Best NBA Player Props & Betting Picks (Thursday, Nov. 21): Aron Baynes’ Injury Opening Up Big Value in Pelicans vs. Suns

Best NBA Player Props & Betting Picks (Thursday, Nov. 21): Aron Baynes’ Injury Opening Up Big Value in Pelicans vs. Suns article feature image
Credit:

© Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Dario Saric and Devin Booker

  • Suns center Aron Baynes will miss tonight's game between the New Orleans Pelicans and Phoenix Suns (10:30 p.m. ET).
  • After analyzing the betting odds and assessing the impact of the injury, our NBA expert Brandon Anderson has spotted two prop bets that have big value.
  • Can you expect Frank Kaminsky to grab more than 7.5 rebounds? Check out our picks and projections below.

Betting on props can be one of the easiest ways to build your bankroll. Sportsbooks tend to offer lower limits and take less action on props than they do on games, so they don’t have as much incentive to post an accurate line.

That’s where our Player Prop tool comes in handy. We compare our industry-leading NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks to identify the best plays each day. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.

How about a little reminder on just how impressively these bets did last season? Props with a Bet Quality of 10 posted a win rate of 60.31%, and props with a Bet Quality of nine won at a 58.82% clip.

As is the case with most sports, betting on unders proved to be more profitable than betting on overs last season:

  • Unders with a Bet Quality of 10: 341-172 (66.47%)
  • Unders with a Bet Quality of 9: 457-273 (62.6%)
  • Unders with a Bet Quality of 8: 898-589 (60.39%)
  • Unders with a Bet Quality of 7: 1447-1086 (57.13%)
  • Unders with a Bet Quality of 6: 1992-1663 (54.95%)

Overall, if you just blind bet every under with a Bet Quality of eight or higher, you would’ve won at a 62.1% clip on more than 2,700 bets.

Tonight’s props come from one of the slate’s two games:

  • New Orleans Pelicans at Phoenix Suns: 10:30 p.m. ET on TNT

Let’s dive in.

Suns C Frank Kaminsky

THE PICK: Under 7.5 rebounds (-152) [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]

Tonight’s props are all about opportunity. Kaminsky looked like he was breaking out early this season with Deandre Ayton suspended, then the Aron Baynes All-Star campaign broke out and stole most of Kaminsky’s minutes. Now Baynes is out injured, so Kaminsky will get another chance.

But Kaminksy still has to hold off Dario Saric and Cheick Diallo, and Diallo is a better rebounder and defender and could steal some of Frank’s minutes. Maybe that’s why our tool projects Kaminsky at just 5.9 rebounds, or maybe it’s because he’s only gone over this 7.5 four times all season.

Despite his size, Kaminsky has just a 9.9% rebounding percentage, so he’s going to need big minutes or sheer luck to get to eight boards. You can’t play this too much higher than -160 to find value.

Suns PF Dario Saric

THE PICK: Over 12.5 points (-110) | Over 6.5 rebounds (-130) [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]

There are only two props currently rated a 9 or better by our tool, but we’re going to sneak a third one in here (Saric rebounds, rated an 8). If Kaminsky doesn’t get big minutes, Saric has to almost by default. Saric is averaging only 10.4 points and 6.1 boards with the Suns, off to an uneven start.

Our models project Saric at 29 minutes and high usage. Phoenix is missing Ayton and Baynes as well as Ricky Rubio (doubtful), and New Orleans’s one good defender (Jrue Holiday) will be keying in on Devin Booker all night.

That all spells opportunity for Saric. We project Saric at 15.5 points, making that our only 10-rated prop of the night. If he plays enough to get the points, he might hit the boards too. Play both together up to -140.

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