The NBA regular season is back in action with a solid 6-game slate this Friday. So, I've locked in picks for five of today's contests, including bets for Knicks vs. Pistons, Heat vs. Celtics, Clippers vs. Kings, and more.
Let's get to my NBA predictions, odds and expert bets for Friday, February 6.
NBA Predictions, Odds, Picks, Expert Bets for Friday, February 6
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Knicks vs. Pistons
Detroit might have peaked a little bit.
The Pistons beat the Nuggets to sweep the season series on Tuesday. They have been leading the East for most of the season.
They lost to the Wizards on Thursday and now are on a back-to-back.
Cade Cunningham was questionable going into Thursday’s game and played, so he’s likely to miss this one, hence why the No. 1 seed is an underdog at home in this spot.
The Pistons are 5-1 ATS this season without Cunningham, which is concerning, but the Knicks have not peaked, not yet.
The Knicks' defense has been lights out for the past two weeks.
However, Detroit has a -1.74 spread differential per Cleaning The Glass against top-10 defenses, which is what the Knicks have been during this stretch.
The Pistons have two weaknesses in their defensive profile: they allow offensive rebounds and they foul.
The Knicks are third in offensive rebound rate thanks to Mitch Robinson being some sort of mythical creature made entirely of OREBs, and they rank third in free throw rate thanks to Jalen Brunson being an S-tier grifter.
The Pistons are a better defensive team, the Knicks are a better offensive team. But right now, the Knicks’ defense is ahead of the Pistons’ offense, especially short-handed on a back-to-back.
I’ll take the Knicks to keep the good times rolling.
Pick: Knicks -1 (-110)
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Heat vs. Celtics
Miami is on rest advantage, and that means the Heat won’t be as tired as normal with their fast-paced system.
Their defense has been better lately; Miami has the 2nd-best defense the last two weeks.
Boston tends to buckle down when things get tight. Nikola Vucevic being on board shouldn’t do much; Vuc is a pro and will work within the scheme if he plays.
Miami has a high level of familiarity with Boston, not that it’s helped them this season against Boston (0-2, losing by nine points per game).
With the recent trends in totals, it’s a good spot to target the under.
- When Boston is on rest disadvantage, the under is 11-3 this season. The defense tightens up; the opponent team total under is 10-4 when they are on rest disadvantage.
- When the total is above their season average in Boston games, the under is 17-7.
- The Celtics are an under team (more under results than overs). When Miami faces those teams, the under is 13-7.
Pick: Under 229.5 (-110)
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Pelicans vs. Timberwolves
The Wolves have gone over four in a row, but they also tend to go under when they face a team under .500 (15-12 to the under).
When the total is above 230 in Wolves games this season, the under is 17-12, and it’s 19-20 in Pelicans games. The under is over .500 on the road, under at home.
The Pelicans attempt the highest percentage of shots at the rim in the league, but of course, the Wolves employ Rudy Gobert, and their rim defense is ranked top-10.
The Wolves force a high number of mid-range attempts, and the Pelicans are worst in the league at mid-range shooting.
New Orleans has no incentive to tank, having sent their first-round pick out, so they’ll compete here. Minnesota should be able to hold their offense down, though.
I’ve got this total projected at 228.
So, I’ll take the under here, as the Wolves offense will likely cool down, and the Pelicans should be able to keep the game close enough to prevent it from getting out of hand.
Pick: Under 236.5 (-110)
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Grizzlies vs. Trail Blazers
Deni Avdija is likely back in this one, as he’s been upgraded to questionable.
Memphis just traded its best player along with two other rotation players, and Ty Jerome is out for injury maintenance after just returning to the lineup.
Scoot Henderson is set to make his season debut in this one, and that gives reason to go the other way.
It’s not that Henderson’s a purely negative player though his career has been difficult so far. But adding a brand new point guard into the mix has complications.
Memphis needs to be the underdog here, but Portland has been wildly inconsistent when it comes to facing bad teams — going 7-7-1 ATS against teams under .500.
I get the idea that Memphis is going to have more of a ragtag crew than normal, but Portland is just not the kind of team that should be laying this many points.
Portland had a hot stretch of play, but the Blazers rank 30th in offense and 23rd in defense over the last two weeks.
The reality is, the Blazers are not very good at anything right now.
That’s enough to beat Memphis, but maybe not by margin. I make this spread Blazers -4.1 after adjusting for the Grizzlies’ trades.
Pick: Grizzlies +7 (-110)
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Clippers vs. Kings
The Clippers just basically tore their entire franchise apart this week.
Darius Garland and Bennedict Mathurin won’t be available while the trade is being finalized. There’s too much upheaval to think it’s a good idea to back this team.
I don’t want to take the Kings; they’re a mess. But I just can’t get to a number where this looks like a Clippers spot.
After adjusting for trades and absences, I make this line Clippers -2.
Maybe John Collins, Kawhi Leonard, and Kris Dunn are enough to make it happen, but the Kings have at least played together for long minutes.
It’s rare that I think it’s a good spot to back the Kings, but with how much has changed for the Clippers, I think this is a bad spot for LAC.
Pick: Kings +3.5 (-110)
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