Wiseguys Targeting Nuggets-Spurs Game 3 Over/Under

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Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Jamal Murray and Derrick White

  • Three NBA Playoff games will tip off tonight, and one in particular has sharp bettors in agreement.
  • Sports Insights' Bet Signals and betting market percentages help reveal how pros are betting the Nuggets-Spurs (9 p.m. ET) over/under.

Three NBA Playoff games will tip off tonight, and sharp bettors seem to have found a favorite in the middle of the three, as they’ve caused oddsmakers to significantly adjust the Nuggets-Spurs over/under.

That’s not to suggest that the sharp betting market has kept quiet on the other two matchups tonight. Both the Sixers and Nets have attracted their share of sharp money depending on the number being listed at the time, and the same has gone for the Warriors and Clippers.

But neither game has drawn one-sided professional action in the way that the total in San Antonio has.

After combined scores of 197 and 219 in the first two meetings, tonight’s over/under opened at a market consensus of 212. But a slight majority of bettors are expecting this one to go down more like Game 1 than 2, as 55% have taken the under, and all indications point to sharps being among that majority.

For starters, the current line in the market sits at 208. A four-point move — even on a total — is extremely unlikely to be caused recreational bettors alone. Sportsbooks simply don’t weigh their opinions heavily enough to react so drastically.

That 55% backing has also generated 80% of actual money being wagered. While a monetary liability is something that can move a line, that discrepancy more importantly shows how bigger bettors — the ones more likely to be sharps — are approaching the total.

On top of all of that, two Sports Insights Bet Signals — in the form of steam moves — have hit the under at totals of 212 and 210.5. That overload of smart money has given oddsmakers no choice but to significantly reduce the total.

With a continuously decreasing total comes a growing opportunity for sharps to go for the middle, so it’s certainly possible that we’ll see the line eventually begin to make its way up again.

You can keep up with the live NBA lines via The Action Network App.

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