NBA PrizePicks Player Prop Picks: Buy Gabe Vincent, Fade Tyrese Maxey in Heat vs. 76ers Game 6 (Thursday, May 12)

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Here’s how I would approach today’s slate in NBA Playoffs slate.

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Tyrese Maxey Under 18.5 Points

Tyrese Maxey has had a brilliant playoff run for the 76ers. He's been the ultimate X factor this series and a bellwether for Philadelphia success. When Maxey gets out in transition and gets hot as a scorer, the Sixers can look really good and even, at times, unbeatable.

It's probably no surprise, then, that Maxey had his worst game of the series in that ugly Game 5 no-show by the Sixers. Maxey scored only nine points and had a single assist, barely making his imprint on the game. It's no coincidence that the Sixers struggled to score so much.

It was no coincidence that Maxey's scoring was down, either. Miami switched its defense and put Jimmy Butler on Maxey. Butler is a tenacious defender, and his size and physicality took Maxey mostly out of the game as a scorer, muting him and the Philly attack. The Sixers devolved into one-on-one isolations and had only 14 assists all game.

Maxey is under 18.5 points each of the last two games, and he has two other games this series with 19 and 21 points, just one bucket from an under. With Butler on him now, the under is the smart play. Philadelphia will have to find some extra offense elsewhere.

Gabe Vincent Over 14.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists

Kyle Lowry is officially out again for Game 6, and that might actually be better news for Miami at this point than it is for Philadelphia. Lowry is a stud, an All-Star, and a champion, but he was clearly not himself for the two games he played in this series, and he was holding this team back while on the court.

With Lowry out, Gabe Vincent has filled in quite admirably in his place. Vincent is no stranger to big time basketball even if this is his first real playoff run, after playing for the Nigerian Olympic team just last summer and having a role in that win over Team USA.

Now Vincent is showing out in the NBA playoffs. He has been unspectacular but steady starting in Lowry's place this series. In three games without Lowry, he's averaging 10.7 points, 3.7 rebounds, and 2.7 assists. He's scored double-digit points twice, hit a 3-pointer in every start, and gone over this PRA line in two of the three games.

Vincent is averaging 17.0 PRA per start this series when Lowry sits, so this line is a nice discount. Take the over and trust Heat Culture to come through as Vincent fills in for Lowry once again.

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