Bucks vs. Hawks Player Prop Bets: 3 Picks for Game 6, Including Jrue Holiday & Clint Capela (Saturday, July 3)
- The Eastern Conference Finals heads to Atlanta for Game 6 of Bucks vs. Hawks on Saturday night.
- Giannis Antetokounmpo is already out, and Trae Young in listed as questionable before the tip.
- Daniel Titus lays out his three favorite player props for tonight's game, below.
Happy July Fourth weekend.
Saturday night brings us one step closer to crowning an Eastern Conference champion. The Bucks hold a 3-2 lead over the Hawks, and they’ll head to Atlanta with an opportunity to close out the series in six games. If there’s one thing the Hawks have shown in the 2021 playoffs, it’s their unwavering resiliency.
They pulled off an improbable upset over the Sixers in the conference semifinals by taking the final two games of the series, and they’ll have to do it again if they’re destined to make their first NBA Finals appearance since 1961.
Giannis Antetekounmpo (knee) is doubtful, and Trae Young (bone bruise) is questionable for Game 6. Young will likely be upgraded to a game-time decision as the world awaits word of his status following pre-game warmups.
The Hawks are 2-point favorites on their home court with a game total of 216.5. The Hawks are 4-3 at home in the playoffs, with the Bucks sporting an even 4-4 record on the road. More impressively, as a favorite under Nate McMillan, the Hawks are 14-2 ATS in their last 16 games — but that was with Trae Young in the lineup, per ESPN Stats and Info.
It took a couple of playoff career-highs from Brook Lopez and Bobby Portis, along with Jrue Holiday taking the reins to get it done in Game 5 for the Bucks. Can the Hawks’ role players step up in a similar fashion to force Game 7?
For today’s props, I’m rolling with Clint Capela to get at least one assist, Bobby Portis hitting his rebound + assist combo market, and fading Jrue Holiday in a series-clinching game.
For those who are new to this article, we’ll be using the Action Labs Player Prop tool to compare our NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
Below, I have laid out three prop bets that I’m playing, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.
NBA Player Props & Picks
Clint Capela over 0.5 Assists (-152)
|Team vs. Team||Hawks -2|
|Time |||8:30 p.m. ET | TNT|
Atlanta’s starting center is typically known for his rebounding and shot-blocking. He led the NBA in rebounding this season with 14.3 per contest while swatting 2.0 shots a game. However, Capela hasn’t been as reliable on the glass lately. His rebounding numbers have dropped to 10.6 per game in the Eastern Conference Finals. With his rebounding market sitting at 10.5, there’s another angle that I like better and that’s his assist line at 0.5.
While it may appear to be a longshot, Capela distributed at least one assist in seven straight games at home with an average of 1.6 assists per game over that span, per Fansure. Vegas has Capela at a ~60% chance to eclipse 0.5 assists, and that is slightly undervalued considering his play against the Bucks this season. The Swiss big man has at least one assist in five of his last six games versus Milwaukee (including the playoffs).
He hasn’t played more than 30 minutes since Game 1, but with the season on the line, Capela should be in line for a healthy dose of minutes. He’s also been recovering from inflammation in his eye after taking an elbow from Sam Merrill in Game 4.
Bobby Portis over 10.5 Rebounds + Assists (-122)
|Bucks vs. Hawks||Hawks -2|
|Time | TV||8:30 p.m. ET | TNT|
Bobby Portis, aka Bobby Buckets, had a coming-out party in Game 5, delivering a playoff career-high of 22 points with eight rebounds and three assists across 36 minutes.
While we’re paying a premium for last game’s explosion, he’s likely earned another start with Giannis Antetekounmpo ruled out for Saturday’s contest. His rebounds + assists combo market is 10.5, and I’m riding the hot hand in a potential series-ending game.
Portis has only hit 10.5 rebounds + assists once in the 2021 Playoffs. He’s been in a bench role for most of the season and finding viable minutes behind one of the NBA’s best players is hard to come by. But he’s proven to put numbers on the board when given the opportunity.
His per-36 averages in the regular season amount to 19.8 points, 12.2 rebounds, and 1.9 assists. His playoff per-36 numbers haven’t tapered off much, averaging 18.2 points, 10.3 rebounds and 1.4 assists.
Without Giannis in the lineup, Portis has accumulated at least 10.5 rebounds + assists in 9-of-10 games this season.
The 25-year old fed off the energy of the Milwaukee crowd in his first playoff start, and he’s had success against the Hawks all season long. In the last two games, he’s averaging 3.0 potential assists along with 11.5 rebound opportunities.
Our Action Labs projection tool has Portis collecting 13.7 rebounds + assists in Game 6. With a bet quality rating of 10, I’m taking the over on him hitting his combo market on the road with a chance at heading to the NBA Finals. I’d play this up to 11.5 RA at plus odds (+128) on FanDuel.
Jrue Holiday under 16.5 Rebounds + Assists, Prop (-125)
|Bucks vs. Hawks||Hawks -2|
|Time | TV||8:30 p.m. ET | TNT|
Charles Barkley finally predicted something right. Ahead of Game 5, he mentioned on TNT’s Inside the NBA that Jrue Holiday needed to be “the best player on the court” and remain aggressive if the Bucks were going to win Game 5. Holiday did just that and then some.
He only had a 23% usage rate but delivered 25 points with 13 assists and six rebounds in 42 minutes. He dished out six of his 13 assists in the first quarter alone. Game 5 was a statement game for the former All-Star, but I’m fading his 16.5 rebounds + assists combo market in Game 6.
Despite averaging 39.1 minutes in the Conference Finals, Game 5 was the first time in this postseason where Holiday surpassed 16.5 rebounds + assists. He did not accumulate this number in the seven previous matchups against Atlanta this season either.
There is certainly a Giannis factor at play here. He’s been ruled out for Game 6 and his change of pace ignited a Bucks offense that left the Hawks stunned in Game 5. After the game, Hawks interim head coach Nate McMillan was quick to recognize and denounce his team’s poor play defensively, specifically protecting the paint.
Jrue Holiday was the primary reason for the Hawks’ struggles, constantly putting pressure on their defense, drawing attention, and putting his teammates in positions to get easy buckets around the rim.
Now, I expect Holiday to keep his foot on the gas with the chance to make the first NBA Finals appearance of his career. However, I think the Hawks will come out and play more inspired basketball and make adjustments defensively to prevent Holiday from being as disruptive offensively as he was in Game 5.
According to the props cash tool, Holiday has only hit 16.5 RA in 6-of-75 games this season and 2-of-16 times in the playoffs. When factoring in his play without Giannis on the court, he eclipsed 16.5 RA in only 3-of-9 games this season.
We project Holiday to amass 14.7 rebounds + assists in Game 6, and I am taking the under. While I expect him to still make an impact on the game, the Hawks’ defense will be much improved with their season on the line.