Thursday NBA Player Prop Bets & Picks: Kelly Oubre, Revenge Game (Jan. 28)
Rocky Widner/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Kelly Oubre Jr. #12 of the Golden State Warriors.
- Thursday's slate doesn't offer a ton in terms of games to bet on, but there is one game that stands out for Brandon Anderson.
- Using our Action Labs prop tool, Brandon has his eye on two props in tonight's Warriors vs. Suns game.
- Check out why he's buying in on a big game from Kelly Oubre.
It’s a rough slate tonight. Just four games on the schedule and a bunch of key names missing or questionable means plenty of wonky or missing lines and not many options on the board.
If you need a night off after all our winning of late, tonight is a good night for it.
But if you want to play, let me sell you on an angle: Kelly. Oubre. Revenge. Game.
Oubre had a lovely breakout season for the Phoenix Suns one year ago but was dumped unceremoniously in the Chris Paul trade and then re-routed eventually to the Warriors.
Tonight Oubre gets a crack at his old team for the first time, and he’s no stranger to revenge games. On top of that, the Golden State Warriors are reportedly shopping Oubre for Lonzo Ball or another player that can fit the roster better.
What better time to showcase an extra motivated Oubre than a national TV game against his old team?
For those who are new to this article, we’ll be using the Action Labs Player Prop tool to compare our NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
Below, I have laid out two prop bets that I’m playing, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.
NBA Player Props & Picks
Kelly Oubre, Over 14.5 points (-110)
|Warriors at Suns||Suns -1.5 (DraftKings)|
|Time||10 p.m. ET|
You might remember poor Oubre having an absolutely miserable start to his time with the Warriors.
Oubre scored 17 points combined in 76 minutes over his first three games with the Warriors, shooting a horrible 7-of-40 from the field. He didn’t even make a single shot that wasn’t a dunk until his fourth game and immediately felt like he played his way into the doghouse.
But Oubre has looked better of late. He’s scored at least 14 points in six of his past eight games, and looks a lot more comfortable on the floor. He’s averaging 14.5 points, 5.8 rebounds, and 1.9 assists during that stretch and looks like what he was supposed to be now — an athletic wing who has revitalized the team with energy plays.
A motivated, energized Oubre is one worth betting on, and you have to believe Oubre will be plenty motivated and energized with trade rumors swirling and a date with the team that just dumped him this offseason. The Warriors have never been opposed to being a little petty either, and the Suns have been struggling lately.
This is no slam dunk, and we’re projecting Oubre right around his number (13.9), but I like the revenge angle enough to grab the Oubre points over here. Let’s have a little fun and see if Wave Papi can become the storyline of a random Thursday night in January.
Andrew Wiggins, Under 5.5 Rebounds (-134)
Part of the reason Oubre seems to be on the outs in Golden State is because the team seems pretty happy with Andrew Wiggins lately. There’s nothing particularly special about the number. At 17.8 points, 4.9 rebounds, and 2.2 assists, this is just another typical Wiggins season for now.
The shooting efficiency is up a bit, which makes sense on a better team where Wiggins is the third or fourth option, but otherwise this is still pretty much the same player, just one playing a smaller and more suitable role.
Wiggins and Oubre both play on the wing, and if we expect more minutes and touches than usual for Oubre, then it’s reasonable to expect Wiggins to fade into the background a bit at the same time. After all, Wiggins is no stranger to disappearing for large stretches of a game, and Stephen Curry, Draymond Green, and James Wiseman are all going to need their touches too.
When Wiggins is not engaged, his energy disappears, and that’s the angle here. Wiggins is under this rebounding number in exactly half his games this year, and he’s had three boards or fewer seven times already. He’s averaging 4.5 RPG over the last 12 games and that’s right about where we project him, giving this prop an 8% edge in our favor.
Besides, this isn’t the Cavs, Raptors, or Thunder, so this isn’t one of the 10 games a year Wiggins actually tries. Not that I’m a bitter Timberwolves fan or anything.
I’ll play this Wiggins under to -145. And if you want to be bold, you can play under -4.5 at FanDuel for plus juice instead. He’s only had exactly five rebounds once all year, so if he does go low here, he may go under by a few.