Jazz vs. Warriors NBA Betting Odds & Pick: Back Golden State to Win Outright (May 10)

Jazz vs. Warriors Odds

It's funny how time flies when you're having fun.  After almost six months of exciting basketball, we've reached the last week of the NBA regular season, and tonight's matchup features two teams gearing up for a playoff run.

The Utah Jazz hold the NBA's best record at 50-18 and have a 1.5-game lead for the No.1 seed in the Western Conference. Despite the absence of  their two All-Star point guards in Donovan Mitchell and Mike Conley, they've won five-straight games, and they hope to continue building momentum against the always red-hot Stephen Curry and the Golden State Warriors.

This isn't the Warriors team we saw from 2015 though 2019 that was "light years" ahead of the rest of the league winning three championships in five years. This year the Warriors are fighting for their playoff lives, as they're 35-33, a half game above the Memphis Grizzlies for the eighth seed in the Western Conference.

With the Blazers in the seventh seed in the Western Conference and holding the tie breaker, the Warriors are likely to find themselves in the play-in tournament. Nevertheless, they still need to keep winning to give themselves a better position in the play-in tournament. The desperation for this Warriors team is priced into the line, as oddsmakers have installed the Jazz as 2.5-point favorites over the Warriors.

Let's analyze both sides and see if we can find an edge in this Western Conference showdown!

Utah Jazz

The Utah Jazz continue to win despite the absence of Donovan Mitchell and Mike Conley. Mitchell has missed 12-straight games with an ankle injury while Conley has missed seven straight games with a hamstring injury. With this team having the best record in the league and not chasing any playoff seeding, it makes sense to prioritize rest and not rush either back at this time.

Still, they're still 8-4  during this stretch as they are second in Net Rating, eighth in Offensive Rating (116.1) and third in Defensive Rating (107.4). Although there has been a drop in their Offensive Rating with the absence of Mitchell and Conley, the cupboard is far from bare on this team that's making 17 threes per game this season.

Bojan Bogdanović has played a big role in why this team hasn't slipped too much, as he's been on a tear, averaging 28.1 points on 57.6% shooting during the last seven games. In Friday Night's 127-120 win against the Jazz, Bogdanović scored a career-high 48 points on 16-of-23 (69.6%) shooting.

Overall, the starting lineup without Mitchell and Conley has played exceptionally well. With Bogdanović-Gobert-Ingles-O'Neale-Niang on the court. the Jazz are outscoring teams by a whopping 39.6 points per 100 possessions with an Offensive Rating of 137.2 and a Defensive Rating of 97.5. With the odds-on favorite for Sixth Man of the Year in Jordan Clarkson increasing his usage, this team doesn't lack for offense.

In this matchup against the Warriors, I'm expecting them to find success in doing what they've always done this year: launching threes at the highest rate among NBA teams (45.5%), while making them at the third-highest rate (39.7%). The Warriors are a solid defense and rank above average in opponent field goal percentage in every area of the floor except three-point percentage.

I would be remiss if I went any further without talking about defense, as the Jazz are first in Defensive Rating (107.5) in their non garbage time minutes. With this year's likely Defensive Player of the Year, Rudy Gobert, anchoring this defense, you're not going to score very efficiently at the rim.

The Jazz are sixth in opponent field goal percentage (62.3%) at the rim with Gobert leading the league in Defended Field Goals Percentage (42.3%).   If there's any weakness to Gobert and this Jazz defense, it's them playing drop coverage against the greatest shooter in the history of basketball.

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Golden State Warriors

Steph Curry continues to prove everyone wrong who questioned his stature based on his teammates during the "Strength In Numbers" era. Curry cooked the Oklahoma City Thunder for 49 points while shooting a 11-of-21 (52.4%) from behind the arc on Saturday.

There seems to be very few teams who can stop the onslaught of shooting from the greatest shooter of all time, as Curry leads the league in scoring at 31.9 points per game despite the lack of spacing on this team. He's always been the perimeter version of Shaquille O'Neal, in that his mere presence has such a huge gravitational pull to create open shots for teammates.

There are very few Offensive Players in the history of the league so impactful in that regard, and it's not a surprise that the Warriors are scoring 114.7 points per 100 possessions with him on the floor vs. 104.1 with him off the floor (+10.6).

With Gobert playing drop coverage and often finding himself in PNRs against the Warriors, the Jazz are an ideal matchup for Curry who's attempted 12.6 three pointers per game and making them at a whopping 42.9%.

Curry has had his way with Gobert in space for years now, and it doesn't matter who his teammates are. If Curry catches Gobert guarding him on a switch, he's food, and if Gobert drops, he'll just shoot a wide open three pointer.

This is just a tough matchup for the Jazz and without Mike Conley and Donovan Mitchell to defend Curry, so I'm expecting a huge night. The last time these two teams played, Curry scored 32 points on 10-of-20 (50%) shooting, leading the Warriors to a 131-119 victory at home.

In that game the Warriors put up a 128.8 Offensive Rating, and it wouldn't be a surprise to see a repeat of that here, but of of course that depends on whether his supporting cast can hit their shots.

Andrew Wiggins is the Warriors' second-leading scorer at 18.3 points per game on 47.3% shooting and 38% from behind the arc. There isn't much help offensively on this team which makes Curry's season even more impressive. Despite his stellar play the Warriors are just 23rd in Offensive Rating (110.4) in their non garbage time minutes.

Defensively, Draymond Green continues to anchor this defense as he did for the "Strength In Numbers" Warriors. The Warriors are fifth in Defensive Rating, holding opposing teams to just 110.3 points per 100 possessions in their non garbage time minutes.

The biggest weakness for the Warriors is their ability to rebound as they're 28th in Rebounding Percentage (47.8%). What does it mean if you have a top-five defense if you can't end possessions by grabbing the rebound? The Warriors are 27th in opponent second-chance points at 14.3 per game. Although the Jazz are 21st in second-chance points (12.6 ppg), they had 14 offensive rebounds in their first matchup and 18 offensive rebounds in their second, so this is a major concern for the Warriors.

Jazz-Warriors Pick

After back-to-back games against the Oklahoma City Thunder, New Orleans Pelicans and a game against the Houston Rockets, this is a step up in class for the Warriors, even without Donovan Mitchell and Mike Conley.

The Jazz are in a rough scheduling spot, playing their third game in four nights against a Warriors team which is playing their remaining games at home. I don't like to handicap motivation, but I think it applies here as the Warriors are both the healthier team and hungrier team.

Although the Warriors are missing Kelly Oubre, he certainly doesn't make the same impact as Mitchell and Conley who won't be there to score or defend Steph Curry.

The Jazz will particularly miss Conley for this matchup, as they are allowing 103.4 points per 100 possessions with him on the floor vs. 112.5 with him off the floor (-9.1). When you're playing the Rockets, Nuggets, Spurs and a tanking Raptors team without a dynamic point guard like Curry, you can get away with it. I'm not seeing how they don't miss him here.

The Warriors have already beaten a full-strength version of this team at home, and I expect them to do it again as Curry continues to exploit Gobert and Utah's drop coverage. I'll take the Warriors to win this game outright.

Pick: Golden State Warriors ML +120