Nets vs. Wizards Odds, Pick, Prediction: Value on the Under in this Eastern Conference Clash (December 12)

Nets vs. Wizards Odds

The Nets will travel from Indiana to DC to take on the struggling Wizards on Monday night. Will the Nets capitalize on their rest advantage, or will the Wizards defend their home court? Let’s analyze how these teams match up.

Nets Defense Must Limit Transition Opportunities

One of the biggest edges for Brooklyn in this game will be their rest advantage over the Wizards. The Nets rested eight of their best players in Saturday’s game against the Indiana Pacers and still managed to win the game. Due to this rest, the Nets rotation effectively hasn’t played since Friday. On the other hand, the Wizards played their starters on both Friday and Saturday as this will be their third game in four days.

On top of the rest advantage, I also like the way the Nets matchup with this Wizards offense. The Nets defense has markedly improved from their slow start to the season, but they still struggle to finish possessions as they rank dead last in the NBA in Defensive Rebounding Rate. The Wizards aren’t a great offensive rebounding team as they rank just 19^th in Offensive Rebounding Rate (25.4%) on the year.

The Nets also struggle with their transition defense, where they rank 23^rd in points per 100 allowed. Their defense improves to second in points per 100 when forcing teams to play in the halfcourt as they are allowing just 93.2 points per 100 halfcourt plays. Only the Bucks have been better than the Nets defensively in the half court, but the problem for Nets is that they aren’t always forcing teams to play in the half court.

This shouldn’t be an issue for the Nets against this Wizards offense. The Wizards are perfectly league-average in Transition Frequency (15^th) and Transition Offensive Rating (16^th). I expect the Nets to have success limiting the Wizards offense in this one, but monitor the injury report as Royce O’Neale and Nic Claxton are both questionable.

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Wizards Defense Sees Addition By Subtraction

This is the third game in four nights for the Wizards, and there is a chance they will be without Monte Morris and Anthony Gill. The injuries are piling up for the Wizards as they have already been playing without Bradley Beal and Rui Hachimura for the past few games.

Without Beal in the lineup, the Wizards are averaging just 110.3 points per 100 possessions, which places them in the 29^th percentile of NBA offenses. This team has struggled to remain efficient without Beal, and this problem could be exacerbated on Monday night if Morris is unable to go.

Morris has actually been the Wizards most efficient offensive player as the offense has been +11.6 points per 100 better with him on the floor. If he can’t play, I expect the Wizards offense to stagnate, especially considering the matchup edges for Brooklyn’s defense discussed above.

On the flip side of the ball, the Wizards defense should contain the Nets. I am a believer in this Wizards defense as they rank sixth in Rim Frequency Allowed and 9^th-best in 3-point Attempt Rate Allowed. For all of the anticipated offensive issues due to injuries, the defense actually gets better when guys like Morris and Beal sit.

Beal, Morris, and Gill have been the Wizards' three worst defenders in terms of On/Off Differential per 100 possessions. With these guys out, we should see heavy minutes allocated to Kyle Kuzma, Kristaps Porzingis and Deni Avdjia. All three are lengthy defenders who can reasonably switch onto Kevin Durant and survive.

We should also see way more Daniel Gafford, Corey Kispert and Jordan Goodwin minutes; all three of these guys have been positive impact defenders this year. I expect the Wizards to do a decent job of limiting the Nets tonight.

Nets-Wizards Pick

I like the under 227.5 here with all of these key offensive players out for the Wizards. Both teams rank in the bottom 10 in Pace, and the Wizards' Pace should continue to slow down with both of their starting guards out. The Nets defense matches up well with this Wizards team, and I think the Wizards can contain Kevin Durant in this spot. Take under 227.5 and play it down to 225.5 in this one.

Pick: Under 227.5 (Play to 225.5)

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