The NBA Finals resume with Game 4 at Madison Square Garden this Wednesday — and our betting expert Brandon Anderson is targeting a total of four bets in tonight's pivotal matchup between the San Antonio Spurs and New York Knicks.
Continue below for our NBA Finals Game 4 player props, series futures, and first-quarter spread escalator for Wednesday, June 10.
NBA Finals Game 4 Player Props, Series Bets, Spread Escalator
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
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  | 8:30 p.m. | |
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Spurs vs. Knicks Player Props
Dylan Harper continues to be the massive X-factor in this series, and quite frankly, he has been the third-best player on the floor for either side behind only the two star centers.
Harper is getting downhill to the rim, making quick, mature reads, defending at an elite level, and terrorizing the glass.
Right now, Harper is averaging 7.7 rebounds per game for the series on a massive 13 potential rebound chances per game off the bench—both of which rank fourth among all players in the Finals.
He actually led both teams with 19 individual rebound chances in Game 3, and he did that playing reserve minutes!
Harper's sheer physicality is overwhelming the Knicks' secondary units. He should have had a double-double last game, but the NBA stat corrections cruelly stole a contested rebound away and credited it to Wembanyama.
While the oddsmakers finally caught up and adjusted his scoring prop to 13.5—which is fair value—the rebounding market is still lagging behind his actual output.
This line is already juiced to -130 at Hard Rock and sitting at 6.5 at sharp books; it will close higher by tip-off.
Outside of that one week where he was visibly hampered by an injury, Harper has cleared this 5.5 line in eight of his last nine games.
If you want a safer floor play, head over to FanDuel and build a Same Game Parlay of 12+ points and 5+ rebounds at -117.
Factoring out that single injury week, he is averaging 16.6 points and 7.7 boards, hitting this combo baseline in nine straight games.
Pick: Dylan Harper Over 5.5 Rebounds (-130) / 12+ Points & 5+ Rebounds (-117)
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Spurs vs. Knicks First Quarter Spread Escalator
We are watching the same movie script play out at the start of every single game in this series.
The macro-trend is glaring: the Spurs lock in defensively right from the opening tip, execute a beautiful half-court offensive process, and build an early lead.
Then, the second quarter hits, the rotations get sloppy, they fail to solve the Luke Kornet minutes, and the Knicks' small-ball lineups completely blitz them.
Just look at the raw quarterly margins so far in this series. In the first quarter, the Spurs are an incredible +8, +9, and +11. In the second quarter, the Knicks fire right back at +1, +13, and +18.
San Antonio's offensive execution was vastly superior in Game 3, and this opening line simply does not match the reality of how these teams match up early.
Trust the better team when they are freshest and playing to their standard script.
Getting the Spurs 1Q +0.5 (-110) at bet365 is my base play because it means we win the bet even if the first quarter ends in a tie.
But because the market is fundamentally mispricing this opening frame, we aren't just stopping at the standard line—we are running the full alt-line escalator.
I'm putting a fraction of a unit on Spurs 1Q -2.5 (+165), Spurs 1Q -5.5 (+320), and a sprinkle on the Spurs 1Q Winning Margin 11+ (+1000).
The Spurs have cleared or flirted with all three of these variance ceilings throughout this series.
Pick: Spurs First-Quarter Spread Escalator
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Spurs vs. Knicks Points Escalator
OG Anunoby has been the quiet swing player for New York all series long, and I love how aggressive he has been attacking closed-out lanes.
He has developed this beautiful geometric knack for using a physical half-step to shield off Victor Wembanyama at the rim, exploding into a quick jump before the length can recover.
In Game 3, he put on an absolute clinic, going a perfect 6-of-6 on two-point field goals and generating 9 free throw attempts to supplement his usual 2-to-3 made triples per game.
His production has been remarkably steady. If you erase the first two games of his return from the hamstring injury where he was clearly limited, Anunoby has scored over 15.5 points in 12 of his 13 playoff games while averaging 20.8 points per game.
There is some slight juice here at -125 at BetMGM, and if this line creeps up to 16.5 by game time, it drops down to a one-star lean.
You do have to be a little careful because he barely scraped by the hook in half of those wins, finishing with exactly 17 or 18 points.
However, his high floor makes him a much safer target than Mikal Bridges, who tends to vanish entirely if his perimeter shot isn't falling.
Because Anunoby can manufacture points through raw physicality and free throws, his ceiling is highly investable.
Taking him to score 20+ points (+200) at BetMGM is great alt-line value; he has cleared it in six of those 13 healthy playoff games and finished just one basket away in nearly all the others.
If this series goes long and the Knicks come out on top, Anunoby might even be live for a mid-series Finals MVP narrative push.
Pick: OG Anunoby Over 15.5 Points + Escalator
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Spurs vs. Knicks Series Futures
I am doubling down on my pre-Game 3 position where I took the Spurs to win the series in six games. We logged it at +1600 before Monday night, and even though it has shrunk down to +700 at DraftKings, it remains the best value on the board.
Let's look at the simple math equation here. A price of +700 mathematically translates to a 1-in-8 implied probability—the exact same odds as flipping a coin and landing on heads three times in a row.
Are these remaining games consecutive, volatile coin flips? Absolutely not.
The Spurs' tactical process took a massive leap forward in Game 3; they moved Wembanyama closer to the rim, unlocked Stephon Castle, and forced Jalen Brunson into an inefficient, stagnant over-dribbling performance.
New York is surviving entirely on unsustainable outlier jump-shooting.
If the Spurs can take care of business and win Game 4 at home—a matchup where I favor them slightly—then Game 5 back in San Antonio becomes an absolute 70% to 75% smash spot for them to take the series lead.
If they head back to Madison Square Garden up 3-2, they will be facing a completely terrified New York fan base and a tight Knicks roster playing under maximum panic.
I model the true probability of the Spurs to win the series in Game 6 at well over 20% (which should be priced around +400), making the +700 price tag a nice mathematical edge that we can exploit.
Pick: Spurs to Win Series in 6 (+700)
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