NBA Player Prop Bets & Picks: Can Jaylen Brown Keep Boston in This Series? (Friday, Sept. 25)
Jesse D. Garrabrant/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Jaylen Brown #7 of the Boston Celtics.
- The Boston Celtics are in a do-or-die spot in Game 5 vs. the Miami Heat. Will the stars show up to keep the Celtics in this series?
- Brandon Anderson breaks down the best player props in tonight’s Eastern Conference finals matchup.
Betting on props can be one of the easiest ways to build your bankroll, especially in the NBA postseason. Sportsbooks tend to offer lower limits and take less action on props than they do on games, so they don’t have as much incentive to post an accurate line.
That’s where our Player Prop tool comes in handy. We compare our industry-leading NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks to identify the best plays each day. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
|Bet Quality Grade||Win-Loss (Win Pct)|
|Bet Quality of 10||775-572 (57%)|
|Bet Quality of 9||942-776 (54%)|
|Bet Quality of 8||1432-1263 (52%)|
Odds as of Friday at 12 p.m. ET
Friday’s player props come from Game 5 of the Eastern Conference finals:
- Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics at 8:30 p.m. ET on ESPN
NBA Player Prop Bets
Miami Heat, Goran Dragic
The Prop: Over 4.5 assists (+125) [DraftKings]
Game 4 will forever be known as the Tyler Herro Game as he electrified the Celtics with 37 points off the bench, the most ever by any rookie not named Magic Johnson this late in the playoffs. The over on Herro’s points prop hit midway through the second quarter of Game 4.
Herro has been coming up bigger and bigger all series.And you have to figure the Celtics have finally noticed by now.
A big part of the Herro play in Game 4 was the Celtics’ change in defense. Early in the series, Goran Dragic had been slicing through the defense and getting to his spot. The Celtics adjusted by putting more ball pressure on Dragic, often using Marcus Smart, and forcing someone else to beat them. That person has been Herro.
Expect an adjustment in the other direction as well as Herro has been playing. That should mean more room for Dragic to operate and more time on the ball, who is already averaging 4.3 assists per game on the series. He dropped to three last game with Herro doing everything, but we’re projecting him to have a series-high six assists tonight, making this an excellent play at plus odds. Go ahead and play to +100.
Check out our new NBA PRO Report, where we highlight factors that provide betting edges — like large wagers, historically profitable betting systems, model projections and expert picks — that when combined with sharp money can powerfully detail the smartest bets on a given slate.
Boston Celtics, Jaylen Brown
The Prop: Over 6.5 rebounds (-106) [FanDuel]
People talked about Brown as the second Celtics star much of the season, but that talk was premature. Kemba Walker and Jayson Tatum were clearly much better than Brown, and I’d argue Gordon Hayward was too. But that has changed in the playoffs with Hayward out and Walker struggling, as Brown looks to be taking the next step.
Over the past seven games, Brown is averaging 23.4 points and 8.1 rebounds per game. He’s doing that in 42.5 minutes, taking on a huge role on both ends as his defense has also stepped up a notch.
The rebounding, in particular, has been huge. Brown has at least six rebounds in all but one of those games. Brown is out there almost all game, and he’s usually the much better athlete in his matchup. The Celtics play smaller than their opponent, even truer with Hayward back now minimizing center minutes for the Celtics, so that means even more rebounding opportunities.
I’ve been playing Brown rebounding overs for a couple rounds now, and he keeps paying off. I’ll play this one to -135.
Boston Celtics, Jaylen Brown
The Prop: Over 20.5 points (+100) [DraftKings]
Why stop at rebounds with Brown? The Celtics need him to score, too, and he’s been doing plenty of that lately as well.
Brown leapt from 13 points per game last season to 20.3 points per game this season. That’s up to 21.1 in the playoffs and 23.4 over these past seven games. Brown is scoring in transition and off cuts, hitting open threes, and scoring well in the flow of the offense as teams focus their attention on Tatum and Walker.
Brown has scored at least 21 points in six of his last seven games. Boston has only six guys they can rely on, so Brown’s minutes won’t let up now in an elimination game. Look for Brown to hit 21 again and play these odds while they’re +EV or up to -115.