The NBA regular season is back in action with a stacked slate of games on Monday night, with a total of eight matchups scheduled for today.
So, I've locked in picks for four of tonight's contests, including bets for Nuggets vs 76ers, Hornets vs Thunder, Warriors vs Clippers, and more.
Let's get to my NBA predictions, odds and expert bets for Monday, January 5.
NBA Predictions, Odds, Picks, Expert Bets for Monday, January 5
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Hornets vs. Thunder
The under is 3-2 in the games following OKC's loses this season, with a 4.5-point per-game edge. The Thunder get mad, they defend their faces off, and they win.
The Hornets are missing Ryan Kalkbrenner in their frontcourt, making this an easier spot for OKC to keep them off the boards, though Moussa Diabate is probable.
If you remove the edge OKC surrenders on the glass, teams have a hard time scoring on them.
I make this total 231.5, so it’s not a big play, but I do think OKC bounces back and beats up on Charlotte, who is awful with rest advantage this season.
You can also just play the Hornets team total under if you prefer.
Pick: Under 234.5
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Nuggets vs. 76ers
Joel Embiid overs. All of them. Everything.
I may have also played 40+ points and 15+ rebounds at FanDuel…
The Nuggets' entire starting lineup is either injured or resting tonight against the Sixers.
You are going to see one of the worst mismatches you may ever see. Both Nikola Jokic and Jonas Valancinuas are injured.
Embiid may sit, this one might be too easy for him. But if he does play, he’s going to annihilate Denver.
Embiid loves to destroy mismatches, the way most stars do. You play so many games where teams are physical with you, throwing different looks at you, every game is a new challenge, that when you just get to have a fun night at the office showing off, it’s pretty fun.
Embiid’s career high came against Victor Wembanyama in his rookie season — and while some of that might have been him giving Vic a “Welcome To The League” moment, a lot of it was that Wembanyama was not physically strong enough to hold up against him and Embiid bumped him five feet under the basket every time.
Tonight, Embiid will face DaRon Holmes, all 6'9" and 225 pounds of him, and then Zeke Nnaji, who stands 6'10" and 240 pounds. Neither one have a prayer against him.
The Nuggets are also switching everything defensively because neither of those guys can play drop coverage in pick-and-roll, which means teams just switch the big onto perimeter players and then grab rebound after rebound.
His minutes are up above 30 in the last week. This is also personal. Embiid took endless crap from media for missing games in Denver for rest or injury management (admittedly, sometimes unfairly from yours truly), and now gets to make a point about Jokic being injured and him annihilating Denver.
Embiid doesn’t have anything to prove against this Denver team, but it will be fun to do it anyway.
Pick: Joel Embiid Overs
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Jazz vs. Trail Blazers
This is all about the Jazz. Utah has been very careful with its health and resting patterns.
When the Jazz face a team that will definitely beat them, they play everyone and lose. When they face a team that is not very good, they rest guys selectively and lose.
For example, Svi Mykhailiuk is one of the most impactful players on the Jazz in terms of Utah winning his minutes, or at least losing his minutes by less. They are seven points worse per 100 possessions without him. He’s had two DNP-CDs in the last two weeks, once against a good Boston team and another against a bad Mavericks team.
Jusuf Nurkic is questionable.
The Jazz are good vs. teams under .500 this season, but bad on the road. They are 3-3 ATS vs. teams with a win percentage below 45%, but -3.7 in spread differential.
This is a valuable loss in Utah’s tanking efforts. So, I’ll take the Blazers to win, and I don’t mind the idea of playing alternate lines either.
Pick: Trail Blazers -6.5
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Warriors vs. Clippers
The Warriors are 9-5 to the Over after the previous game went under this season.
Basically, they don’t have the legs to be able to defend well enough in back-to-back games, and they bounce back offensively from bad performances.
I make this total 227, so not a huge edge, but I do lean over on the handicap based on the Clippers’ recent offensive surge and the Warriors’ 13-7 Over mark on the road this season.
Kawhi Leonard has been a house on fire and should go off again, and both teams will look to run to avoid the other’s halfcourt defense.
Pick: Over 225
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