The NBA regular season is back in action with an excellent 9-game slate this Wednesday, and I've locked in a total of three picks spanning two of tonight's contests — including bets for Hawks vs. Magic and Pacers vs. Bulls.
Let's get to my NBA predictions, picks and expert bets for Wednesday, April 1.
NBA Picks, Predictions for Wednesday, April 1
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Hawks vs. Magic Spread Prediction
Hawks -4
Two teams in the thick of the battle to avoid the Eastern Conference Play-In Tournament square off tonight, as the Magic try to dig their way out of the deep hole they’ve dug for themselves, and the Hawks try to continue this magical late-season run they are on.
I whiffed on the Magic yesterday, so be advised. I said it was a game where Orlando might turn the corner, and sure enough, they did. However, I am once again fading the Magic.
Some trends, good and bad:
- Orlando has been good on back-to-backs this season at 8-4 ATS, while the Hawks are 7-6 ATS against teams on back-to-backs.
- The Hawks are also 7-6 ATS as road favorites; the Magic are 5-3 as home underdogs.
- The Magic are 10-5 under Jamahl Mosley as home 'dogs on a back-to-back — although, they are only 3-2 this season.
- Teams are 29-44-1 ATS after playing Phoenix (Orlando).
- Orlando is a disastrous 15-24 ATS after a win this season.
- Home 'dogs that are down 3-0 in the season series to a division opponent are 128-152-6 (46%) ATS since 2003.
If the full season numbers suggested the Magic were the better team and just having a bad stretch, while the Hawks were playing their best basketball, then maybe I’d be able to get on board with the Magic.
However, that is not the case.
While it’s true that the Hawks have absolutely taken off since the All-Star Break (and weren’t good prior to it), they weren’t that far off from Orlando. Now, the Hawks have molded themselves into a serious team, while the Magic have continued to languish and are playing pretty awful (yesterday's win aside).
This has the makings of a fairly ugly contest with many missed jumpers. The Magic prevent threes at a high rate, but Atlanta generates them at a high rate like Phoenix (I was banking on the Suns winning the math game yesterday, and they went 14-of-46 from 3-point range. That’s just how it goes sometimes).
The Magic struggle to defend the rim, but the Hawks aren’t good scoring there — and their new identity is five-out with Onyeka Okongwu.
Orlando will focus on the spot-up attempts of Atlanta, which is the majority of their offense, but Orlando is also a little weaker against on-ball actions. Don’t be surprised if Dyson Daniels has a strong game, as he’s played much better since the All-Star Break.
Offensively, this is going to be a lot of transition from both teams, with both squads ranked top-10 in points per game in transition. Orlando is bottom-10 in transition defense, while the Hawks are 13th.
Orlando will get to the line vs. the Hawks, but it’s hard to sustain your offense on that.
I’ll trust Atlanta to sweep the season series and move closer to punching its playoff ticket. I’m just not ready to believe the Magic have turned a corner yet.
Total (No Bet)
No play on the total here. I project this line right around the number, and both teams will try and play fast to counter the other team’s halfcourt defense and get away from their liabilities in halfcourt offense.
It’s two relatively inefficient teams. The Hawks have shot great lately, but Orlando’s good at defending those shots.
I can’t find any reason to bet the total in this spot.
Pick: Hawks -4 (-110)
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Pacers vs. Bulls Spread & Total Picks
Pacers First Half Spread +2.5
Two tanking teams with no incentive to win! This is the NBA in March, and it’s fantastic!
Pascal Siakam is going to play tonight, because he’s a total pro despite there being no reason for it.
Ivica Zubac, Aaron Nesmith, Andrew Nembhard, and of course Tyrese Haliburton are out along with TJ McConnell and Johnny Furphy. The Bulls are without Jalen Smith and Anfernee Simons.
Chicago is 9-13 ATS this season without Stix (Jalen Smith), by the way (he’s one of my favorite players).
I make this spread almost right on the number at Bulls -5 with the injuries.
The Bulls are tanking, but not tanking like the Pacers right now. The Pacers have to avoid the 5-9 range in the draft so the Clippers don’t get their pick. Sacramento is two games up in the win column on the Pacers, and if they move to 4th, their odds of keeping the pick go from 52% (favored) to 48% (less likely than not). So, they are incentivized.
The Bulls, meanwhile, are four games back of Memphis, though they do need to lose to keep Milwaukee at bay. The Bucks passing Chicago would drop the Bulls’ top-4 odds by 6.4 percentage points.
It is very messed up that I have to include this stuff in the handicap, but here we are.
Chicago has more offense on the floor than the Pacers, and the Bulls' defense is a little frisky, too. Yet, Chicago has consistently found ways to lose to these teams:
- The Bulls are 4-10 SU and 3-11 ATS against teams with less than a 30% winning percentage at the time of the matchup. Chicago just lost to the Kings by 16.
That’s wild.
The Pacers have more incentive to tank, but they are in a better spot to allow a win — meanwhile, the Bulls will have their own pick no matter what, but probably need this loss more.
I think it’s normally fine to bet on and against tanking teams late in the season because normal rules about competition and professionalism usually win out. I can’t say that this year. You can be in a good spot and then have it yanked in the 4th.
But there is an angle!
Against teams that have a winning percentage below a 40%, the Pacers are a respectable 8-9 ATS and 9-8 SU. Meanwhile, in those games against the very worst, the sub-30% teams? Chicago is, get this, 2-12 SU and ATS in the first half. Good God…
Let’s take the Pacers to cover the first half spread and hope for a competitive half of basketball before the hijinx begin, so we can get out with our money safe from the nonsense.
Over 246.5
I do love the Over here, though.
I project this total at 248, and the Over is 19-15 when the Pacers are road 'dogs this season — and 7-4 when the opponent is below .500.
The Over is also 9-5 when the Bulls face a team with a winning percentage below 30%. Chicago can’t guard anyway, and the Pacers’ system still lends itself toward good shots and makes.
The Bulls rank second in pace; the Pacers are still top-10. A fast paced fun game between two teams trying to lose. What could be better?
Picks: Pacers 1H +2.5 (-115), Over 246.5 (-115)
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