Pistons vs. Hawks Odds & Picks: This Atlanta Trend Puts Value on the Total
Jim McIsaac/Getty Images. Pictured: Trae Young.
- The Hawks welcome the Pistons to Atlanta on Wednesday night in the midst of a difficult stretch.
- Atlanta has lost six of its last eight games, and its offense is not clicking, starting with Trae Young.
- Matt Trebby breaks down where there is betting value on this Eastern Conference matchup.
Pistons vs. Hawks Odds
|Pistons Odds||+6.5 [BET NOW]|
|Hawks Odds||-6.5 [BET NOW]|
|Moneyline||+220 / -278 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||221.5 [BET NOW]|
|Time||7:30 p.m. ET|
|TV||NBA League Pass|
The Detroit Pistons are one of the worst teams in the NBA. They might finally get that top draft pick that has eluded them because of it. A matchup with the Atlanta Hawks could bring Detroit one step closer to that destiny.
The Hawks, meanwhile, spent big in the offseason to build around Trae Young, and their new additions have not translated to the offensive success they desired.
Let’s see how that translates to betting value:
After an interesting offseason full of spending, the Pistons are no better than they’ve been in recent years.
Detroit enters this game 3-10 while ranking 20th in Offensive Rating and 24th in Defensive Rating. The Pistons rank 23rd in Pace, as well. It’s fair to say that anyone who isn’t a Pistons fan and turns their game on League Pass either is a fan of the other team or is betting against them.
One offseason addition that is working out is Jerami Grant, who is averaging 24.9 points on 46.7% shooting. While he’s playing well, a team led by Grant on offense is unlikely to be a factor in a playoff race. Detroit’s next leading scorers are Derrick Rose and Blake Griffin, both of whom are well past their primes primarily due to injuries.
Detroit is trying to make up for the lack of star power and offensive ability by shooting the sixth-most 3-pointers per game (38.5) entering play on Tuesday night. Unfortunately, it’s not working. The Pistons rank 21st at 34.5% from beyond the arc.
A positive for Detroit is that it could finally be bad enough to get a top draft pick. The No. 7 pick in the 2020 draft was the Pistons’ highest selection spot since taking Greg Monroe at that number back in 2010. Otherwise, they’ve been forced to pick from the best of the rest after the best prospects are already off the board.
The Pistons’ .231 win percentage is the worst in the NBA, and they are one of just three teams without more than three wins.
To its credit, Detroit is 7-5-1 against the spread this season, which is ninth-best in the NBA.
After a very busy offseason, it was assumed that the Hawks would put up plenty of points while struggling on the defensive end.
Naturally, it’s been the exact opposite so far.
Atlanta ranks 15th in Offensive Rating entering Tuesday night, according to NBA Advanced Stats, and is eighth in Defensive Rating. While they are 6-7, the Hawks are 10th in Net Rating, tied with the Boston Celtics at 1.7.
The biggest key for the Hawks to take a step forward offensively is Trae Young. (I know. I’m really going out on a limb there.)
In his third season, Young is currently shooting the lowest field goal (38.6) and 3-point (27.4) percentages of his career. Those numbers are huge drop-offs from last season, when Young shot 43.7% from the field and 36.1% from beyond the arc.
Oddly enough, the help that the Hawks added does have Young with the first positive +/- of his career at 4.4, thus far.
Atlanta is much better defensively this season, and a lot of that can be credited to strong play from forward John Collins (102.5 Defensive Rating) and center Clint Capela (102.9). Capela is known for his presence in the paint and has been as advertised this season, leading Atlanta in Rebounding Percentage while averaging 13.1 points and 13.1 rebounds.
After covering four of its first five games of the season, Atlanta has done so just twice in its last eight. Among the teams they haven’t covered against in that stretch: the Cavaliers, Knicks and Hornets. Not exactly the cream of the crop.
Detroit is so bad, though, so we’re going to avoid that trend and focus on the total.
Eleven of the Hawks’ first 13 games of the season have gone to the under, including each of their last nine. Atlanta is the better team in this matchup and playing at home, so we’ll back its trend.
Pick: Under 221.5 points