76ers-Celtics Christmas Betting Guide: Will Boston Keep Covering Against Philly?

Betting odds: Philadelphia 76ers at Boston Celtics

• Spread: Celtics -5
• Over/Under: 223.5
• Time: 5:30 p.m. ET
• TV channel: ABC

The 22-12 Philadelphia 76ers will visit the 19-13 Boston Celtics in Christmas Day's third game of the slate. The Celtics have been hot offensively over the past month, but will they keep it up against the defensive talent of Philly? Does that mean there's value on the over/under? Our analysts discuss.

Notable Injuries

• Philadelphia 76ers: Wilson Chandler (quad) is questionable to play.
• Boston Celtics: Aron Baynes (hand) remains out.

Notable Stats

Betting Trends to Know

Since 2005, unders on Christmas Day are 35-20-1 (64%), and the under is 26-9 (74%) in games played before 6 p.m. ET. Games that are played in the afternoon disrupt the usual schedules and routines of players, which can result in lower-scoring games. — John Ewing

Over the last two seasons, including the playoffs, Brad Stevens and the Celtics have faced the Sixers 10 times. Boston is 8-2 straight-up and against-the-spread in those, covering by 6.5 PPG, making Philly Stevens’ most-profitable opponent over that span (+5.7 units).

Did You Know? For the second time in Celtics franchise history, Boston will host a home game on Christmas Day. Last year they did it for the first time, losing 111-103 as 3.5-point favorites — the same spread this Christmas against the Sixers. — Evan Abrams

Locky: Why I Like the Under

After three straight disappointing performances, the Celtics finally showed up with a great performance on Sunday evening, blowing out Charlotte with ease, despite Al Horford being on a minutes limit and Marcus Morris playing hurt.

Now, with a day off, staying at home (this will be Boston’s fourth straight home game), and with Horford getting healthier, I’d expect a continued upward trajectory going into the game against Philadelphia on Christmas.

We’re all quite familiar with how last season played out in the postseason, but in terms of this year’s versions of the teams, we still aren’t really sure how they match up.

The game opening night was incredibly frenetic and anxious throughout; there were tons of wasted possessions, and guys really appeared to be trying to figure things out on the fly. Brad Stevens sarcastically referred to it as “October basketball” afterwards. Not much to take from that game, sadly.

The 76ers have been playing some of their best basketball of the season recently; their blowout over Kawhi-less Toronto demonstrated that. With each team now in the middle of very good recent form defensively (Boston against Charlotte Sunday night was outstanding at that end), I think the under is worth a look at a reasonably-high number of 223.5.

Celtics totals generally don’t get this high; this is only the fifth total at this number or higher for them this season, with two being against the Pelicans and Suns (who obviously run a lot and don’t play defense).

I’m not trying to play Christmas unders JUST because of the trend, but they really seem like great ideas so far in my handicapping. Here’s another. Under 222.5 — Ken Barkley

Moore: Why I Like the Celtics and Under

Boston has been red-hot.

They look like themselves again, at least with Horford back. And this matchup is disastrous for Joel Embiid and the Sixers overall. If Aron Baynes were playing, I’d take Boston at an even higher number.

They have tough defenders to throw at Jimmy Butler and the scheme to neutralize Ben Simmons. Kyrie will do his thing and Boston will cover. And, like Locky, I like the under.— Matt Moore

Mears: Is Boston's Recent Offensive Surge Sustainable?

Don't look now, but over the last month the Celtics rank first in the league with a stellar +11.9 point differential. They're first in offense (117.8 points per 100 possessions) and fifth in defense (106.0/100) during that time. They're 9-4 in that span and probably should have a few more wins than that.

The question, of course, is whether that offensive number is sustainable. Looking more in depth at their numbers, I think there are some legitimate questions.

First, over that span, they sit just 27th in frequency of shots at the rim, although they've been awesome at converting them. They have gotten up a ton of 3-pointers, ranking third in that department, but they've hit non-corner-3s at above a 40% clip. That's unlikely to continue, and Philly ranks third in that same span in limiting opponent 3-pointers.

Boston has dominated in the halfcourt and grabbed offensive rebounds at a top-five clip. The Celtics have also gotten out in transition a ton, ranking first in efficiency on those plays. Unfortunately for this matchup, Philly also ranks top-five in defensive rebound rate and has been solid at limiting fast-break attempts.

You can probably see where I'm going with this: I think Boston's defense is here to stay, but the offense will likely be up and down for the rest of the year. Against the defensive talent of Philly, I think this could be a defensive slugfest. Outside of continued hot shooting from the outside, I think this game will go under.— Bryan Mears

Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.