The NBA Cup is back in full swing with an excellent slate of games on Friday night, with a total of 11 matchups scheduled for today.
So, I've locked in a total of 5 bets for tonight's contests, including bets for Bucks vs Knicks, Kings vs Jazz, and Mavericks vs Lakers.
Let's get to my NBA predictions, odds and expert bets for Friday, November 28.
NBA Predictions, Odds, Picks, Expert Bets: Friday, November 28
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
  | 9:30 p.m. | |
  | 10:00 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Magic vs. Pistons
Orlando has been red hot, but given that the Pistons just had their 13-game winning streak snapped, it’s safe to say so is Detroit, still.
Orlando’s offense, led by a resurgent Desmond Bane and some great play from Anthony Black has made major strides over the past few weeks. But in that span, the Magic have played just one team with a top-10 defensive rating, per Cleaning The Glass. Detroit is fourth.
This is a bounce-back spot for Detroit coming off having their win streak snapped in Boston, and as you’ll see below, that’s a good spot to back the formerly streaking team. This is a letdown spot for the Magic after a blowout win vs. the Sixers.
The game is for the Cup Group Stage, but Orlando is still alive to get in, even with a loss. Their motivation is to keep it close, and winning is obviously better, but from a Cup standpoint, it’s not absolutely necessary.
I make this Pistons -8 based on full-season numbers, which fail to account for how much better the Magic have been. But even with a three-point bump to Orlando, I wind up with room to spare. With preseason priors, I still make this Pistons -5.
Some trends:
- J.B. Bickerstaff off a loss at home since 2021: 42-34-2 (56%) ATS, 11-8 with the Pistons
- Bickerstaff is also 91-64-6 (59%) ATS facing teams coming off a win, including 17-9-2 (65%) when the opponent is coming off a win of more than 20
- Teams coming off a loss after a 10+ game winning streak since 2003: 67-51-3 (57%) ATS
- The Magic under Jamahl Mosley are 10-15-1 (40%) ATS on the road with a rest advantage
Pick: Pistons -2.5
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Cavaliers vs. Hawks
This line is baffling to me. Some trends for context:
- The Hawks lost to the Wizards on Tuesday. Since 2023, when teams have lost to the Wizards, the under is 21-13 (62%) per KillerSports.com in the following game. Do you know why? BECAUSE THE TEAM TAKES A GOOD LOOK IN THE MIRROR AND DECIDES TO GUARD IN THE NEXT GAME BECAUSE THEY LOST TO THE WIZARDS.
- The over is 8-6 in Hawks' games without Trae Young, including their loss to THE WIZARDS. However, the opponent team total is 9-5 to the under in those games. They have guarded the opponent and put up big numbers. But the Cavs’ defense is actually almost as strong as their offense.
These two teams are fast on offense, both top 10 in offensive length of possession per DunksAndThrees.com. But they are both bottom-five in defensive possession length. They get stops, and then they run vs. mismatches. But the Cavaliers are lower in transition rate (13th) than the Hawks, while the Cavaliers are better at defending transition attempts.
I can’t get to any read that says that this should be an offensive slugfest. It’s a two-star play for me on the under.
Pick: Under 236.5
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Bucks vs. Knicks
Giannis Antetokounmpo was upgraded to questionable Wednesday, then ruled out at the last minute. That indicates he’s pretty close to returning from the groin strain. Here are the options for this line:
Knicks -8.5 (Giannis out): You can argue this line is on point; it’s the market line.
Knicks -8.5 (halfway line): This happens when a player might or might not play, and the market is set in the middle, then people bet based on what they think will happen. I have Giannis’ spread value at 6.3, so the halfway market would be 3.1 either way. That means this is 11.5 if he’s out, which is too big, or Knicks -5.5 with Giannis playing, which again, is probably too many.
Knicks -8.5 (Giannis in): No way.
Now, if you think the Knicks should be -8.5 without Giannis, I don’t blame you. The Bucks are 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS without Giannis this season. Additionally, the Knicks are 8-1 at home ATS this season.
But there are a lot of good matchup things here for the Bucks, including the fact that they are 13th in defensive rebound rate, which will keep the Knicks off the glass. The Knicks are just 6-5 SU and ATS this season when the opponent allows fewer than league-average offensive rebounds.
But ultimately, this is a Giannis bet. If he returns Friday, this line sinks like a rock. If he doesn’t, well, I still have this with a few points of value on the Bucks. It’s a one-star, small-unit play but worth the CLV.
Pick: Bucks +8.5
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Kings vs. Jazz
This is mostly just on principle. Both of these teams are truly terrible, with bottom-seven offenses and defenses in the half-court. Even their transition play isn’t great. In fact, there’s nothing these teams do well and very little that gives one team a big edge over the other.
However, I just can’t get to a place where Utah should be favored here.
Sacramento is 4-4 ATS without Domantas Sabonis. The Kings 5-5 this season as road 'dogs, all against better teams than Utah.
Will Hardy is 20-23 (47%) ATS as a home favorite in his career.
I don’t even think Utah is that bad, and I certainly don’t think the Kings are good, but I can't reach a point where Utah should be laying points.
The over is a much safer play here as it doesn’t rely on Sacramento being competent in any aspect.
This season, the average total for Utah games is 236.6, per KillerSports.com. When the total is higher than that in Jazz games, the over is 9-6 (60%). I make this all the way up to 250.
A lot of that is the home trend in Utah. Games in Utah this season have gone over by an average — not total — an AVERAGE of 21 points per game! Six of the nine games have gone over by 20 or more points.
Pick: Kings +1.5, Over 242.5
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Mavericks vs. Lakers
Back to the well with ol’ reliable, Mavericks unders.
The under in Mavs games is 13-6 this season, with their team total going 13-5-1 to the under.
The Lakers are the No.1 over team at home, but quite simply, they’ve never played an offense as bad as Dallas’. When the total is higher than their average total, the under is 9-2 in Mavericks' games this season.
The Lakers’ defense also isn’t terrible; they are 15th, league median, in half-court defense. The Lakers’ strengths match up with Dallas’ strengths.
I don’t mind playing the Mavericks team total alone here, but I also like to give myself some wiggle room if the team I’m fading has a good defense, which Dallas does. I project this all the way down to 222. I will keep fading Dallas’ offense until the market adjusts.
Pick: Under 230.5
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