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Raybon’s Favorite NBA Props for Thursday: Will Paul Millsap Drop 14 Points?


Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Denver Nuggets power forward Paul Millsap (4)

  • Chris Raybon breaks down his favorite NBA player props for Thursday night.
  • Props include point totals for 76ers C Joel Embiid and Nuggets PF Paul Millsap.

The two NBA player props highlighted below are from the following two playoff games Thursday night:

  • Philadelphia 76ers at Brooklyn Nets: 8 p.m. ET on TNT
  • Denver Nuggets at San Antonio Spurs: 9 p.m. ET on NBA TV

As a reminder, our FantasyLabs NBA Player Props Tool leverages our projections against odds offered at various sportsbooks and grades each prop on a scale of 1 to 10. All odds as of 4 p.m. ET. View live odds here.

76ers C Joel Embiid

THE PICK: Under 27.5 Points (-125)

Embiid’s per-minute scoring production during this series has been astounding: 22 points in 24 minutes in Game 1, and 23 points in 21 minutes in Game 2. If you’ve gotten a chance to watch him at all this series, then you know he’s obviously not in peak condition, and even if he’s out there for more minutes in Game 3, this is still a player who averaged 26.2 points in 34.2 minutes per game on the road during the regular season.

Our NBA Player Models have Embiid projected for 20.8 points in 27.1 minutes tonight, so there should still be value on the under down to a line of 25.5.

This prop is rated a 9 in Bet Quality in our NBA Player Props tool, and points props rated as such have crushed to the tune of a 61%/38%/1% win/loss/push rate this season.

Nuggets PF Paul Millsap

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