Wednesday NBA Player Prop Bets, Picks: 3 Bets on Point Guards, Including Russell Westbrook (April 28)
Stephen Gosling, Layne Murdoch Jr. & Michael Swan/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured, from left: Russell Westbrook #4 of the Washington Wizards, Eric Bledsoe #5 of the New Orleans Pelicans and Joe Ingles #2 of the Utah Jazz.
- Using the Action Labs Props Tool, Brandon Anderson uncovers the top 3 NBA player props for Wednesday night's slate of games.
- Anderson's top 3 focuses on point guards, featuring Mr. Everything, Russell Westbrook, the fickle Eric Bledsoe and ... Joe Ingles?
- Below, find Anderson's full NBA player props betting guide for Wednesday, April 28, including which sportsbooks are offering the best odds for each of his top 3 picks.
It’s Point Guard Night here at Action Network … kind of.
Russell Westbrook is a point guard unlike any we’ve ever seen before, stealthily chasing down Oscar Robertson’s triple-double record. Eric Bledsoe is a more traditional point, and Joe Ingles isn’t a point guard at all — but he might have to be tonight for the shorthanded Utah Jazz.
For those who are new to this article, we’ll be using the Action Labs Player Prop tool to compare our NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1 to 10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
Below, I have laid out three prop bets that I’m playing on Wednesday, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.
NBA Player Props & Picks
Russell Westbrook, under 11.5 assists (+105)
|Lakers vs. Wizards||Lakers -1 (-115)|
|Time | TV||7:30 p.m. ET | ESPN|
Over his last eight games, Russell Westbrook is “only” averaging 18.0 points, 13.0 rebounds, and 11.8 assists. That’s an absurd sentence to write — that a player is “only” averaging a triple-double over an eight-game span — and that includes six actual triple-doubles during that stretch.
Then, you examine Westbrook’s previous nine games before this (from March 29 to April 12), and it’s easy to understand why we had to use the word “only.” During that stretch, Westbrook averaged 22.9 points, 13.4 rebounds, and 13.3 assists per game — somehow even better in all three categories than this recent stretch since April 14. He had a triple-double in all but one of those games, at least 11 assists in all but one game and at least 11 rebounds in every game.
So what changed? Bradley Beal, of course.
Beal missed most of that previous stretch of nine games but is back to “potential-scoring-champion Beal” during the last eight games. That necessarily means more time on the ball for Beal and less for Westbrook.
Remember how Westbrook had at least 11 assists in all but one game of the earlier nine-game stretch? He’s had at most 11 assists in all but two games of the more recent eight-game stretch. Since our line is at 11.5 assists, that means Westbrook has gone under 11.5 dimes in six of his last eight contests, hitting the under 75% of the time.
Look — a line of 11.5 dimes is patently absurd, and it speaks to Westbrook’s greatness that we even have to debate this. But, add in a tough matchup against a great Lakers defense on top of the recent numbers dip, and it becomes clear that the under is the better play.
We project Westbrook at 10.2 dimes, so he can still get that triple-double. We just need him to not get to 12. I love this prop bet at plus money but would play to -125 if needed.
Eric Bledsoe, under 11.5 points (-113)
|Pelicans vs. Nuggets||Nuggets -4 (-112)|
|Time | TV||9 p.m. ET | ALT, BSNO|
Soooo … I guess we’re back to Eric Bledsoe not being a core component of the Pelicans again?
Suffice it to say that Bledsoe has had a very up and down year. There have been times when he appeared to be integral to what the Pelicans were doing, putting up his typical scoring and assist numbers. But, there have been other moments when Bledsoe looks totally out of place as a non-shooter, non-ball-mover for a team on which he does not fit — and he looks practically invisible out there on the court.
These days, it’s that latter version of Bledsoe that’s been playing for New Orleans. Over the past 10 games, Bledsoe is averaging just 11.0 points, 3.4 rebounds, and 2.8 assists per game — and that’s despite starting every game and playing over 28 minutes per outing. He has logged single-digit points totals in more than half of those games, and he’s had three or fewer assists in all but three of them.
Our Props Tool is fading Bledsoe from every angle tonight, so it’s dealer’s choice on either one stat or the right combination. I’m opting to simply stick with the points. At 11.5, if Bledsoe is invisible like he often has been lately, he should go under that easily enough. If he does show up and go over 11.5, like he does at times, he’s probably going to go over by enough to screw up any other combination prop involving points anyway. So, I may as well just play the points and not risk adding in rebounds or assists.
We project Bledsoe at 9.1 points, and that would be higher than his median outcome of 8.5 during this 10-game stretch. So, unless he randomly takes and makes a bunch of 3s against the Nuggets, we should be sitting pretty. I’ll fade Bledsoe as high as -140.
Joe Ingles, over 6.5 assists (+100)
|Jazz vs. Kings||Jazz -9 (-114)|
|Time | TV||10 p.m. ET | NBCS-CA, ATTSN-RM|
On April 17, Joe Ingles recorded a season- and career-high 14 assists. Ingles started that game and played over 39 minutes in a tough road loss to the Lakers.
Hey, do you know what else happened on April 17? That was the only day this season when Utah was missing both Mike Conley and Donovan Mitchell.
And guess who Utah is missing tonight?
With Conley and Mitchell out, Utah has no choice but to turn over the car keys to Joe Ingles and Jordan Clarkson and ask them to save the day. Ingles isn’t the sort of guy to put up a big scoring number — that’s Clarkson’s job — but he’s the only creator the Jazz have tonight that can go out and create buckets for his teammates.
Over the last 10 games, Joe Ingles is averaging 6.0 assists per game — and he came off the bench for some of those! … and played with Conley for most of those games! Ingles is just that good anyway, and he has stepped up with Mitchell out. With Conley out too, he should step up even further and drop a whole bag of dimes on the hapless Kings defense.
We project Ingles at 7.8 assists, but I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see him get to double digits again. He’s gone over 6.5 assists 10 times already this season, and half of those games featured Ingles coming off the bench.
This line is simply too low with Conley and Clarkson out. I would’ve set it at 7.5 at least, and I certainly wouldn’t be giving even odds at 6.5.
I’m crushing the over 6.5 here with Ingles as the lead creator for the Jazz. I’d play it all the way to -150 if necessary.