repeatedly forcing reckless attacks in transition against good, athletic defenders.
The Knicks have suffocated them in the open court, holding the Spurs to a dreadful 0.84 points per possession in transition compared to their regular-season average of 1.15.
The Spurs simply aren’t generating good shots, and they seem completely shell-shocked by New York's pressure. This is exemplified by the Spurs shooting a miserable 15 percent from 3-point range whenever Josh Hart is on the floor.
The Knicks are hitting them hard every single possession, finding every defensive edge and locking down the point of attack on defense.
When one team is completely beating themselves offensively and the other is dictating the game with intense postseason physicality, it naturally chokes out the game flow.
Pick: Under 216.5 (-110)
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