The Spurs and Thunder matching up is the first time teams with 60+ wins are facing off in a series in nine years. They looked the part in Game 1 as they played an all-time classic that the Spurs pulled out a 122-115 double overtime victory behind a remarkable performance from Victor Wembanyama. They were able to steal Game 1 without De'Aaron Fox, and he is questionable for Game 2.
Jalen Williams returned in Game 1 for the Thunder, and Ajay Mitchell had a minimal impact. If Fox returns tonight, Dylan Harper may see a similar fate.
Let's get into my NBA Same Game Parlay Strategy Guide for Wednesday, May 20.
NBA Same Game Parlay Strategy Guide for Thunder vs Spurs Game 2
The Angle: Williams & Fox Return, Mitchell & Harper Regress
Jalen Williams Over 17.5 Points
Williams has had a disjointed season because of injuries. However, of the last 10 games he has played in, he has scored 18 points in seven of them while averaging 17.5 per game. That includes each of the three playoff games he has played this year. He scored 22 and 26 points in two games and likely would have gone over 20 points in the third, as he had 19 points in the third.
In last year's postseason run, Williams averaged 21.4 points per game and cleared this line in 16 of 23. He did his best work at home, most notably in Game 5 of the NBA Finals when he dropped 40 points. Since the start of last year's playoff run, Williams has scored 16 in each of his last 16 home playoff games while averaging 21.6 per game.
With his Game 1 performance, Williams has scored 20 points in four of his last seven games against the Spurs. If the Spurs keep Shai Gilgeous-Alexander under 30 points, the Thunder will need Williams to step up once again.
Pick: Jalen Williams Over 17.5 Points
The Correlated SGP: Mitchell, Fox & Harper Props
Ajay Mitchell Under 12.5 Points
When Williams went down in Game 2 against Phoenix, Mitchell picked up the slack in the second half and finished with 14 points. He would go on to score 15 points in six straight games while scoring 20 points in four of them. That streak came to a screeching halt when he scored four points on Monday.
The Spurs certainly present a tougher defensive matchup than the Suns or Lakers, but the bigger factor was Williams returning to the lineup. Without him, Mitchell averaged 16.2 points per game while scoring 13 points in 27 of 35 (77%) games. With Williams in the lineup, the hit rate drops to 45%, and Mitchell averages 11.7 points per game.
While he did play 33 minutes in Game 1, he took just five shots and had a seven percent usage rate. His usage rate drops nearly eight percent when Williams plays. If that continues, he will not score 13 points tonight.
Pick: Ajay Mitchell Under 12.5 Points
De'Aaron Fox 15+ Points
Fox has appeared on the injury report multiple times this postseason because of a sore right ankle. He gutted through Game 6 against Minnesota when he scored 21 points in 24 minutes in the closeout game, but it was bad enough on Monday that the Spurs decided to hold him out.
Some may suggest holding him in Game 2 because the Spurs have taken home-court advantage with three of the next five possible games in San Antonio. However, extending a series against a team like the Thunder is not wise, and I expect the Spurs to get greedy tonight and try to go for a 2-0 lead.
With that in mind, I expect Fox to play tonight, and he was present at shootaround this morning. If he does go, we are getting tremendous value on his points tonight.
While Fox's scoring numbers are not as prolific as they were in Sacramento, he still averaged 18.5 points a game in the regular season, and he is at 18.8 points in the playoffs. He will comfortably clear this line with 18-19 points tonight.
Fox has scored 15 points in two-thirds of his games this season, but in 10 of 11 playoff games. Despite the great Thunder defense, he has scored 15 points in eight of his last 11 games against them while scoring 20.8 per game.
Additionally, Stephon Castle and Harper played on Monday, and the Spurs' offense did stagnate down the stretch and commit a few turnovers. Fox, the veteran and a former Clutch Player of the Year, may be the one with the ball in his hands in those spots tonight.
Pick: De'Aaron Fox 15+ Points
Dylan Harper Under 13.5 Points
In Game 1, Harper had 24 points, 11 rebounds, six assists, and seven steals. He set a rookie record for steals in a conference finals game, and he is the first player, period, to post a 20/10/5/5 stat line since Larry Bird. His performance on Monday was another example of him proving to be a playoff riser already, as he averaged 11.6 points in the regular season and is averaging 14.6 points in the playoffs.
However, two of his signature performances, Monday and Game 3 at Portland, came while one of Wembanyama or Fox was out. By now, it is safe to say that Harper is already one of the Spurs' four best players (and there is a case to be made for a higher ranking), but there is still only one ball to go around.
In nine games without Fox this season, Harper is averaging 13.9 points and 11.3 field goal attempts on a 24.4 usage rate. When he plays with Fox, he averages two fewer points, two fewer field goal attempts, and his usage rate drops over three percent. While the drop-off may not be huge, it is enough to drop the hit rate from 56% to 38%.
Harper has earned himself more opportunities with how he has played this postseason, but it will still be more difficult for him to clear his lines if Fox plays. He has scored 14 points in just two of his last five games with Fox in the lineup.
Pick: Dylan Harper Under 13.5 Points
Same Game Parlay Building Blocks (+691)
- Jalen Williams Over 17.5 Points
- Ajay Mitchell Under 12.5 Points
- De'Aaron Fox 15+ Points
- Dylan Harper Under 13.5 Points
Compounding Angle (+1591)
- Jalen Williams 20+ Points
- Ajay Mitchell Under 10.5 Points
- De'Aaron Fox 18+ Points
- Dylan Harper Under 13.5 Points
