2023 Wells Fargo Championship Round 3 Odds & Picks: Max Homa in Position at Quail Hollow

2023 Wells Fargo Championship Round 3 Odds & Picks: Max Homa in Position at Quail Hollow article feature image

Pictured: Max Homa. (Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images)

The Wells Fargo Championship has always lived up to the hype as Quail Hollow never fails to be a great venue. However, the play is enhanced even more this year with an elite field playing in this elevated tournament. The leaderboard is indicative of that strength as Tyrrell Hatton, Xander Schauffele, Justin Thomas and Sungjae Im find themselves inside the top five heading into the weekend.

Hatton, who is atop the board at 8-under through two rounds, is tied alongside Wyndham Clark and Nate Lashley, the surprise of the week. Those three carry the lead into the third round, but much of the field is still in the hunt as just seven shots separate the top from the players that got through the cut.

In a leaderboard this packed, we will be able to make a case for many players to make a run toward the top with 54 holes left to play. I plan to take some shots down the board before Round 3 and am hopeful we can find the guys in position to make a move Saturday as we typically want the leaders going into the final round at this track.

Let's see who stands out with the best combination of odds and strokes gained metrics as we head into the weekend at the Wells Fargo Championship.

Strokes Gained Explanation

Strokes Gained can give golf bettors, DFS players and fans way more detail on how a golfer has truly played by measuring each shot in relation to the rest of the field.

Using the millions of data points it collects, the TOUR calculates how many shots on average it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation. If a player beats those averages, he’s gaining strokes on the field.

Every situation in golf is different. Strokes Gained measures how players perform relative to the situation.

In this piece, we’ll touch on a variety of Strokes Gained metrics:

  • Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee
  • Strokes Gained: Approach
  • Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green
  • Strokes Gained: Putting
  • Strokes Gained: Ball Striking (which is Off-the-Tee + Approach)
  • Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (which is Ball-Striking + Around-the-Green)

In general, SG: Ball Striking and SG: Tee-to-Green are the most stable long term, while putting is more prone to volatility.

You can often find live-betting advantages by identifying golfers who are hitting the ball well, but are just not getting putts to drop. Likewise, players with high SG: Putting numbers may regress moving forward.

3 Golfers to Buy for Round 3 of the Wells Fargo Championship

I know the odds aren't what they should be here, but we are still getting numbers just short of where Max Homa opened the week and I am willing to bite at +2200. Homa has a tendency to be very volatile and we can typically tell through just a couple of rounds if he has his game. He showed me on Friday that he brought it with him this week as he led the field on approach and gained more than six shots on the field tee-to-green. If the putter had done anything for him in the second round, we would be talking about him at the top of the board. Instead, his more than two lost shots on the greens left him with "just" a 4-under 68. We know Homa knows how to win, especially at this tournament and on this course, so I'll take my chances on this proven winner in good form as he's just one solid Saturday round from being in the Sunday mix.

Speaking of proven winners and players with some good memories at Quail Hollow, K.H. Lee is showing some good form this week. He is certainly ramping up into his event next week at TPC Craig Ranch, but he is a very talented player and a proven winner. It wouldn't be a huge shock to see him win a big event like the Wells Fargo.

Lee knows this course well from his play in the fall at The President's Cup and seems to run hot or cold with his game each week. We haven't seen his best lately as he has just one top-10 finish on the year, but he's in position to contend this week. I am fine with the +4000 odds as he seeks his third career victory, but my favorite play would be for a top-5 finish at +550, which is available at BetRivers.

I may have a Gary Woodland problem, but I will continue to chase the former U.S. Open Champion. He's shown much better form to start this year, but has really lacked in the short game. The good news this week is that he has continued to show the ball striking that has me encouraged we may see him break through again this year and he's also gaining strokes around the green. If he can just find the flatstick, we may have something to sweat going into Sunday. I'll take my chances at +8000 as there are just four shots between him and the lead going into the weekend. It doesn't cost us much to see if he can start rolling in some putts.

Strokes Gained Data for All Players After Round 2

How would you rate this article?

This site contains commercial content. We may be compensated for the links provided on this page. The content on this page is for informational purposes only. Action Network makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of the information given or the outcome of any game or event.