The New York Knicks and San Antonio Spurs will face off in Game 5 the NBA Finals tonight. Tipoff is set for 8:30 p.m. ET from the Frost Bank Center in San Antonio, Texas. The game will broadcast live on ABC.
The Spurs are 5.5-point favorites over the Knicks on the spread (Spurs -5.5), with the over/under set at 216.5 total points. San Antonio is a -200 moneyline favorite to win outright and extend the series, while New York is listed as a +165 underdog to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Knicks vs. Spurs predictions and NBA Finals Game 5 picks for Saturday, June 13.
Knicks vs Spurs Prediction for NBA Finals Game 5
- Knicks vs Spurs picks: Spurs -5.5 (-115), Under 216.5 (-110) + 4 Prop Bets
My Spurs vs. Knicks Game 5 best bets are on San Antonio to cover the spread (-5.5), the total to stay under 216.5 points, and four prop picks. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NBA odds page.
Knicks vs Spurs Odds for NBA Finals Game 5
| Knicks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -115 | 216.5 -110o / -110u | +165 |
| Spurs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -105 | 216.5 -110o / -110u | -200 |
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Knicks vs Spurs NBA Finals Game 5 Preview
New York Knicks Betting Preview, Analysis
How do these teams carry on after Game 4? That’s the question on everyone’s mind after Wednesday’s incredible 29-point comeback by the Knicks. The highs for New York were so incredibly high, leaving many to wonder if a letdown is likely in Game 5.
The Knicks have proven to be absolute world-beaters in the fourth quarters of these games. Ultimately, as long as they can overcome whatever the results are in the first three quarters, that’s all that matters.
However, there’s still a margin that the Knicks can’t overcome in the fourth quarter if they trail too deep into the game. Maybe that margin is 2, maybe it’s 10, maybe it’s 20—there is a number, we just don’t know it yet.
Expect the Knicks to clean up their defensive process for Game 5, and they may not be as bothered by the officiating as they were in the first half of Game 3. Still, the Knicks are living and dying on razor-thin margins that are incredibly hard to hold over an entire series.
While I do think the Knicks will be able to win by those margins in one of the final three games and ultimately secure the NBA title, this particular spot screams regression.
A great counterpoint to fading New York here is their dominance when they smell blood; the Knicks have won every single closeout game this postseason by double digits. In many cases, those wins have been bloodbaths that likely forced the opposing coaches to ritually burn the game tape in a garbage can while drinking something stiff.
San Antonio Spurs Betting Preview, Analysis
The crushing collapse for the Spurs in Game 4 was so brutal that a lingering hangover seems almost inevitable.
Any objective analysis will lead to the conclusion that the Spurs are the better team in this series, if we define that as: "What team has the best combination of capability (talent) and execution (results) across the entirety of the 2025-26 NBA season?"
The Spurs tracked the better net rating, the better overall record, and the superior statistical profile. However, to win this series and hoist the Larry O'Brien trophy, you don't just have to be the better regular-season team—you simply need to be the better team across 48 minutes in four isolated games.
I don’t think the Spurs putting up a 17-point lead in Game 1 and a 29-point lead in Game 4, only to lose both, automatically means they are the superior squad. But I also don’t think it means they are losers who can’t do anything against the Knicks.
San Antonio is far from drawing dead, especially considering they already proved they can win in Game 3.
Remarkably, the Spurs have led for roughly 70% of the total runtime in this series. That sounds crazy for a team trailing 3-1, but that’s the reality when you hold a 29-point cushion and only surrender the lead for the first time inside the final two minutes.
This doesn't mean the Spurs should have won those games, but it shows that they put themselves in a high-probability winning position each night.
The potential for strategic counters isn't in the Spurs' favor right now. They successfully got Victor Wembanyama more involved by getting him downhill in pick-and-rolls during Games 3 and 4, but the roster essentially gassed out and got complacent after starting red-hot from three-point range in the first half.
Now, the Knicks can easily counter by loading up on their defensive tags to disrupt the lobs to Wemby—to whatever degree you can actually interrupt passes flying toward the young 7-footer.
Knicks vs Spurs Picks, Betting Analysis
Spurs -5.5 (-115)
I like Spurs -5.5 here. My primary series best bet was Over 5.5 games, so I already have some financial exposure to the series getting extended, but I genuinely like the situational spot for San Antonio in Game 5 tonight.
Moving out of the theoretical space, the Spurs have shown they are close enough to protecting these massive double-digit leads to make betting them to win a crucial home game a sound proposition.
This is a prime spot to back the Spurs dictated by home-court advantage, the raw desperation of facing elimination on their own floor (similar to the pressure the Spurs faced and conquered in Game 6 at home against the Thunder), and the overarching context of the series.
If you want a highly volatile angle, a great way to play this is at DraftKings, which lists the Largest Lead: 26+ Points (+310).
Either the Spurs drop the hammer early, avoid a late-game collapse, and force a Game 6, or the Knicks completely run them out of the gym the same way they did in their final games against the Hawks, Sixers, and Cavaliers.
Under 216.5 (-110)
Historical trends show that when a road underdog has the opportunity to close out and win the series in the Finals, the Under is 9-5 since 2003.
While that's a relatively small sample size, it is highly indicative of how these high-stakes closeout environments operate.
Although the series has overall trended more toward the over, both rotations are visibly running out of energy and reaching a point of sheer physical exhaustion.
While Game 6 also projects as an under spot if the series extends, Game 5 stands out as an excellent baseline target for the under.
The Spurs are highly unlikely to recapture that blistering, historic shooting rhythm they discovered in the first half of Game 3, and the Knicks are likely to continue struggling to generate fluid half-court offense within their sluggish, Jalen Brunson "dribble the air out of the ball" isolation scheme.
De'Aaron Fox Over 9.5 Rebounds & Assists (+100)
Despite his catastrophic Game 4 blunder—failing to run the clock out and forcing a wild layup that was blocked by OG Anunoby—the Spurs are absolutely not benching De’Aaron Fox.
It doesn’t matter what bad-faith plus-minus data is being circulated online; the coaching staff understands exactly why they need Fox on the hardwood. He is the only piece of the Spurs' rotation capable of getting the half-court offense organized, a system that completely dies without his point-of-attack presence.
With Fox on the floor, the Spurs’ half-court offense in the postseason is +1.1 points more efficient than when he sits on the bench.
Fox has comfortably cleared this 9.5 rebounds & assists line in each of the past two games despite his scoring struggles in Game 4, and he has hit this over 55 percent of the time throughout the playoffs.
Looking at the broader rotational dynamics, the numbers show clear trends:
- Fox & Harper: Good
- Fox without Harper & Castle: OK
- Castle & Fox: Bad
Dylan Harper is a phenomenal young talent, but San Antonio needs Fox on the floor to execute the table-setting duties, which Harper simply doesn’t do yet.
Stephon Castle Under 6.5 Assists (-125)
Stephon Castle’s minutes could see a noticeable contraction in Game 5 because he is proving to be genuinely harmful to the Spurs' half-court offense with how sloppy he is with the ball.
To put his offensive limitations into perspective, with Castle on the floor, the Spurs' half-court offense plummets -6.4 in net rating compared to when he is on the bench.
Even if the coaching staff continues to deploy him out of necessity for his point-of-attack defensive ability and downhill attacking traits, his playmaking upside remains capped.
Castle has stayed Under 6.5 assists in every single game of this series, making this prop an excellent target as he continues to press and play out of control.
Dylan Harper Over 14.5 Points (-130)
Harper has been spectacular throughout his minutes in this series, anchoring a Spurs' half-court offense that performs +6.0 points better with him on the floor than any other player on the Spurs roster—including Wembanyama.
Lineups featuring Harper operating without Fox and Castle have been flat-out good. However, it is crucial to recognize that Harper is not acting as a traditional point guard out there; he is operating purely as a dynamic scoring wing. He excels at catching the ball on the move and driving downhill or converting open catch-and-shoot looks from deep.
Fox doesn’t have to lose floor time for Harper to see an expanded role, and Harper doesn’t even need an increase in minutes to clear this scoring prop. He has already cruised Over 14.5 points in three of the four games in this series.
Race to 15 Points: Spurs 1Q / Knicks 2Q (+202)
The structural flow of this matchup offers a nice correlation sequence. The Spurs have successfully won the race to 15 points in every single first quarter in this series, while the Knicks have countered by winning the second-quarter race in three of the four games.
This trend is entirely dictated by how the respective coaching staffs stagger their rotations and how those specific bench matchups play out on the floor.
To illustrate the strange statistical splits in this matchup, consider this: The Knicks starters are +19 in this series, while the Spurs starters are +12. This is despite the fact that the Spurs' starting unit has consistently won their minutes and controlled the tempo in each opening frame.
Have I mentioned that this is an incredibly weird series? Take the Spurs to win the first-quarter race to 15 points and parlay it with the Knicks to win the the second-quarter race to 15 for a payout of +202 at DraftKings.
Matt Moore's Knicks vs Spurs Best Bets for NBA Finals Game 5
- Spurs -5.5 (-115)
- Under 216.5 (-110)
- De'Aaron Fox Over 9.5 Rebounds & Assists (+100)
- Stephon Castle Under 6.5 Assists (-125)
- Dylan Harper Over 14.5 Points (-130)
- Race to 15 Points: Spurs 1Q / Knicks 2Q (+202)
