The NBA Cup is back with an excellent slate of games on Friday night, with a total of nine matchups scheduled for today.
So, I've locked in a total of seven picks spanning four of tonight's contests, including bets for Nuggets vs Rockets, Timberwolves vs Suns, and Thunder vs Jazz.
Let's get to my NBA predictions, odds and expert bets for Friday, November 21.
NBA Predictions, Odds, Picks, Expert Bets: Friday, November 21
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 8:30 p.m. | |
  | 9 p.m. | |
  | 9:30 p.m. | |
  | 10 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Pelicans vs. Mavericks
This is it. We’ve found rock bottom for the Mavericks. They are 2.5-point favorites against the miserable, no-good, fired-their-coach New Orleans Pelicans.
I make this line -5.5 with priors (which were higher on the Pels and lower on the Mavericks) and -6.9 on in-season-only data.
The Mavericks are still a good defensive team in terms of eFG%, second-chance points allowed, etc. They still have bodies on the interior.
The Pelicans struggle offensively in all sorts of situations.
This reeks of a slugfest.
The Cup doesn’t really matter here; both teams are basically out of it with two losses.
It’s possible that James Borrego and Derik Queen’s emergence changes this, but I think this is finally the buy-back spot on a bad Mavericks team.
I love the under, neither team can score effectively.
The Mavs have an offensive advantage (which is so rare), but they are turnover prone.
Pick: Mavericks -2.5, Under 231.5
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Timberwolves vs. Suns
I make this line a pick‘em. Phoenix has been an ATS beast this season.
- Phoenix is 7-1 ATS at home.
- In Cup games, home 'dogs that are above .500 are a stunning 10-5 ATS (67%).
- The market is still influenced by preseason priors that believed the Suns were a sub-35-win team, and they’ve been way better than that.
- The Wolves’ biggest weakness is turnovers, and the Suns are 7th in opponent turnover rate.
- The Wolves are the 2nd-best road offense, but the Suns are the 4th-best home defense.
The Suns have the wing defenders to throw at Anthony Edwards.
They don’t have good matchups for Julius Randle, who should eat in isolation, but they do have centers to battle with Gobert and Naz Reid.
Pick: Suns +3.5
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Nuggets vs. Rockets
This should be an absolute slugfest of a game between two of the West — and the league’s — top three teams.
There are a lot of ways to look at this. Let’s start with basketball sides.
Houston is tied with Denver for the No. 1 offense, schedule-adjusted, at DunksAndThrees.com.
These two teams take the least (Rockets) and fifth-least (Nuggets) 3s per 100 possessions, respectively, while shooting above league average, and in the Rockets’ case, the best 3-point percentage in the league.
This is a battle of the best 3-point shooting team this season by percentage (Houston) vs. the best 3-point defense by percentage (Nuggets).
For what it’s worth, analytics experts believe opponent 3-point shooting is mostly variance.
The Rockets are the No. 1 Offensive Rebounding team, and the Nuggets are the No. 2 Defensive Rebounding team by possession rate.
Denver is a better half-court and transition offense, but the Rockets make up for it with their second-chance opportunities.
Expect to see a lot of bigs in this game.
The Rockets will go to double-big with Steven Adams and Alperen Sengun; Denver can counter with Jonas Valanciunas next to Nikola Jokic.
Alperen Sengun beat Jokic and Serbia in Eurobasket this summer primarily behind his developed ability to hit 3s.
Now for trends:
- Jokic is 6-4 SU against Sengun but 4-5-1 ATS.
- Ime Udoka is 5-2 SU against Jokic in his career, 4–2-1 ATS.
- The Rockets are 7th in free throw rate and play smash ball. When Udoka is a home favorite against a team that averages fewer free throws allowed (so, defensive free throws given up) than Houston averages, the Rockets are 32-21 (64%) ATS.
- The Rockets have led by an average greater than eight points after the third quarter this season. Those teams at home since 2023 as less than a two-possession (>-4.5) favorite are 25-10-1 (74%) ATS.
- The Nuggets are 36-46-1 (44%) ATS on the road as less than four-point 'dogs or favored.
- Home teams over .500 in tournament play are 46-27-2 (63%) ATS.
This is a little bit of a smoke and mirrors game.
The Nuggets’ defense isn’t as good as the stats say. The Rockets’ offense is at what may be its absolute peak this season.
However, Denver is more reliant on 3-point variance.
The Rockets attack the Nuggets’ strength as well as any team. The Nuggets attack the Rockets’ strengths well.
But Houston is at home, motivated, and more healthy in this spot.
Both are technically missing expected starters, but Houston hasn’t needed Dorian Finney-Smith all season long, and Christian Braun is out for the Nuggets.
Sengun can spread Jokic out to the 3-point line where he’s uncomfortable and vulnerable defensively.
Kevin Durant doesn’t have anyone who can guard him — not that anyone can.
Denver’s transition offense is mistake-prone right now, which takes easy points off the board.
I’ll take the Rockets -2.5, over 234.5, and Alperen Sengun over 0.5 3-pointers made.
Pick: Rockets -2.5, Over 234.5, Alperen Sengun Over 0.5 Three Pointers Made
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Thunder vs. Jazz
I make this line 105. The Thunder absolutely clamp down in Cup play.
In 10 tournament games, the Thunder have held the opponent under their team total nine times out of 10 (9-1 to the under).
In the one game the Jazz have played against a top-10 defensive team, the Jazz only scored 102 this season.
Oklahoma City is 22nd in pace on the road this season; they’ll slow the game down.
The Jazz are 25th in halfcourt offense, the Thunder are, predictably, 2nd in halfcourt defense.
- Utah is 16th in transition offense, OKC is 1st in transition defense.
- Utah is 25th in eFG% on offense, OKC is No. 1 in eFG% defense.
Most concerning, the Jazz are 29th in turnover rate.
Ranking 29th in turnover rate is like being “covered in blood” and falling into shark-infested waters.
It’s hard to score when you don’t have the ball because OKC has taken it from you every time.
Pick: Jazz Team Total Under 107.5
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