Monday’s Best NBA Player Props: Betting Joel Embiid Points, More
Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Joel Embiid
- Monday features a nine-game NBA slate.
- This piece will focus on prop bets offering value for Blazers C Jusuf Nurkic, 76ers C Joel Embiid and Mavericks SF Harrison Barnes
Prop bets can be a great way to get action on a game. Bookmakers don’t have to worry about taking a lot of action on them, so there isn’t as great an incentive to post a competitive line.
As a result, props can be some of the most exploitable bets on the board.
These props can become downright unfair when you combine them with the FantasyLabs Player Prop tool.
Monday’s best props focus on three of the slate’s nine games:
- Indiana Pacers vs. Portland Trail Blazers: 7 p.m. ET
- Philadelphia 76ers vs. Atlanta Hawks: 7 p.m. ET
- San Antonio Spurs vs. Dallas Mavericks: 8:30 p.m. ET
Let’s dive right in.
Blazers C Jusuf Nurkic
The Pick: Under 10.5 rebounds (-115)
Nurkic is one of the better rebounders in the league — his rebound rate of 18.5% ranked 14th last season — but his limiting playing time ultimately caps his upside.
He exploded for 18 rebounds in one game this season, but in each of the other four he’s had 10 or fewer. The Blazers don’t necessarily need to play Nurkic much today against the Pacers, and he’s projected for just 26 minutes in our FantasyLabs NBA Models.
I’m playing the odds here and banking on a high-efficiency, low-volume game from Nurkic. I’d play this prop up to -130.
76ers C Joel Embiid
The Pick: Over 26.5 points (-114)
Philadelphia is implied for 121.25 points vs. the Atlanta Hawks, which is the top mark on today’s slate. The Hawks and 76ers both rank in the top eight in terms of pace this season, so this game could feature a lot of possessions.
That’d be good news for Embiid, who should be able to feast on the interior defense of Alex Len. He ranked 48th out of 57 qualifiers at the center position in terms of Defensive Real Plus/Minus last season.
This is a lot of points, but Embiid has massive upside considering the matchup. I’d play the over up to -140.
Mavericks SF Harrison Barnes
The Pick: Over 15.5 points (+100)
Barnes struggled to just seven points in his most recent contest, but there were still some positive signs in that game.
He played 34.5 minutes, which suggests that he’s officially over the hamstring injury that cost him the first four games of the season.
Barnes’ usage rate of 22.8% through his first two games is promising, but he’s been plagued by shooting just 26.7% from the field. He shot 44.5% last season, so he seems poised for some positive regression.
The Mavs could also be without Luka Doncic in today’s contest, which could give Barnes a huge boost from a scoring perspective. It’s a small sample size, but Barnes has seen a usage bump of +8.5% with Doncic off the floor this season.
Barnes averaged 18.9 points per game last season, so this line seems too low if he’s not playing limited minutes. I’d play this up to -170.