The NBA playoffs resume with a pair of Game 1s tonight, Tuesday, May 6 — and our NBA betting expert Brandon Anderson has locked in picks for both of today's matchups: Cavaliers vs. Pistons and Lakers vs. Thunder.
Continue below for our NBA spread & moneyline picks for Tuesday's playoff games.
NBA Spread & Moneyline Picks: Friday, May 1
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7 p.m. | |
  | 8:30 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Cavaliers vs. Pistons Moneyline & Prop Picks
Cavaliers Moneyline
I’m taking the Cavaliers Moneyline at +141 in Game 1. This is purely a numbers play. If we agree that these teams are basically equal—which the market suggests with a razor-thin spread—then you shouldn't be giving me +141 on the road team. My model has this priced closer to +134, giving us a healthy seven cents of value on Cleveland to steal home court immediately.
The primary driver here is the "Game 1 Fade" of JB Bickerstaff. The data is ugly: Bickerstaff is 1-5 against the spread in Game 1s throughout his career. Historically, his teams do not start fast, and they certainly don't cover.
While the Pistons are currently a 2.5-point favorite, I’m following the "Matt Mitchell Rule"—if you think they cover, you might as well bet them to win. I don't want the Cavs to cover by one or two; I want the plus-money payout on the outright victory.
Cleveland is a team that thrives on shooting better than their opponent—they were 42-3 in the regular season when they won the field goal percentage battle. Detroit's defense is elite at the rim, but they've shown they can be baited into allowing perimeter looks.
If Cleveland’s shooters find their rhythm early while Detroit is still adjusting to the shock to the system of a new series, the Cavs are in a prime position to ignore the spread and just win the game.
Jalen Duren Rebounds Escalator
I am riding the Jalen Duren Rebounds Escalator for Game 1. I’m skipping the median line of 10.5 because I don’t want a median outcome in a game where I expect high variance. Instead, I’m attacking the ceiling: 12+ (+154), 14+ (+400), and 16+ (+1000) at FanDuel.
The logic here is rooted in the regular-season matchups. When these teams met in March, Detroit identified a huge edge: they stopped hunting threes and started crashing the glass. They were +21 in rebounding over those final two meetings, and Duren was the primary engine, putting up monster lines of 16 and 14 rebounds; he grabbed 13 offensive boards across those two games.
Cleveland’s interior defense is great at contesting shots with Mobley and Allen, but they can be vulnerable to second-chance opportunities if they don't find bodies.
We just watched Cleveland nearly double Toronto on the glass in Game 7, but Detroit is far more physical.
Duren finally found his motor at the end of the Magic series, and I think that carries over here.
Between Game 7 tired legs leading to more missed shots and Detroit's intent to play in the muck, I’ll take a light sprinkle on the escalator and hope for a double-digit rebounding clinic.
Sam Merrill Three-Pointers Escalator
I’m also playing the Sam Merrill Three-Pointers Escalator. This is another high-upside look: 3+ (+300), 4+ (+800), and 5+ (+1750).
Merrill was a demon against the Pistons this year, hitting 3, 5, 4, and 3 threes in their four meetings. He shot 15-of-30 (50%) on 7.5 attempts per game.
Merrill is a "one-way" player, and while that usually limits a guy’s floor, I think Kenny Atkinson is prone to playing him too much if he hits one early.
Sam knows exactly what he’s being paid for; if he’s on the court, that ball is going up. In the regular season, he hit three or more threes in 58% of his games. We are getting 3+ threes at +300 in this spot.
Detroit’s defensive identity is to collapse the paint and dare you to beat them from the perimeter. They lead the league in 2-point percentage defense but are built to allow kick-outs.
Merrill averaged 27 minutes against Detroit this season, and if he gets even 20 minutes tonight and fires off 6 or 7 attempts, these escalator prices become a intriguing.
This one might look stupid if he plays six minutes and goes 0-for-1, but the historical mismatch against Detroit’s shell coverage is too strong to ignore.
Picks: Cavaliers Moneyline, Jalen Duren Rebounds Escalator, Sam Merrill Three-Pointers Escalator
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Lakers vs. Thunder First Half Spread Bet
Thunder First Half Spread -10.5
The Lakers finally have to play a real team now. Welcome to the second round, buddy.
Going from the Houston Rockets—who have no offense—to the Oklahoma City Thunder is going to be a massive shock to the system for LA.
The Thunder are the #1 team in the league at home by net rating and they are the #2 first-half team in the entire NBA. Compare that to the Lakers, who rode a first-half net rating that ranked 19th in the regular season—that is the worst mark of any playoff team.
The Lakers are also notoriously not a comeback team. This season, they are 40-2 when leading at halftime, but 14-28 otherwise. If they aren’t leading, they aren’t winning, and I don't seem them jumping out to an early lead against this OKC buzzsaw.
I expect the Thunder to get out early, do their thing, and use that home-court energy to build a double-digit lead before LeBron breaks a sweat in Game 1 tonight.
Pick: Thunder First Half Spread -10.5
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