The San Antonio Spurs (1-0) and Oklahoma City Thunder (0-1) will square off in Game 2 of the NBA Western Conference Finals tonight. Tipoff is set for 8:30 p.m. ET from the Paycom Center in Oklahoma City. The game will broadcast live on NBC and Peacock.
The Thunder are 6.5-point favorites over the Spurs on the spread (Thunder -6.5), with the over/under set at 216.5 total points. Oklahoma City is a -238 favorite to win outright on the moneyline, while San Antonio is priced as a +200 underdog to pull off the upset.
Oklahoma City forced double-overtime in Game 1 despite so many things going wrong for them. However, it was only one game, and the Thunder have a chance to reset the narrative in Game 2 tonight.
Will OKC respond and dominate the bounce-back spot like the past? Or will San Antonio shock everyone and take a two-game lead over the defending champs? Let's get to my Spurs vs. Thunder Game 2 predictions and NBA picks for Wednesday, May 20.
Spurs vs Thunder Prediction
- Spurs vs Thunder pick: Spurs Team Total Under 104.5 (-105)
My Thunder vs. Spurs Game 2 best bet is on San Antonio to score less than 104.5 points in tonight's matchup. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NBA odds page.
Spurs vs Thunder Odds for Game 2
| Spurs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -110 | 216.5 -108o / -112u | +195 |
| Thunder Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -110 | 216.5 -108o / -112u | -238 |
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Spurs vs Thunder NBA Western Conference Finals Game 2 Preview
San Antonio Spurs Betting Preview, Analysis
The entire basketball world stood in shock Monday night as Victor Wembanyama arrived at a new level. His performance raised the idea that he is, at age 22, the best player on the planet, that OKC is helpless against him, and that the league essentially belongs to him for the next decade—and all of those claims have merit.
Looking ahead to the Spurs' lineup dynamics for Game 2, De’Aaron Fox is expected to play in this game. His return alters the backcourt distribution considerably. While Stephon Castle had an impressive 11 assists in Game 1, he also turned the ball over 11 times. Similarly, Dylan Harper scored 24 points and notched seven steals, but he also made a lot of late-game defensive mistakes.
Fox’s presence should make the Spurs' offense settle down a bit, but maybe playing with chaos and fire is actually the best approach when facing OKC. On the other hand, Fox got downhill consistently in the regular season versus the Thunder, and San Antonio won the minutes with Fox on the floor by a wide margin.
Oklahoma City Thunder Betting Preview, Analysis
I’m not betting the spread in Game 2 because I’m simply too freaked out by Wembanyama. But if you are playing the margin, this has to be a “Thunder or nothing” spot. The historical trends heavily favor a big response from Oklahoma City:
- OKC off a loss the last three postseasons: 8-2 SU, 7-3 ATS, with a +7.0 spread differential.
- Home favorites in Game 2 off a Game 1 loss: 38-15 SU, 29-23-1 (56%) ATS, with a +3.9 spread differential.
- No. 1 seeds off a loss in Game 2 as a home favorite: 28-7 SU, 22-13 ATS (63%), with a +3.3 spread differential.
We saw this same script play out last year: OKC lost Game 1 to the Nuggets and responded by winning Game 2 by 43 points. They also lost Game 1 to the Pacers last year, only to bounce back and win Game 2 by 16.
If we get away from the specific matchup, the Wemby factor, and the immediate player dynamics, this is a Thunder spot, plain and simple. You bet OKC and live with the long-term results. But the particulars of how Game 1 ended make this trend environment terrifying.
Consider this: home favorites coming off an overtime Game 1 loss are just 3-6 SU and a miserable 0-9 ATS. If a team loses at home after executing well enough to force overtime, it historically works out badly in the following game.
Furthermore, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will continue to struggle, I think. The Spurs have shown so many ways to disrupt him by having Wembanyama wall off the lower third of the floor. Expect OKC to run more back-screens to open up their corner shooters, but that strategy still relies on the Thunder hitting outside shots, which can get dicey.
I’m also expecting a lot less Isaiah Hartenstein in this game. OKC needs to utilize their small-ball units, and I won’t be surprised if they dust off Kenrich Williams or use more Jaylin Williams.
On the other side, the Thunder have no choice but to live with the Luke Kornet minutes when Wembanyama sits, as they don’t have a viable small-ball center or an alternate big. San Antonio can counter by playing Harrison Barnes in a small-ball look of their own, though that comes with immediate rebounding issues versus Holmgren.
Ultimately, the Thunder should win this game. They’re simply too good to go down 0-2. But that’s just what history and rational sense say—and Wembanyama is breaking both of those things.
Spurs vs Thunder Picks, Betting Analysis
Spurs Team Total Under 104.5 (-105)
In the Thunder's last two postseasons, whenever they lose a game, their opponent has gone under their team total in the next game in eight of those 10 matchups, going under by an average of 7.5 points per game.
The Thunder will likely find ways to slow down the at-rim attacks of Harper and Castle, while displaying much better defensive discipline on Devin Vassell and Keldon Johnson. While I still expect Julian Champagnie to get his three-point attempts, OKC will likely get better contests on them.
While I’m skeptical of anything working against Wembanyama, pushing him out further and being physical earlier with him is a tried-and-true method against every great big man. In Game 1, Wembanyama went 5-of-5 versus Jalen Williams, 4-of-5 versus Alex Caruso—despite Caruso’s freedom to suplex big men whenever he wants—and 6-of-12 versus Chet Holmgren.
However, Wemby was just 1-of-2 when guarded by Lu Dort. While he did get to the line for four free throws, at least the Thunder made him earn it. OKC went to this matchup a lot late in the game, and most of Wemby’s late-game scoring occurred in chaos mid-transition. I’m expecting Dort to rough Wemby up in Game 2, so don’t be surprised if we see some extracurricular activity.
OKC also tends to force far more turnovers after losses, creating more turnovers than in the previous game in seven of their 10 games coming off a loss in the last two postseasons. They’ll dig harder, dig more often, and force more steals. The Spurs can’t throw lobs to Wemby if they don’t have the ball. I’ll stay away from the combined full-game total, though.
I expect OKC to create more turnovers, but they scored with disastrously low efficiency off steals in Game 1 thanks to great transition defense from the Spurs—a trait that is highly repeatable given the Spurs’ youth and athleticism.
Julian Champagnie Over 2.5 Three-Pointers Made (+140)
I like some three-point over props for the Spurs despite backing their team total under.
Champagnie attempted 11 three-pointers in Game 1, and if you have followed the Thunder's defensive scheme, the guys they choose to let shoot are the guys they keep letting shoot. They did the exact same thing to Rui Hachimura in Round 2, and he just kept cashing his overs.
Champagnie will continue to get clean corner looks and benefit from the Spurs' quick actions while Wembanyama is handling the ball on the perimeter, right as the defense starts to panic.
Stephon Castle Over 1.5 Three-Pointers Made (+100)
Fox being back is the big part of this handicap.
With Fox on the floor in the playoffs, Castle’s 3-point rate and 3-point percentage both go up by about four percentage points. That might not seem like a massive jump on paper, but it is.
With Fox initiating the offense, Castle will inherit far more spot-up opportunities while carrying much less on-ball responsibility.
Ajay Mitchell Over 13.5 Points & Assists (-112)
Mitchell played 14:30 out of 24 minutes in the second half of Game 1, and while he didn’t get many direct scoring chances, he did tally three assists.
With expected adjustments coming from the OKC offense and the high likelihood of late-game garbage time if the Thunder punch them in the mouth early, Mitchell should cruise over this 14.5 threshold.
Alex Caruso Over 2.5 Three-Pointers Made (+125)
Caruso's wild 31-point offensive performance in Game 1 was not an accident. Both of these defensive units structurally give up a high rate of corner threes, and these are exactly the types of shooters who take them.
Caruso will continue to be put in prime positions to make big shots because of the sheer amount of defensive attention that Shai draws—and he'll continue to hit them because the guy is absolutely stone cold in big moments.
Chet Holmgren Over 1.5 Three-Pointers Made (+135)
Yet another three-point bet here, because Holmgren operates as a high-volume corner shooter for the OKC offense. He hit two triples in Game 1 and will be highly motivated to get some respect back in this matchup.
Holmgren really struggles to score when facing Wemby, but he can still find ways to contribute. His three-point shot is a great tool to space out Wembanyama and make him think twice about leaving the paint, which should help open up driving lanes for SGA.
Matt Moore's Spurs vs Thunder Game 2 Best Bets
- Spurs Team Total Under 104.5 (-105)
- Julian Champagnie Over 2.5 Three-Pointers Made (+140)
- Stephon Castle Over 1.5 Three-Pointers Made (+100)
- Ajay Mitchell Over 13.5 Points & Assists (-112)
- Alex Caruso Over 2.5 Three-Pointers Made (+125)
- Chet Holmgren Over 1.5 Three-Pointers Made (+135)
