The NBA regular season is back in action with an excellent 7-game slate this Tuesday, and I've locked in a total of four picks spanning two of tonight's contests — including bets for Suns vs. Magic and Cavaliers vs. Lakers.
Let's get to my NBA predictions, picks and expert bets for Tuesday, March 31.
NBA Picks, Predictions for Tuesday, March 31
  |   |
Suns vs. Magic Spread & Total Picks
Suns Moneyline
The Suns are on a back-to-back road set having beaten Memphis on Monday night. The line with Orlando favored is clearly suggesting some form of rest for Phoenix. You should wait until the injury report pops up at 1 p.m. ET.
The Suns are 6-8 SU and ATS on the second night of a back-to-back this season, and they are 2-4 SU but 3-3 ATS in that spot on the road.
Devin Booker, notably, has played in 11 of the 14 back-to-backs, and given how much time he’s missed, it basically suggests he’s not expected to miss time.
The market line for this game with no rest adjustment and an average 2.5 points for homecourt is Magic -0.3, so you would think that a 2.5-point adjustment for the back-to-back is adequate. That’s around where most models put the impact of a back-to-back.
However, I disagree with the market line. I think the Suns should be substantial favorites here, by more than five points at least.
Orlando is 22-14 at home this season, but just 16-20 ATS and 11-17 as a home favorite. The Magic are 3-4 ATS as favorites vs. West teams, with most of those games coming against lottery squads.
Orlando is 20-26 ATS this season without Franz Wagner. The Suns are 15-10 ATS and have covered in four straight games without Dillon Brooks.
I basically have the Suns power rated as an average team; -0.4 points below average. I have Orlando rated significantly worse at -3.8 without Wagner and Anthony Black.
Then, given how bad Orlando has been at home ATS, I wind up with a rating far away from this number.
Maybe this is the game where Orlando turns it around. If I had the Magic projected as a favorite here, it would a good buy-low spot — but I think Orlando is fundamentally broken, and that’s a team I want to continue to fade.
Basketball-wise, there’s not much you can find where the Magic have an edge. They have more perimeter creators, but not as efficient ones. Orlando is 27th in eFG%, the Suns are 18th. That, alone, is a huge edge.
The Magic’s defense, after being so good for so many seasons, has been mediocre this season, and the absence of that identity has really hurt them.
The Suns, meanwhile, know what their identity is: swarming defense that causes turnovers and gets out in transition.
This is also a big math-game problem environment for the Magic.
Phoenix creates a lot of threes and makes a top-10 rate of them, while the Magic take almost none and make very few.
Orlando is excellent at preventing threes, but this is still a big edge for Phoenix. I’ll take the Suns to win outright.
Over 224.5
The Suns are ranked 23rd in opponent free throw rate, while the Magic draw the second-most free throws with their physical style offensively.
Phoenix will put the Magic at the line, which will create dead-time points and boost the total .
I project this line at 228, slightly Over the total. The Over is 12-10 when the Suns are road underdogs.
Given that I’m expecting a big three-point performance by the Suns and high free throw volume for the Magic, this has to be an Over spot.
Picks: Suns Moneyline (+115), Over 224.5 (-110)
| |
Cavaliers vs. Lakers Spread & Total Predictions
Lakers -1.5
The Lakers have beaten six of the last seven teams they've faced over .600, after months of struggling against good teams. They just lost to the Pistons on the road (without Cade Cunningham) to break their winning streak, but Detroit remains very tough and this one is at home.
Both teams are on a back-to-back, so there’s no way to know what the injury report will be, but Luka Doncic sat out the first leg, which presumes he’ll play in this one. LeBron James played in the Monday night game, so I’d expect him to sit. Meanwhile, the Cavaliers played everyone vs. the Jazz.
It’s important to note this is not a nationally televised game, so they don’t face the risk of a fine for sitting the star players here. The Cavs are free to go ahead and punt this game, but most players want the chance to play at Crypto.com Arena against the King.
The market power rating line on this game based on Inpredictable.com ratings makes this just Lakers -0.5 — and on full-season numbers, I make this Lakers +1.5.
But I think we have to index on just how good the Lakers have been over the past month, and understand the need to ride the hot hand. When you get to March, some teams just go on these runs, and the Lakers are on one right now.
The Cavaliers having Jarrett Allen back matters a lot. Allen sat vs. the Jazz yesterday, which suggests he’ll play here. The Cavs are 7-17 ATS without Allen active.
However, I can’t get past the matchup problems. The Cavaliers don’t have a good defender for Doncic, not that one truly exists. Jaylen Tyson is likely too small. Meanwhile, they will likely wind up with James Harden guarding either Austin Reaves or Marcus Smart, which will free up those players for spot-up chances.
Deandre Ayton and Jaxson Hayes are a good combo to throw against Evan Mobley and Allen defensively — and the Lakers are getting good minutes from their bench.
Reaves and the Lakers' bench unit should be able to go blow-for-blow with Harden in Cleveland's staggered lineups. Ultimately, I’m not heavy on the spread, but I do think the side has to be the Lakers-or-nothing given how well they have played recently.
Under 237.5
The Lakers’ defense has stepped up recently. The Under is 9-6 in March and 12-8 since All-Star Break in Lakers' games.
The Cavaliers' offense doesn’t have as much pop — and when the Cavs are road 'dogs, the Under is 6-4.
JJ Redick has consistently shown an ability to craft defensive solutions to slow down elite offenses. With a playoff spot on the line, I’m expecting a scheme featuring zone to clog up the dribble drive chances for Harden and Mitchell and force stilted shooting from the Cavaliers.
I like the Under better than the side in this spot.
Picks: Lakers -1.5 (-110), Under 237.5 (-110)
| |
