NBA Odds, Best Bets Today: Expert Picks for Warriors vs. Lakers Game 3 May 6

NBA Odds, Best Bets Today: Expert Picks for Warriors vs. Lakers Game 3 May 6 article feature image
Credit:

Ezra Shaw/Getty Images. Pictured: Stephen Curry #30 of the Golden State Warriors reacts to a made basket against the Los Angeles Lakers during the NBA Playoffs.

  • Saturday's NBA Playoff slate features an action-packed doubleheader: Knicks vs Heat and Warriors vs Lakers on ABC.
  • Action Network's NBA analysts have four best bets today for both matchups.
  • Read on for their expert picks and predictions below.

Looking for Sunday's NBA best bets? Action Network's staff has four expert picks for Celtics vs. 76ers and Nuggets vs. Suns here.


Welcome to arguably the most loaded sports slate of the year. The first weekend in May has it all: Kentucky Derby, Golf, championship boxing, UFC 288, NHL Playoffs, plus a full slate of baseball.

Oh right, and the NBA Playoffs rolls on with a doubleheader of second round games on National TV. In the early matchup on ABC, we get Knicks vs Heat Game 3 (3:30 p.m. ET on ABC) and in primetime it's Warriors vs. Lakers Game 3 (8:30 p.m. ET on ABC).

Both series are knotted up at one game apiece, which ratchets up the pressure a bit more for those matchups. Our Action Network analysts are targeting four best bets today, including plays on the total in both games and spread pick and same game parlay.

Read on for their in-depth analysis and expert picks for Knicks vs. Heat and Warriors vs. Lakers Saturday.

The ultimate NBA betting cheat code

Best bets for every game

Our NBA model's biggest daily edges

Profitable data-driven system picks

NBA Odds & Best Bets

Click on a best bet to skip ahead
Knicks vs. Heat Total
Knicks vs. Heat Player SGP
Warriors vs. Lakers Total
Warriors vs. Lakers Spread

New York Knicks vs. Miami Heat

Pick
Under 209.5
Book
FanDuel
Tipoff
3:30 p.m. ET
TV
ABC

Chris Baker: I wrote about this matchup in the Game 3 betting guide (you can read that here). Julius Randle’s return to the Knicks provided a massive boost to their offense, but the pace was drastically slower with him back in the lineup.

In Game 1 these teams played at a 95 possession pace, which would still make them the two slowest teams in the NBA if applied to the regular season. But, in Game 2 the pace slowed even further as these teams played at an 88 possession pace. Both teams had transition rates of less than 10%; Heat at 5.7% (1st percentile) and Knicks at 8% (4th percentile).

They were able to clear the total in game two because each team shot extremely well from the field but I would expect the Heat defense to massively improve with Butler’s return. Factor in the potential for negative regression and I like this one to fall under the 209 total. Take the under 209 and play this down to 208.


» Return to the table of contents «


New York Knicks vs. Miami Heat

Pick
Bam Adebayo 15+ PTS + Heat ML Parlay (+114)
Book
FanDuel
Tipoff
3:30 p.m. ET
TV
ABC

Bryan Fonseca: Part of why Bam Adebayo can be frustrating to those who parachute in on the Heat this time of the year is because he might be the most "casuals don't understand what they're watching" player in the NBA — and if you don't believe me, ask Erik Spolestra.

Regardless, even as he has to — again — defend 1 through 5, protect the paint, try to keep Mitchell Robinson and Isaiah Hartenstein off the boards, screen for ball-handlers, screen for shooters, find cutters and create for himself up against the shot clock, then yes, he should find 15 points. He's actually hit 15+ in all but one playoff game so far, and his over/under is a reasonable 17.5, that he may hit.

He's at around 15 field goal attempts per game for the playoffs, and he earned seven free throw attempts last game, most of the playoffs. If he's hitting his middies, this is all day. If he's not, he's getting them up at a high enough clip, so you should be fine — especially if he's mixing in free throws.

I'll take him to get 15 again and tack on the Heat moneyline in what could be a tight victory for the homebound Miami squad, who are expected to have Jimmy Butler going forward.


» Return to the table of contents «


Golden State Warriors vs. Los Angeles Lakers

Pick
Under 228
Book
FanDuel
Tipoff
8:30 p.m. ET
TV
ABC

Matt Moore: I have a few bets on Game 3, which I wrote about extensively in my betting card column. I snuck this bet out with a bizarre garbage time drought late in Game 2, but I'm going to keep playing it.

These two half-court offenses are not good. The Warriors got things going with an explosive Klay Thompson game and the Lakers largely surrendered things. At home, it seems likely the Lakers will look to slow down the Warriors.

Maybe I'm wrong and these two teams are super efficient monsters who haven't looked it all year. But I'll take my chances with one of them coming up short and ugly in a game with much better defensive capability than offensive ceiling.


» Return to the table of contents «


Golden State Warriors vs. Los Angeles Lakers

Pick
Warriors +3
Book
FanDuel
Tipoff
8:30 p.m. ET
TV
ABC

Austin Wang: I covered this matchup in Game 3 betting guide (you can read it here), but with the Lakers only being three-point favorites, I don't think this is a smash spot many make it out to be for the home team. I've seen narratives reference the Lakers being in a bounce-back spot and the Warriors' road woes as reasons to back Los Angeles. Favorites of -4 or less are 100-91-7 ATS (0.85, 52.4%), according to SDQL.

However, my data suggests small favorites don't perform as well in these bounce-back spots. Also, I think the blowout in Game 2 shifted all the momentum and confidence to the Warriors. Sure, Golden State won't shoot the way it did in Game 2, but I think the Warriors can keep it close and cover the three-point spread.

I make this line Lakers -1, so I see slight value on the road underdog.


» Return to the table of contents «


How would you rate this article?

This site contains commercial content. We may be compensated for the links provided on this page. The content on this page is for informational purposes only. Action Network makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of the information given or the outcome of any game or event.

Sportsbook Promos
See All
Legal Online Sports Betting

bet365 Bonus Code TOPACTION Grants Choice Between 2 Offers in 10 States for Any Sport on Tuesday, Including Stanley Cup Final

Daniel Preciado
Jun 18, 2024 UTC