Friday NBA Player Prop Bets, Picks: Jakob Poeltl, De’Aaron Fox Highlight Card (Oct. 22)
Steph Chambers/Getty Images. Pictured: De’Aaron Fox
- We have another busy schedule on Friday's NBA slate, with plenty of player props on the betting card.
- Basketball analyst Brandon Anderson lays out his three best wagers, which feature a lot of juice
- Check out below where he has landed, including a play on De'Aaron Fox.
Uhh ohhh… guess what day it is. GUYS. Guys, guys, guys, guess. what. day. it is.
PLUS JUICE DAYYYY!!!!
If you’re new to Plus Juice Day, welcome. Now that we’ve got some winners on the board at 2-1 the last two days, it’s time to get some of that Opening Night money back with a little extra juice.
All three of today’s props are plus-juice lines in our favor — though admittedly not by much. I’d play each of these plays down to -120, so all the better if we like them anyway but get even more bang for our buck at plus juice.
For those who are new to this article, we’ll be using the Action Labs Player Prop tool to compare our NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade. All three of today’s plays are graded a perfect 10.
Below, I have laid out three prop bets that I’m playing, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.
NBA Player Props & Picks
Robert Williams, over 16.5 points + rebounds (+105)
|Raptors vs. Celtics||Celtics -6.5|
|Time | TV||7:30 p.m. ET | League Pass|
The first rule of Props Club is we do NOT talk about Props Club. The second rule of Props Club is: if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.
If you find a good trend with a clear edge on the books, your only job is to keep hammering that trend until the books adjust. Books are notoriously slow to adjust on props trends, especially early in the season.
That’s why we’re going right back to the well on Boston’s Robert Williams. Think of it like being a good point guard. Timelord got us on the board with our first win of the season on Wednesday, and he’s been running hard and playing well, so we’re gonna reward our big man with another look.
Williams was an absolute monster in the season opener. He piled up 16 points and 10 rebounds, smashing the 14.5 points + rebounds over we played, and he also added five blocks, three steals, and three assists. He hit our over on points alone, and yes he played 45 minutes thanks to the double overtime, but we already hit our over in the third quarter so that was all just gravy from there.
Maybe the most important Williams number from the opener? One. That’s how many fouls Timelord had, and that foul was deep into the overtime periods. Williams has always been a monster when on the court — the issue is just staying out there long enough.
But with Al Horford still questionable with a conditioning issue, that should limit his minutes even if he does play, and only foul trouble can keep Robert Williams off the court now.
The books nudged this line up from 14.5 to 16.5, but they haven’t adjusted far enough — and now we get plus juice for our trouble too. Remember, Williams played at least 22 minutes 20 times last season and averaged 19.8 PR in those games. He went over 16.5 PR in 14 of those 20 games, and in four of the six misses, he missed by 0.5. And we should get well over 22 minutes tonight.
I told you this line was too low in the opener at 14.5 and that I’d play as high as 17.5. The books still haven’t made it there yet and now we get plus juice too. Drink up.
Jakob Poeltl, over 7.5 rebounds (+105)
|Spurs vs. Nuggets||Nuggets -7.5|
|Time | TV||9:00 p.m. ET | League Pass|
G’day mate! Let’s put another shrimp on the barbie with an Austrian rebounder!
The Spurs big man had a big season opener with 12 points, 13 rebounds, and a surprising seven assists in 30 minutes. He was an offensive rebounding machine with eight offensive boards, his most ever with the Spurs.
The rebounding was what caught my eye, especially crashing the offensive glass. That looks like a purposeful strategy from the Spurs, and Poeltl has always been strong on the offensive glass so it makes sense.
Poeltl’s rebounding was already up this preseason, and not just in minutes. His rebounding rate is up this year. In the past three years with the Spurs, Poeltl snagged a rebound every 3.2 minutes. That improved to one every 2.7 minutes in the preseason, and while that may not sound like much, that’s an extra 4.4 rebounds per 36 minutes, almost a 40% increase. And Poeltl grabbed a rebound every 2.3 minutes in the opener — even better!
Last year, Poeltl went over 7.5 rebounds in 35 of 69 games, almost exactly half of them. That’s why this line is basically a coin flip here. But LaMarcus Aldridge ate into Poeltl’s playing time for a big chunk of last season. Once the Austrian moved into the starting lineup, that changed dramatically with Poeltl going over 7.5 boards in 32 of 48 games, hitting this over 67% of the time with 8.7 RPG.
Rebounds and big men may not be sexy, but winning money is sexy. San Antonio will need plenty of Poeltl minutes against the reigning MVP in Denver, so I like him to go over this rebounding prop. We’re projecting Poeltl at 8.9 boards and grading this prop a 10 out of 10.
Oh, and Poeltl rhymes with turtle. The more you know.
De’Aaron Fox, over 5.5 assists (+115)
|Jazz vs. Kings||Jazz -6.5|
|Time | TV||10:00 p.m. ET | League Pass|
Dog goes woof, cat goes meow, bird goes tweet. But what does the Fox say?
De’Aaron Fox says breakout candidate this year, and he could be a first-time All-Star and even a Most Improved Player candidate if things go well for both Fox and the Kings. And he’s off to a good start, with 27 points, five rebounds, and eight assists in an upset victory on the road in Portland to kick things off.
The best way to predict breakouts is to pick the guys who have already broken out, and that may be the case with Fox. Did you know he was already over 25 PPG last season? The scoring already took a leap, but his assists per game look a bit stagnant at 7.3, 6.8, and 7.2 APG over the last three years.
Dig a little deeper though. Fox had a rough start to last season but really took off after the first couple months. From February 1 forward, Fox averaged 7.7 APG, way up from the 6.1 APG he had been averaging before that. From February through season end, Fox went over 5.5 assists in 33 of 39 games, hitting this over line an astounding 85% of the time. And four of those six misses were by a single assist too.
This line is insulting. It’s insulting to De’Aaron Fox as a player and insulting to us as bettors. This is a tough defensive matchup against the Jazz, but Fox is going to get his. I’m not worried about Tyrese Haliburton or Davion Mitchell eating into Fox’s touches, especially against a tough opponent.
I like Fox to go well above this number in Sacramento’s home opener and ring the bell with another winner. This line should move to 6.5 or higher very quickly, and I can’t believe we’re getting plus juice here.