Monday NBA Player Props: How to Bet Jimmy Butler’s Assists, Torrey Craig’s Rebounds, More
Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images. Pictured: Torrey Craig.
Betting on props can be one of the easiest ways to build your bankroll. Sportsbooks tend to offer lower limits and take less action on props than they do on games, so they don’t have as much incentive to post an accurate line.
That’s where our Player Prop tool comes in handy. We compare our industry-leading NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks to identify the best plays each day. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
Here’s how those props did this season prior to the shutdown:
|FantasyLabs Grade||Win-Loss (Win Pct)|
|Bet Quality of 10||775-572 (57%)|
|Bet Quality of 9||942-776 (54%)|
|Bet Quality of 8||1432-1263 (52%)|
Tonight’s props come from three of the slate’s five games:
- Dallas Mavericks vs. Utah Jazz at 3 p.m. ET on NBA TV
- Indiana Pacers vs. Miami Heat at 8 p.m. ET
- Denver Nuggets vs. Los Angeles Lakers at 9 p.m. ET on TNT
NBA Player Prop Bets
Dallas Mavericks, Tim Hardaway Jr.
The Prop: Over 18.5 points (-120)
The Mavericks look like a no-show for Monday’s game. Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis are both sitting this one out with injuries, aka rest. Dallas will also be missing Dorian Finney-Smith, and is already without Dwight Powell and Jalen Brunson. The Mavs are clearly just taking this week to get right and ready for the playoffs.
But there’s still a game to play today, and someone in Dallas is going to have to shoot. There’s over 50 Dallas field goal attempts up for grabs, and Tim Hardaway Jr. sure seems like the most likely candidate to lead the team in shots and scoring. Hardaway Jr. can be a streaky scorer, so you’re probably missing or hitting this one with plenty of margin. Our props tool rates this a 9 out of 10, and I’m playing Hardaway Jr.’s points up to -140.
Miami Heat, Jimmy Butler
The Prop: Over 4.5 assists (-140)
Jimmy Butler has missed the last three games in the bubble, but he’s probable Monday and looks set to play refreshed after a full week of rest, in a game Miami will want to have against Indiana. A rested Butler is always a good thing, and he’s averaging a career-high 6.1 assists per game with Miami.
But that number should be even higher today with Kendrick Nunn out. Nunn has left the bubble for personal reasons, and that should leave even more of the ball-handling and creation to Butler. In three games without Nunn this year that Butler played, Jimmy recorded 7, 7 and 2 assists.
The over 4.5 here is a gimme. Butler has gone over 4.5 assists in 38 of his 56 Miami games, a whopping 68% hit rate, and that’s why this one is quickly getting bet up. I’m happy to ride the over 4.5 as high as -175, but I also think there’s a good chance this one jumps to 5.0 and I don’t mind waiting for that. Worst case scenario is likely a push, and you might get back closer to +EV if the line moves up. Our models project Butler at 6.0 assists, and I think he has a pretty good chance to clear that.
Denver Nuggets, Torrey Craig
The Prop: Over 4.5 rebounds (+109), Over 7.5 points (-111)
Torrey Craig is a bet on volume, like many good over prop bets. Denver remains short-handed on the wing with Gary Harris and Will Barton out, and Craig has averaged over 28 minutes a game in the bubble. There’s no reason to expect that to go away now, especially since he is by far Denver’s best defensive option against LeBron James. If anything, I expect his minutes up even further to try to match LeBron every step of the way.
Craig is averaging 9.6 points and 4.0 rebounds in the bubble. He’s gone over 7.5 points in four of five games, though he’s hit the rebound over only twice. Craig is out there to play defense and fill a role, but if you play 30 minutes, you’re going to get a few numbers.
Our models have Craig at 30.6 minutes, 8.8 points and 5.2 rebounds, and rate both of these props as a 9. I prefer the points simply because you can get 2 and 3 at a time. Even one three for Craig makes the over a near lock, whereas rebounding could leave him a bit short if he’s focused solely on LeBron. But if you like Craig to play a lot of minutes in a game Denver will want to win, you can grab both of these. I’d play the rebounds to +100 and the points as high as -130.