The NBA regular season is back in action with an excellent 5-game slate this Monday, and I've locked in a total of five picks spanning three of tonight's contests — including bets for Knicks vs. Hawks, Spurs vs. 76ers and more.
Let's get to my NBA predictions, picks and expert bets for Monday, April 6.
NBA Picks, Predictions for Monday, April 6
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Knicks vs. Hawks Spread & Total Picks
Hawks -1.5
The Hawks have been the second-best team in basketball since March 1 and continue to roll on. Unbelievably, they’ve played so well for so long that I have them power-rated above New York.
I don’t think the Hawks are actually better than New York, but they are playing better right now. I make the spread for this game Hawks -4.5.
The Knicks have been bad on the road this season; 15-26 ATS and only 22-19 SU. Atlanta is 41-28 ATS without Trae Young at home this season and have covered in 17 of their last 22 games at home.
From a basketball standpoint, the Knicks’ rely on their pick-and-roll attack and offensive rebounding.
The Hawks struggle with pick-and-roll, so Jalen Brunson should have a monster game — but Atlanta is great at closeouts at range.
Surprisingly, despite playing small-ball, the Hawks are great on the offensive glass.
New York is mostly comfortable in the 3-seed, and might even prefer the 4-seed to stay out of Boston’s bracket.
The Knicks' motivation level is much lower than the Hawks, who both need to stay ahead of slipping to sixth place or play-in — and can still catch the Cavaliers for homecourt in the first round.
Under 229.5 (Lean)
I lean toward the under in this game as well, with the Hawks ability to slow down the Knicks’ offense via their perimeter defenders and the Knicks’ size clogging up things for Jalen Johnson.
Picks: Hawks -1.5, Under 229.5 (Lean)
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76ers vs. Spurs Spread & Total Predictions
Spurs -7.5
The Spurs are going to be so mad.
After losing to the Nuggets in overtime on Saturday, they look mortal after months of looking like the best team in basketball, with a winning record against the Thunder on top.
That’s going to fuel a renewed focus. Losses are better than wins for improving your play. You can’t really be motivated to change after wins.
The Spurs are 15-4 SU and 12-7 ATS this season — with a +4.1 spread differential after losses.
The Sixers are fully healthy for once, supposedly, and they are 6-2 this season with Tyrese Maxey, Joel Embiid, and Paul George together on the road this season — but only one of those games was against a serious opponent, the Knicks.
Embiid dropped 70 points on Victor Wembanyama two years ago, and you can expect Embiid to body the phenom at the rim, like Nikola Jokic did.
However, the Sixers are 10-19 SU with a -2.7 spread differential against top-10 defenses this season. They are 13-21 ATS against playoff teams, though they are 8-7 with Embiid.
Ultimately, I still believe this line should be closer to 10.4, and I have it projected at Spurs -14, though that’s complicated by the Sixers’ unstable injury situation.
Under 237.5
The under is 14-5 in Spurs games after a loss this season.
Embiid, once again, tips this. The over hits more often when he plays, but San Antonio has the types of guards to slow down an injured Maxey and the other Sixers guards.
In particular, the bench minutes will likely be where the Spurs make runs here.
San Antonio may also have issues with Embiid defensively at the rim. Their offense doesn’t create many cuts and easy actions at the rim.
The Spurs are elite, and the Sixers are still a little unstable. I don’t think the Sixers are ready for the hornets' nest they are walking into with a San Antonio team that really wants to get back on track.
Picks: Spurs -7.5, Under 237
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Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets Spread & Total Bets
Trail Blazers +8.5
The Blazers are without Jerami Grant, the Nuggets are without several forwards, Peyton Watson, Spencer Jones, and Zeke Nnaji.
The Nuggets are coming off their biggest win of the season, their overtime win against the Spurs.
It’s a letdown situation if there ever was one.
Denver lost to the Blazers in a nail-biter early in the season, then absolutely annihilated them twice thereafter. It’s hard to absolutely vanquish a team three times in a row, especially a division opponent and especially after such a big win on Saturday.
Portland has size to combat Jokic with Donovan Clingan, who hit several threes in the last matchup. The Blazers guards aren’t great at scoring, but the Nuggets’ pick-and-roll defense is weak enough to allow high efficiency.
Denver’s Aaron Gordon was hobbled in the Spurs game despite several key defensive plays late. If his injury is re-aggravated, they’ll have to shut him down. The Nuggets want to wind down on minutes for the starters, not go heavy the last week of the situation.
Denver has been bad at home this season, going 19-19 ATS. Even with their improved performance as of late, they’re 3-3 ATS at home in their last six.
Portland is inconsistent but also has more on the line here. Denver is close to being locked into either the 3-seed or 4-seed, while Portland is battling for the 8th spot and two chances in the play-in instead of just one.
The Nuggets have been good lately, which means they’re bound to suffer some sort of letdown. It’s a good spot and a good number against a competitive Blazers squad.
Under 239.5
The under is a good look here.
The under is 22-17 in Blazers road games, and while Denver’s offense is the best in the land, they play at a slower pace. Meanwhile, Portland plays fast, but inefficiently.
Even with Denver’s defense, it should be a lower-scoring affair. I make this total 233.7.
This can be a high-scoring game and still go under this line. I’ll play for a slower, less efficient game with Portland dictating terms.
Picks: Trail Blazers +8.5, Under 239.5
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