Wednesday NBA Props: How to Bet Pascal Siakam’s Rebounds, Daniel Theis’ Assists, More
David Sherman/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Pascal Siakam
- Brandon Anderson highlights the three best NBA props for Wednesday, featuring angles on Pascal Siakam's rebounds and Daniel Theis' assists.
- Find out how he's betting both players props ahead of tip-off below.
Betting on props can be one of the easiest ways to build your bankroll. Sportsbooks tend to offer lower limits and take less action on props than they do on games, so they don’t have as much incentive to post an accurate line.
That’s where our Player Prop tool comes in handy. We compare our industry-leading NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks to identify the best plays each day. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
How about a little reminder on just how impressively these bets did last season? Props with a Bet Quality of 10 posted a win rate of 60.31%, and props with a Bet Quality of nine won at a 58.82% clip.
As is the case with most sports, betting on unders proved to be more profitable than betting on overs last season:
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 10: 341-172 (66.47%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 9: 457-273 (62.6%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 8: 898-589 (60.39%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 7: 1447-1086 (57.13%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 6: 1992-1663 (54.95%)
Overall, if you just blind bet every under with a Bet Quality of eight or higher, you would’ve won at a 62.1% clip on more than 2,700 bets.
Wednesday’s props involve the following three games:
- Philadelphia 76ers at Washington Wizards: 4 p.m. ET on NBA TV
- Toronto Raptors at Orlando Magic: 8 p.m. ET
- Brooklyn Nets at Boston Celtics: 9 p.m. ET on ESPN
Let’s dive in.
Best NBA Props for Wednesday
Odds as of noon ET on Wednesday and via various legal sportsbooks. Check out reviews for the best ones here.
76ers C Joel Embiid
THE PICK: Over 2.5 Assists (-180) [BET NOW]
This is a strange line. Embiid has averaged 3.2, 3.7, and 3.2 assists over the past three seasons, so why isn’t this number at least 3.0? It’s probably because the Sixers are double-digit favorites against the Wizards, so the oddsmakers are expecting Philadelphia to win easily and thus, perhaps, limit Embiid’s minutes some.
But Embiid’s assist rate has been steady over three seasons. That 3.7 bump was basically because he also played 3.4 minutes per game more. At Embiid’s usual assists per-minute rate, he’d only need to play 23.7 minutes to get to 2.5 assists.
But that’s not even what makes this bet so nice.
The Sixers rejiggered their lineup heading into the bubble, starting Shake Milton and putting Ben Simmons at power forward. It’s becoming clear that that change also streams more of the offense through Embiid as a hub, and he’s averaged 32.7 points, 14.7 rebounds and 4.0 assists in three games so far, going over 2.5 assists in all three. He should clear that number again, even if his minutes drop some.
Grab Embiid before that number jumps to 3.0, anywhere up to -190.
Celtics C Daniel Theis
THE PICK: Over 1.5 Assists (+155) [BET NOW]
If this bet looks familiar, it’s because we just cashed in on it yesterday. Does Vegas just not care about the Boston big man? Theis does the little things for the Celtics, which typically means tough screens and rebounds, but he’s increasingly showing off his passing skills and hitting cutters.
Theis had two assists yesterday, and he had three in five straight games before that. This is a line that aligns with Theis’s season number (1.7 assists per game) but doesn’t match recent trends, where Theis has gone over 1.5 assists in nine of his last 11 games out.
And, like yesterday, we are getting odds here for some reason.
I triple-bet this one at plus odds yesterday for a big win, and I’d do the same. Grab it before the odds drop, and play it at any plus number for sure.
Raptors PF Pascal Siakam
THE PICK: Over 6.5 Rebounds (-144) [BET NOW]
As much as Siakam has improved over the last few years, his rebounding rate has remained steadily right around 7.7 rebounds per 36 minutes. At that rate, he’d need to play 30.4 minutes to hit this number, and he’s averaging 35.5 minutes per game this season and has gone over that in both bubble games.
Siakam has gone over 6.5 rebounds in six of his last eight and in 58% of his games this season. This is not quite as strong a play as the two above, though, because the game against Orlando will likely be pretty slow paced, and Toronto could end up winning easily enough to cut into Siakam’s minutes.
I still like the bet, but I wouldn’t push it too far past -155 or it eats into the odds too far.