NBA Player Props Tonight | Picks for Warriors vs. Kings (Tuesday, April 16)

NBA Player Props Tonight | Picks for Warriors vs. Kings  (Tuesday, April 16) article feature image
Credit:

Vaughn Ridley/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Davion Mitchell of the Sacramento Kings.

The Western Conference made history this season.

This marks the first year in league history that 10 teams finished 10 games above .500 in a single season. While six of those teams have already clinched playoff berths, another spot will be claimed tonight when the Pelicans host the Lakers.

LeBron James will look to make sure that the Lakers are that team. However, one of his former teammates will have something to say about that.

Meanwhile, the Warriors and Kings played one of the most entertaining series in last year's postseason, with the Warriors taking it in seven games. However, the Kings took three of the four regular-season meetings between these teams, which earned them the right to host this game tonight.

Guard Davion Mitchell has a big assignment tonight on the defensive end, but he may chip in offensively as well.

Let's take a look at my top NBA player props and picks for Tuesday's games.


NBA Player Prop Picks

In the table below, you'll find each of our NBA staff's top player prop picks from today's slate of games. Click on any pick or team logo to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.

Time (ET)Player Prop
7:30 p.m.
7:30 p.m.
10 p.m.
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.

Lakers vs. Pelicans

Tuesday, April 16
7:30 p.m. ET
TNT

LeBron James

Over 35.5 Points + Assists

On Friday night, we backed LeBron James' assists in Memphis, and he finished with just five. On Sunday, he had the game I had in mind, racking up 17 assists against the Pelicans while doubling his assists line and cashing all of his value lines in the process.

LeBron also posted 37 points on Friday and 28 on Sunday. So this time, I'm adding the points for this combo.

James has had 36 combined points and assists in four straight games and in five of his last seven. In that span, he's averaging 39.7 points + assists combined, which is also fitting. He has had 40 or more in four of those games, including 45 on Sunday.

Tonight, he gets the same matchup against the Pelicans, who he has hit this line against in three of his last four games, finishing with 35 in the other.

Given his recent performances, we have room for regression and for LeBron to still go over this line.

However, I don't expect the regression to come in a game of this magnitude. One thing we know for sure is that the ball will be in James' hands a ton as the Lakers' primary facilitator. He'll have plenty of opportunites to score or set up his teammates.

Another factor is that Anthony Davis left Sunday's game with back spasms. He's expected to play tonight, but if he can't go or has to leave the game, even more will be needed from James.

He has already played 35 minutes in nine of his last 10 games, including against the Warriors last Tuesday when he had 33 points and 11 assists.

Pick: LeBron James Over 35.5 Points + Assists (-120)

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Brandon Ingram

Over 18.5 Points

Brandon Ingram returned to the Pelicans' lineup on Sunday after missing 12 games with a left knee bone contusion.

He scored 13 points in 23 minutes, which is a bit of an exception for him. Ingram has played 25 minutes or more in 61 of his 64 games this season, with two exceptions being Sunday's game and when he suffered his knee injury against the Magic and played 21 minutes.

Head coach Willie Green said Ingram is in line for increased minutes following Monday's practice, which is not surprising considering the stakes tonight.

If Ingram is on the floor more tonight, he will likely be scoring, particularly against the Lakers. Ingram averaged 20.8 points per game in the regular season and 21.2 points when playing 25 minutes or more. He has hit this line in 38-of-61 (62%) games this season when playing 25 minutes or more.

Additionally, we have a revenge game angle as Ingram gets the opportunity to play his former team.

Ingram was the centerpiece in the trade that sent Anthony Davis to Los Angeles. Since then, he's averaged 23.5 points in 16 career games against the Lakers.

He has hit this line in 13 of those games and played 25 minutes in all but Sunday's game. Ingram has also scored 25 points in seven of those games and 30 points in three of them. Tonight, we only need 19 points to clear this line.

At FanDuel, you can back him to score 25 points at +350 and 30 points at +1100.

Pick: Brandon Ingram Over 18.5 Points (-108)


Warriors vs. Kings

Tuesday, April 16
10 p.m. ET
TNT

Davion Mitchell

Over 7.5 Points

Since the beginning of February, Davion Mitchell has been shooting 50% from the field and 43% from behind the arc. It's quite a turnaround after he began the season shooting below 40% from the field and below 30% from distance.

Mitchell is the Kings' best on-ball defender, so when he's shooting well to stay on the floor, he can be very impactful for a Kings team that struggles at times at the defensive end.

The improved shooting splits have really paid dividends for Mitchell of late.

He's averaging 9.4 points over his past 10 games — four points above his season average. He has surpassed this projection in eight of those games and scored seven in another. In that span, he's averaging 23.3 minutes per game and played 20 minutes or more in nine of them.

While those trends are great, I also think Mitchell will have to play a lot, as he'll likely be tasked with guarding Stephen Curry.

The Warriors star has had games of 41, 29 and 33 points against the Kings this season. He averaged 33.7 points in last year's first round, including 50 in the decisive Game 7. Mitchell played only eight minutes in that game.

Mitchell has hit this projection in two of his last three games against the Warriors, scoring 13 and 10 points in those games. He may not succeed in shutting Curry down tonight, but if he plays around 25 minutes or so, he should be able to score eight himself.

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Nick Sterling
May 21, 2024 UTC