NBA Betting Odds & Expert Picks: Saturday’s Best Bets
Mark Blinch/Getty Images. Pictured: Joel Embiid #21 of the Philadelphia 76ers.
- There are a number of intriguing matchups on the slate today and our experts are all over it.
- They've identified four angles for Saturday's best bets.
- Continue reading for the picks and analysis.
Saturday NBA slate is sneaky good with a number of interesting matchups across the slate. The games tip off fairly early with the first matchup beginning at 4 p.m. ET.
Our betting experts are targeting three games on today's eight-game slate and have four picks and predictions in those matchups. Check out their best bets for Saturday's slate below.
NBA Odds & Picks
Brooklyn Nets vs. Los Angeles Clippers
Chris Baker: The Clippers have been in Los Angeles for eight days while the Nets have flown five times in the past eight days.
Not exactly an easy travel schedule, but they have had an easy schedule of opponents as three of their last four games have been against bottom-12 Adjusted Net Rating teams per Dunks And Threes. The Nets have been able to capitalize on this winning three of their last four, including a blowout win over their rival New York Knicks most recently.
The Clippers have struggled so far this season, but I think some of their issues can be chalked up to 3-point inefficiency and I expect that to regress. After ranking second in the NBA last season (38%), the Clippers are making just 33.9% of their 3s, which ranks 24th.
This team has plenty of capable shooters on their roster and I expect them to generate some clean looks against this Brooklyn team that is allowing the sixth-highest 3-point attempt rate in the NBA. The second major reason I like the Clippers here is the multitude of switchable wings they have.
The two major keys when playing this Brooklyn team is limiting Kevin Durant and running shooters off the 3-point line. The Clippers absolutely have the ability to switch 1-4 and 1-5 at times when Zubac is off the court.
That should benefit them in this one in their efforts to limit Joe Harris and Seth Curry from behind the arc, and it should help them prevent Durant getting clean looks. I’ll bet the Clippers, who haven’t had to fly all over the country over the past week, to cover the short number at home on Saturday afternoon.
Utah Jazz vs. Washington Wizards
Austin Wang: The Jazz appeared to be headed towards a full rebuild after trading away core players Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert in the offseason.
Instead, this band of savvy, blue-collar veterans has excelled as a cohesive unit and have gotten off to an amazing 10-3 start. They have six players averaging double-digit scoring and Lauri Markkanen is making a case for his first All-Star campaign.
The Jazz are off two days of rest and had a light week. The Wizards only had one day of rest and had an upset win against the Mavericks on Thursday with a thin rotation since Kristaps Porzingis and Bradley Beal were out. I anticipate a potential let-down spot for the Wizards, who will still be without Beal.
Home underdogs off an upset win as an home underdog with less rest than their opponent have gone 17-36 ATS (32.1%) since the 2013-2014 season, per the SDQL at Killer Sports.
The Jazz are 10-3 ATS in the first half. They lead the league in first half Net Rating (+12.8), per NBA Advanced Stats. On the other hand, the Wizards are 27th in the league in first half Net Rating (-5.8) and are 5-6-1 ATS in the first Half. Play the Jazz here at -1.5 in the first half (up to -3).
Atlanta Hawks vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Munaf Manji: The Hawks will play the 76ers in as many nights. I am focusing on the Hawks center, Clint Capela in this matchup, who should see significant minutes tonight against the Sixers to defend Joel Embiid.
The Hawks are bit thin in the front court tonight as Onyeka Okongwu is out tonight for personal reasons. Capela should have another big night on the boards tonight after grabbing 20 rebounds in their Thursday matchup.
The Sixers are allowing 15.3 rebounds per game to the center position. Outside of Embiid, the Sixers are thin upfront as well. Furthermore, over the last four career matchups versus the Sixers, Capela is averaging 14.5 rebounds per game and has gone over this projection in three out of the four games.
Atlanta Hawks vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Matt Moore: Ken Barkley of the radio show "You Better You Bet" calls games like these Duplex Spots where you play the team twice in a week. The first was in Atlanta, this one in Philly. No back-to-back, so less of a concern Embiid will skip, but you should always, always wait to make sure Embiid is playing before betting Philly games.
No Onyeka Okonwgu for the Hawks which hurts their second unit. That matters with how the Sixers stagger Embiid at the start of the second and fourth vs. bench units.
I bet the Hawks in the first game because with homecourt I made it Hawks -3. Current season numbers still lean Hawks here, but I'm betting the spot instead. No Okongwu in the duplex after winning the first one at home, this one on the road.
Since 2018 when these games started to increase in frequency, teams who lost the first game on the road and are favored at home are 17-7 straight up, 70%. The implied odds for this game using our Action Network calculator are 58.5%.
So why not the number at lower juice? Because I think the Hawks match up well with the Sixers. It's why they beat them in the playoffs two years ago.
But I do think the Sixers get the win here, with the Okongwu absence more significant than the market is accounting for. (Granted, Okongwu was a -17 in Thursday's game so maybe not.)
I think it's fine to lay the extra 30 cents here and just take the Sixers on the ML to beat a team they just saw and are familiar with at home, with no back to back, when this is the third in four nights for the Hawks.