It’s a full slate in the NBA on Tuesday and I’ve got plays all over the board, from backing tanking teams trying to lose as many games as possible, overs on teams missing their stars, and a few road team ATS plays.
Here’s the way to consider these picks using my star system.
- ⭐️⭐️⭐️: 0.55 unit play
- ⭐️⭐️: 0.25 unit play
- ⭐️: 0.1 unit play
Let's get to my NBA predictions, picks and expert bets for Tuesday, Feb. 24.
NBA Predictions, Picks for Tuesday, Feb. 24
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Timberwolves vs. Trail Blazers
Tuesday, Feb. 24
10 p.m. ET
Peacock
Over 236 (-110)
Over 236 (⭐️⭐️⭐️)
- I project this total at 242.
- The identity of these teams in the market doesn’t match reality:
- The Wolves have the 11th-ranked defense, which is worse than in previous years. Their defense is good, not great.
- The Blazers have a reputation as a great defensive team… but they’re not. They’re actually 17th in defensive rating.
- They are also faster than you’d think:
- The Wolves are 8th in pace, the Blazers are 7th.
- Trends back this as well:
- The over is 18-9 in Wolves road games this season.
- The over is 19-11 in Blazers home games this season.
- The average total for Blazers games is 232.5. When the total is above that mark, the over is 21-9 this season.
- Deni Avdija, Portland’s best offensive player is out, but the over is still 9-8 when Avdija misses the game.
- Avdija is getting closer to missing the 65-game mark for awards, which is why his MIP odds have fallen over the last week. Jalen Johnson is the new favorite.
Pick: Over 236 (-110)
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Celtics vs. Suns
Tuesday, Feb. 24
9 p.m. ET
NBA League Pass
Celtics -6.5 (-115)
Celtics -6.5 (⭐️⭐️)
- I project this spread at Celtics -7.2.
- The Suns are without Devin Booker and Dillon Brooks.
- The Suns are 5-9 ATS without Booker this season, though they are 4-4 as 'dogs.
- The Suns are 4-4 without Brooks; I actually don’t think Brooks moves the line that much from a statistical standpoint, but not having your emotional leader is tough.
- Boston has been great on the road this year, 19-10 ATS.
- Phoenix is 18-12 ATS at home, 8-4 as a home 'dog, but have lost and failed to cover their last two in that spot.
- Most importantly, the Suns are 2-7 as home 'dogs without Booker.
- The Suns rank 2nd in the league in forcing turnovers. It’s essential to their offense. Boston ranks 1st in offensive turnover percentage; they hardly ever lose the ball.
- Without that offensive boost off turnovers, I’m not sure the Suns can keep up with Boston’s offense.
- Phoenix has defensive rebound problems; the Suns rank 28th in opponent offensive rebound percentage. Boston is bizarre because they also struggle on the defensive glass (15th, up from bottom-10 most of the year), but are terrific at second-chance points (5th).
- Between turnovers and rebounds, the Celtics are likely to win the possession game, which makes execution and shooting the key factors in this matchup, and Phoenix is unlikely to hold up without Booker under those conditions.
Pick: Celtics -6.5 (-115)
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Warriors vs. Pelicans
Tuesday, Feb. 24
8 p.m. ET
NBA League Pass
Over 227.5 (-110)
Over 227.5 (⭐️⭐️)
- I project this total at 231.
- The Warriors have the 7th-highest over rate on the road; the Pelicans are 5th-highest at home.
- The Pelicans pace is up by 1.2 possessions at home; the Warriors pace is up by 1.2 possessions on the road.
- Overall efficiency drops for the Warriors on the road offensively, but that’s compensated by the fact that they allow more transition opportunities.
- The Pelicans are 13th in points per play added in transition when at home. They’ll run more.
- The biggest factor, though? The Pelicans give up the 2nd-highest percentage of 3-point attempts in the league, at a whopping 45 percent of all shots surrendered.
- The Warriors rank first in the league in 3-point rate, taking over 50 percent of their shots from long range.
- The Pelicans allow the 10th-lowest percentage, but that’s usually luck with a team like New Orleans more-or-less, and the Warriors are figuring out how to play without Steph Curry offensively.
Pick: Over 227.5 (-110)
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Heat vs. Bucks
Tuesday, Feb. 24
8 p.m. ET
NBA League Pass
Heat -6 (-110)
Heat -6 (⭐️⭐️)
- I make this line Heat -8.4.
- Milwaukee has been better lately. The Bucks are heating up a little bit, but so is Miami.
- Miami is 3rd in ATS performance on the road; the Bucks are 23rd at home.
- The Heat run a lot and aren’t efficient in transition. The Bucks allow a fair amount of transition and defend it well (6th).
- But, Miami’s halfcourt offense is 13th and the Bucks’ halfcourt defense is 27th.
- The Bucks are an awesome shooting team, still, even with Giannis out, but Miami is elite when it comes to defending shooting efficiency.
- Milwaukee adding Cam Thomas has mattered, but the Bucks are still 3-2 SU and ATS with Thomas.
- The Bucks are 4-10 SU and ATS against teams with a positive point differential without Giannis Antetokounmpo this season; Miami is +3.1 on the season.
Pick: Heat -6 (-110)
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Wizards vs. Hawks
Tuesday, Feb. 24
7:30 p.m. ET
NBA League Pass
Wizards +13.5 (-115)
Wizards +13.5 (⭐️)
- I project this spread at Wizards +5.4.
- I reject this line on principle. The Hawks should not be -12.5 vs. anyone.
- I get it, the Wizards are 13-19 as double-digit 'dogs this season and tanking their faces off. I get it.
- But, Washington is 5-3 when tagged as a double-digit 'dog against teams under .500. You have to actually be that good to cover the big spreads against the Wizards.
- The Hawks were double-digit favorites vs. the Wizards in November…. and lost outright.
- This is not that same Wizards team, I understand — but still, I cannot get there on this spread.
- Jonathan Kuminga is expected to play in this game. I have him worth -1.2 points to the spread this season based on EPM with the Warriors.
- The Hawks are 10-17 ATS at home this season, and an incredible 3-10 ATS as home favorites.
- I do not want to bet the Wizards, a team that does not want to win this game, but there is no way that this line makes sense.
Pick: Wizards +13.5 (-115)
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