Wednesday’s Best NBA Player Props: Can Kendrick Nunn Stave Off Regression?

Betting on props can be one of the easiest ways to build your bankroll. Sportsbooks tend to offer lower limits and take less action on props than they do on games, so they don’t have as much incentive to post an accurate line.

That’s where our Player Prop tool comes in handy. We compare our industry-leading NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks to identify the best plays each day. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.

Last season, props with a Bet Quality of 10 posted a win rate of 60.31%, and props with a Bet Quality of nine won at a 58.82% clip.

As is the case with most sports, betting on unders proved to be more profitable than betting on overs last season:

• Unders with a Bet Quality of 10: 341-172 (66.47%)
• Unders with a Bet Quality of 9: 457-273 (62.6%)
• Unders with a Bet Quality of 8: 898-589 (60.39%)
• Unders with a Bet Quality of 7: 1447-1086 (57.13%)
• Unders with a Bet Quality of 6: 1992-1663 (54.95%)

Overall, if you just blind bet every under with a Bet Quality of 8 or higher, you would’ve won at a 62.1% clip on more than 2,700 bets.

Tonight’s props come from four of the slate’s 11 games:

• Cleveland Cavaliers at Miami Heat: 7:30 p.m. ET
• Golden State Warriors at Dallas Mavericks: 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN
• Charlotte Hornets at Brooklyn Nets: 7:30 p.m. ET
• Houston Rockets at Denver Nuggets: 9 p.m. ET

Let’s jump in.

Heat G Kendrick Nunn

THE PICK: Under 17.5 points (-120)

Nunn has gotten off to a fantastic start this season. He’s averaging 17.8 points per game through his first 12 games, which trails only Ja Morant among rookies. He’s also scored at least 20 points in three straight games.

That said, I think this is the perfect time to sell high on him. He played huge minutes in those contests — he averaged 37.7 minutes per game — and he also shot 51.0% from the field and 42.7% from 3-point range.

He should see a few less minutes and shot attempts with Jimmy Butler and Goran Dragic back in the lineup, so any decrease in efficiency could result in a big decline in scoring. The Cavaliers have also played at the seventh-fewest pace this season, so this isn’t an ideal matchup either.

Add it all up, and I think this is a great spot to fade Nunn. I like the under up to -140.
[In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]

Mavericks SG Tim Hardaway Jr.

THE PICK: Over 10.5 points (-121)

Hardaway is coming off zero points in his last contest, and he’s mired in an awful shooting slump to begin the season. He’s shot just 34.4% from the field and 29.5% from 3-point range, and those numbers have dipped to 24.3% and 14.3% over his past four games. Basically, Hardaway couldn’t hit water if he fell out of a boat at the moment.

Still, he’s not going to shoot the ball that poorly forever, and there’s no better medicine for poor scoring numbers than a matchup vs. the Warriors. They’ve been a disaster defensively to start the season, and they will also be on the road for the second leg of a back-to-back.

Seth Curry has also been ruled out for today’s contest, so Hardaway could see a few additional minutes of playing time.

I love this prop because we can win it in a variety of ways. THJ could hit the over through increased volume or increased efficiency in an elite matchup. I like this prop up to -145.
[In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]

Hornets C Cody Zeller

THE PICK: Under 11.5 points (+110)

The Hornets are in an excellent spot today vs. the Nets, but that doesn’t necessarily guarantee success for Zeller. Head coach James Borrego has limited his minutes recently in an effort to keep him healthy for the entire season.

He’s played 28.0 minutes or fewer in each of his past three games, including just 15.7 minutes in his last game. Unsurprisingly, he’s scored 10 points or fewer in each of those contests.

The Nets have hemorrhaged points to opposing centers this season, but I’m willing to roll the dice on this prop at better than even money. It stops looking like a value around -110.
[In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]

Rockets G Danuel House

THE PICK: Over 10.5 points (+100)

House has been a staple of my prop betting piece this season, and he’s come through for us pretty frequently. If you remove the game he left early vs. the Pelicans due to injury, House has hit the over on his current prop in six of his past seven games.

He scored 11 points and played 34.1 minutes in his first game back from injury, and the Rockets ultimately won that game by 24 points. It’s possible he could see an even larger workload today in what’s expected to be a competitive contest vs. the Denver Nuggets.

This prop just seems underpriced given what we’ve seen from House this season. I like the over up to -130.
[In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]