Canelo Alvarez vs John Ryder Odds, Pick & Prediction: The +110 Pick for the -1800 Favorite

Canelo Alvarez vs John Ryder Odds, Pick & Prediction: The +110 Pick for the -1800 Favorite article feature image
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Alfredo Moya/Jam Media/Getty Images. Pictured: Boxers Canelo Alvarez of Mexico and John Ryder of England

  • Undisputed super middleweight champion Canelo Alvarez returns home to Mexico as a massive favorite against John Ryder on Saturday night.
  • The British challenger has proven durable and hard to put away, but Alvarez remains an 18-1 favorite.
  • Below, Bryan Fonseca shares his favorite plus-money play for Alvarez vs. Ryder.

Canelo Alvarez vs. John Ryder Odds

Canelo odds
-1800
Ryder odds
+900
Over/Under
8.5 (-110 / -120)
Venue
Estadio Akron (Zapopan, Jalisco, Mexico)
Time
Approx. 10 p.m. ET
Channel
DAZN pay-per-view
Odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings

We just had a "face of boxing" conversation surrounding Gervonta Davis – but for now, it's still Canelo Alvarez.

On Saturday (7 p.m. ET main card, DAZN pay-per-view), Alvarez returns home to Mexico for his main event.

Alvarez (32-5, 18 KOs) will defend his undisputed super middleweight championship against England's John Ryder (32-5, 18 KOs), the WBO interim champion in the division and, according to BoxRec, third best in the world at 168 pounds.

Alvarez, 32, will be fighting in his 63rd pro bout, and his first in Mexico since Nov. 26, 2011 – a fifth-round TKO stoppage over Kermit Cintron to successfully defend his then WBC super welterweight title. He was 21 and had already been a champion for eight months.

The future first-ballot hall of famer has beaten a who's who, including Gennady Golovkin twice – once extremely debatably – Miguel Cotto, Sergey Kovalev, Danny Jacobs, Austin Trout, Shane Mosley, Amir Khan, Erislandy Lara (don't know about that one either), Liam Smith, Caleb Plant, Billy Joe Saunders and others.

You can feel the INTENSITY between @Canelo and @_John_Ryder_ 😀#CaneloRyder is LIVE on DAZN PPV in the US and Canada and available as part of your regular subscription in selected territories. pic.twitter.com/jO9S0wiYwm

β€” DAZN Boxing (@DAZNBoxing) May 5, 2023

It can't go on forever, can it? The only two losses? Floyd Mayweather and Dmitri Bivol. Mayweather was the pound-f0r-pound best in the world against a 23-year-old Alvarez, and Bivol is the most skilled and probably best light heavyweight in the world today.

Even if you want to add 1-3 more losses, the resume is the resume, and Alvarez has been the biggest name in the sport – and arguably the best boxer south of light heavyweight – since Mayweather officially called it quits several years ago.

This is all about him, sure, but Ryder earned his way here, too.

Canelo vs. Ryder Fight Analysis: Who is John Ryder?

So let's tell you more about Ryder.

He's a 5-foot-9 southpaw with a 72-inch reach, possessing a narrow advantage on both ends over the 5-foot-8, 71-inch-reach-having Alvarez. He has five losses, sure, but they're not indicative of how talented he is as a fighter.

His first loss was an extremely close unanimous decision defeat to the aforementioned Saunders for the British middleweight title 10 years ago. Scorecards read 115-113 (x2) and 115-114 – some would (and have) made a case for Ryder winning, or even a draw. In 2015, he was TKO'd by Nick Blackwell for the same title, then vacated, Ryder's only stoppage defeat.

It was an awful one – Ryder was rocked, sure, but was also ahead on the cards, never dropped, and referee Howard Foster stopped it prematurely, as he did with Carl Froch and Geroge Groves famously before that. He's since lost to Jack Arnfield, Rocky Fielding and Callum Smith by close decisions – Fielding, in particular, is arguably a straight-up robbery.

🀜πŸ’₯ #OnThisDay in 2018…@_John_Ryder_ nailed Jamie Cox early!#CaneloRyder ⏳ pic.twitter.com/FpGWfMFyya

β€” Matchroom Boxing (@MatchroomBoxing) May 5, 2023

But his wins – the most impressive? A narrow split decision win over revered mult-time middleweight champion Danny Jacobs last February. Later in the year, he defeated undefeated Zach Parker as a live underdog via fourth-round stoppage after Parker couldn't continue following a shoulder injury.

Ryder, a two-time interim champion, has the opportunity of a lifetime this weekend at 34 years old, after a 13-year pro career, after getting a doorman's license, after being a nightclub bouncer on weekends, after suffering arguably multiple robberies.

He finally has a proper world title shot – and he's likely going to get his ass beat.

Likely – not definitely.

Alvarez has the power, speed, defense, chin, experience, youth, home-field and most other conceivable advantages over Ryder.

🀯 That head movement 🀯

πŸ—“οΈ #OnThisDay in 2019… @Canelo beat Daniel Jacobs in Vegas!#CaneloRyder πŸ”œ pic.twitter.com/hCZXeS9ySj

β€” Matchroom Boxing (@MatchroomBoxing) May 4, 2023

However, Ryder will have the height and reach, albeit barely, and he's also a southpaw – not like Alvarez hasn't dealt with many, but it's worth mentioning.

Alvarez can't win forever, right? Bivol shocked him last May, but we've since chalked that up to Alvarez biting off more than he could chew by fighting in a weight class above his peak self – similar to Israel Adesanya's loss to Jan BΕ‚achowicz two years ago in the UFC. Alvarez is dead set on the rematch, too, but otherwise, someone may beat him soon.

He'll be 63 fights and 18 years into his career shortly…

Canelo vs. Ryder Predictions

… I just don't expect that someone to beat Alvarez at super middleweight, to be Ryder.

Ryder is tough, has a chin, and was stopped only once, and it was unjust. But Alvarez has KO'd fighters who have never been stopped prior, including Plant, Saunders and Smith.

The pick is in: I think Ryder lasts longer than some may anticipate, so we're going with ol' reliable "Group Round Betting." We'll take Alvarez by KO/TKO between Rounds 7-12, which is +110 at DraftKings and bet365.

Four of Alvarez's last six KO/TKO wins were within this range – Round 8-11, to be exact.

Four sprinkles to consider:

  • Alvarez to win and over 1.5 knockdowns (+125 on DraftKings)
  • Alvarez by KO/TKO between Rounds 5-8 (+155 on FanDuel)
  • Alvarez by KO/TKO between Rounds 9-12 (+230 FanDuel FD)
  • Alvarez on points (+400 on PointsBet) – unlikely, but again, Ryder won't just fold and hasn't been truly stopped. (That isn't to say a referee won't be eager to stop things in Mexico either. This is boxing.)

Enjoy the fights and don't go broke!

The Pick: Alvarez in Rounds 7-12 (+110 at DraftKings)

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