Tuesday’s Best NBA Props & Betting Picks: Where Have You Gone, Aron Baynes?
Photo by Barry Gossage/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Aron Baynes #46 of the Phoenix Suns
Betting on props can be one of the easiest ways to build your bankroll. Sportsbooks tend to offer lower limits and take less action on props than they do on games, so they don’t have as much incentive to post an accurate line.
That’s where our Player Prop tool comes in handy. We compare our industry-leading NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks to identify the best plays each day. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
Odds as of Tuesday afternoon and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150). No strings attached. No rollover required.
How about a little reminder on just how impressively these bets did last season? Props with a Bet Quality of 10 posted a win rate of 60.31%, and props with a Bet Quality of nine won at a 58.82% clip.
As is the case with most sports, betting on unders proved to be more profitable than betting on overs last season:
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 10: 341-172 (66.47%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 9: 457-273 (62.6%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 8: 898-589 (60.39%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 7: 1447-1086 (57.13%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 6: 1992-1663 (54.95%)
Overall, if you just blind bet every under with a Bet Quality of eight or higher, you would’ve won at a 62.1% clip on more than 2,700 bets.
Tonight’s props come from three of the slate’s six games:
- Phoenix Suns at Atlanta Hawks: 7:30 p.m. ET
- New York Knicks at Milwaukee Bucks: 8:00 p.m. ET
- Dallas Mavericks at Golden State Warriors: 10:30 p.m. ET on NBA TV
Let’s dive in.
Suns C Aron Baynes
THE PICK: Under 7 rebounds (-120) | Under 10.5 points (-125) [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
Remember when Aron Baynes was getting real live All-Star whispers? Baynes averaged 17.4 points a game in his first nine starts with Deandre Ayton sidelined, but an injury came soon after and reality set in, and now Baynes is back to being a reliable backup.
Baynes has slowed way down of late, averaging just 9.0 points and 7.5 rebounds over his past six games. The biggest reason for that is his reduced load of only 23 minutes a game with Ayton back, and those numbers drop even further if you overlook a 20/12 night against the lowly Knicks.
Baynes has scored single-digit points in five of those last six, and he’s gone under seven rebounds in 10 of 16 games since returning from injury. We’re projecting him at only 18.3 minutes tonight, which puts him at 7.0 points and 3.9 boards, far short on both lines.
I prefer the points, but you can play that one up to -150 and the rebounds up to -140, and don’t be afraid to ride both.
Bucks C Brook Lopez
THE PICK: Under 5.5 rebounds (-134) [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
Brook Lopez is having an awesome, but overlooked season. His shooting spaces out the defense, and his D on the other end could put him in contention for Defensive Player of the Year. But both of those things limit Lopez’s rebounding a bit, putting him out of position to grab a high number of boards.
Brook’s brother Robin is out tonight, so this line bumped up a bit, but Lopez shouldn’t need to increase his load against the Knicks. He could even end up playing less than usual if it’s a blowout. BroLo is averaging only 4.8 boards a game, and he’s gone under this number in 26 of 39 games this season, a 67% success rate.
Play this under as high as -150.
Warriors SF Glenn Robinson III
THE PICK: Over4.5 rebounds (-152) [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
Glenn Robinson III is basically a minutes play, and the minutes should tick up again tonight with the Warriors expected to be missing Ky Bowman, Damion Lee and Jordan Poole, among others. That means more playing time for GRIII, and we project him at 33 minutes tonight.
Robinson is averaging 4.8 rebounds a game this season, but he’s already gone over this total 12 times when he plays more than 30 minutes. That shouldn’t be a problem tonight.
Grab the over 4.5 before they bump it to 5, and play this one up to -165.