MLB Best Bets Today | Afternoon Picks for Marlins vs Cubs, Twins vs Guardians (May 6)
Pictured: Sonny Gray. (Photo by David Berding/Getty Images)
- There's a full slate of baseball on Saturday, May 6 and our experts have identified a pair of bets bets.
- They're targeting both a moneyline and a total on the Saturday afternoon slate.
- Continue reading for their picks and analysis.
The weekend has arrived and that means there's baseball to bet on all day Saturday. Our experts have looked over the March 6 slate and found a pair of best bets from the early games (best bets from the late slate will be published in an additional story).
Tanner McGrath and William Boor have their eyes set on a moneyline and a total on Saturday, March 6. Continue reading to see their best bets and analysis.
Saturday Afternoon MLB Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click the team logos for one the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
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| Specific bet recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Marlins vs. Cubs
Saturday, May 6 2:20 p.m. ET MLB.TV |
Cubs Moneyline (-170)  |
It's difficult to not be absolutely amazed by what Drew Smyly is doing. He’s done nothing but shove and has posted five straight near-perfect starts, despite facing the Dodgers twice and Padres once.
Smyly has a sub-3.00 ERA, but his expected ERA is even lower, indicating potential positive regression. He doesn’t strike out many batters, but his batted-ball profile is pristine. In fact, his sinker-cutter-curve mix forces the worst contact in the league (literally, his .290 xwOBACON is tops in baseball).
It’s been really great to watch the Cubs break out this season and the Matt Mervis call-up should only make them better.
Matt Mervis' 111.2 mph single is the hardest-hit ball in play in this game, and checks in as the 5th-hardest hit of the season for the Cubs.
— Jordan Bastian (@MLBastian) May 5, 2023
While the Marlins have been smacking around lefties (115 wRC+), I’m a little worried about the state of my beloved Fish. The bullpen has dropped off a cliff over the past two weeks, and the defense grades out very poorly.
The Fish are also starting to feel the pain of the regression train. They’re 10-0 in one-run games and have a .500 record despite boasting a -55 run differential. Miami is due for some extra losses.
I also have no interest in trusting Bryan Hoeing. He dealt against the Cubs last Sunday, but is now facing a dangerous Cubs offense for the second time in five days. And this time, it's on the road, where he has a career 13.50 ERA in 7 1/3 Major League innings.
Hoeing has some nice breaking stuff, but can’t dial in his pitch mix as he throws a lackluster sinker way too much.
The Cubs are about to turn it on while the Fish are due for a rough patch, so I’ll back the Cubbies. Even if the line is pretty juiced, I’m pretty happy trusting the Smyly, Mervis, a top-10 bullpen and a top-10 defense at Wrigley on a Saturday afternoon.
Pick: Cubs Moneyline |
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Twins vs. Guardians
Saturday, May 6 6:10 p.m. ET MLB.TV |
Under 8 (-110)  |
By William Boor
Sonny Gray vs Logan Allen may be the most enticing pitching matchup on the board as the Guardians host the Twins on Saturday. Both Allen and Gray have fared well early this season and although the advanced metrics suggest regression will catch up to both of them at some point, I'm still willing to back the under here — betting that regression doesn't hit for at least one more start.
Gray has yet to give up more than one run in any start this season and has racked up 41 strikeouts over 31 innings. Although his 2.94 xERA isn't nearly as eye-popping as his 0.77 ERA, it's still a very solid mark. Gray ranks in the 79th percentile in K% and in the 85th in Whiff%, both of which help him escape jams and keep runs off the board.
Meanwhile, Allen has made just two starts this season, but both have been promising. The left-hander has yielded just three runs and struck out 16 over 11 innings. A 4.53 xERA compared to a 2.46 ERA is a bit concerning, but Allen ranks in the 95th percentile in K%. The 24-year-old has quality stuff and if he's able to pile up the strikeouts — he had eight in each of his first two starts — he should be able to keep runs off the board for five or so innings.
Once the starters exit, they'll hand the game over to a pair of solid bullpens. Neither 'pen has been particularly dominant this season, but they haven't been bad either. The Guardians rank eighth in MLB with a 3.35 ERA, while the Twins are 13th with a 3.73 ERA.
We also have a few offensive trends working in our favor as Cleveland's offense performs worse at home than on the road and the Twins hit better at home than on the road. The Guardians average just under three runs per game at home, while the Twins score roughly 4 1/2 runs per game on the road.
Take the under in a quality starting pitching matchup, though I wouldn't play this at anything lower than eight.
Pick: Under 8 |
What is QuickSlip?
QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.
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