The NBA regular season is back with an excellent slate of games on Monday night, with a total of eight matchups scheduled for today.
So, I've locked in picks for four of tonight's contests, including bets for Clippers vs 76ers, Bucks vs Cavaliers, and Hornets vs Raptors.
Let's get to my NBA predictions, odds and expert bets for Monday, November 17.
NBA Predictions, Odds, Picks, Expert Bets: Monday, November 17
  |   |   |   |
Clippers vs. 76ers
This total has sunk like a stone because Joel Embiid and Paul George are expected to be back and playing.
Let’s look at the Embiid side.
Since the start of last season, when this concoction was theoretically put together, the over is 14-9-2 when Embiid plays, per KillerSports.com.
When Embiid and PG played together last year, the over was 9-7-2.
With Embiid, the Sixers’ pace hasn’t dipped meaningfully.
These two teams are still meaningfully slower than average, which is a problem, but their offenses are better than their defense.
Philly is top-10 in both fastbreak points per 100 possessions and fastbreak points allowed per 100 possessions (where they are dead last).
If the Clippers, who are going to be shorthanded, run at all, they will score.
The Clippers have a high foul rate, which Philly can take advantage of.
I make this line 232.5 on full-season numbers.
Even if you downgrade it for Embiid and PG coming back, I can’t make up the difference.
Pick: Over 220.5
| | | |
Bucks vs. Cavaliers
Look, I don’t know why, but Cleveland just hasn’t been right.
It’s not injuries: with Evan Mobley and Donovan Mitchell in the lineup, the Cavs are 4-8 ATS this season.
The Bucks are shooting the lights out right now, No. 1 in effective field goal percentage, shooting 73 percent at the rim and 49 percent from the corners.
That won’t hold over the long haul, but they’re facing a Cavs team that ranks 19th in opponent eFG%.
Under Atkinson, the Cavaliers are just 5-5 in division games.
That may not sound like a meaningful stat, but these are typically competitive games in this division, in particular, with a small travel slate.
The Cavs fall outside the top-10 in halfcourt offense and defense, as well as transition offense and defense.
The only statistical category outside of overall offense and schedule-adjusted defense is that they’re really great when it comes to turnover rate.
I make this Cavs -5.1 with preseason priors baked in; -2.1 based on in-season numbers.
Milwaukee is coming off a blowout loss at home to the Lakers.
I like the spot, I like the number, I like the matchup.
Pick: Bucks +6.5
Hornets vs. Raptors
I may be walking into a trap.
No major injury news.
No major matchup advantage for Charlotte.
And this spread is single-digits?
I make this Raptors -10.5 with preseason priors and -14.5 in-season.
This is the 5th-best halfcourt offense (Toronto) against the No. 30 halfcourt defense.
Teams playing a 3rd game in four nights like the Hornets tonight are 46% in Toronto since 2003, and 2-7 since 2020-21.
In losses this season, the average margin of loss on the road for the Hornets is 13.7.
Toronto’s margin of victory when they win at home this season is 20.7.
I have zero idea why this line is only Raptors -8, and I am happy to walk into the trap.
Pick: Raptors -8
Mavericks vs. Timberwolves
This has jumped up four points from open, and I think it’s a great buyback spot the other way.
Dallas is the worst half-court offense in the league, and Minnesota is still stout defensively.
The Mavericks are 4-0 to the under on their team total on the road this season.
Under Chris Finch, when opponents are on a third-in-four-nights spot and the Wolves are home favorites, the under is 17-9.
The one weakness for the Wolves defensively is that you can score on them in the pick-and-roll because they’re built to allow individually scoring while staying home on shooters.
Unfortunately, the Mavericks rank 24th in pull-up jumpers, the best way to punish the Wolves’ drop coverage.
Minnesota’s offense is shaky, but the Mavs’ offense is a constant earthquake.
Pick: Under 231.5
| | | |
